The chatter about a massive US deal with Saudi Arabia has reached a fever pitch in Washington and Riyadh, but honestly, it’s a lot more complicated than the headlines suggest. We aren't just talking about a simple trade agreement or a basic arms sale. This is a "mega-deal." It's a fundamental restructuring of how the Middle East works.
If you've been following the news, you know the stakes. We’re looking at a potential three-way arrangement involving the United States, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and Israel. It’s a geopolitical jigsaw puzzle where every piece has to fit perfectly, or the whole thing falls apart.
The Core of the US Deal with Saudi Arabia
At its heart, the US deal with Saudi Arabia is about security. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, often called MBS, wants a formal defense treaty with the United States. Think of something similar to what the U.S. has with Japan or South Korea. He wants a "NATO-style" guarantee. If Saudi Arabia gets attacked, the U.S. treats it like an attack on American soil.
That’s a huge ask.
💡 You might also like: Why Every Image of Dr Martin Luther King Jr Tells a Different Story
The U.S. hasn't signed a treaty like that in decades. Why? Because it’s risky. It ties American boots to the ground in one of the most volatile regions on earth. But for Riyadh, it's the ultimate prize. They want to know that if things go south with Iran, the U.S. isn't just going to send a polite letter of protest. They want the full weight of the American military behind them.
But wait, there’s more.
The deal isn't just about missiles and tanks. It involves a massive civil nuclear component. Saudi Arabia wants to enrich its own uranium. They say it’s for power plants to diversify their economy away from oil—Vision 2030 and all that. But the U.S. is nervous. Enrichment is a "dual-use" technology. If you can enrich uranium for a reactor, you’re halfway to a bomb.
Experts like Robert Satloff from the Washington Institute have pointed out that this is the real sticking point. How do you give the Saudis nuclear power without starting a nuclear arms race with Iran? It’s a tightrope walk.
Why the White House is Pushing So Hard
You might wonder why the Biden administration, or any U.S. administration, would want this. It’s about China.
China has been sniffing around the Middle East. They brokered a deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran last year, which caught Washington totally off guard. By locking in a US deal with Saudi Arabia, the U.S. effectively kicks China out of the strategic driver’s seat in the region. It ensures that Saudi Arabia stays in the American orbit for the next fifty years.
Then there’s the Israel factor.
For the U.S., the "carrot" is Saudi normalization with Israel. If the Kingdom recognizes Israel, the Arab-Israeli conflict basically ends on a state-to-state level. It’s the "Holy Grail" of diplomacy. But since October 7th and the ongoing war in Gaza, the price has gone up.
MBS has been clear: no normalization without a "credible, irreversible path" to a Palestinian state.
This is where things get messy. The current Israeli government under Benjamin Netanyahu has shown zero interest in a Palestinian state. So, the US deal with Saudi Arabia is currently sitting on a shelf, waiting for a political miracle in Jerusalem or a massive shift in Riyadh's demands.
The Nuclear Elephant in the Room
Let's talk about the 123 Agreement. That's the technical term for U.S. nuclear cooperation deals. Usually, the U.S. insists on a "Gold Standard"—meaning the country promises not to enrich or reprocess uranium. The UAE agreed to this. Saudi Arabia says no. They want the same rights as any other nation under the Non-Proliferation Treaty.
This isn't just bureaucratic red tape.
If the U.S. caves and lets Saudi Arabia enrich uranium, every other country in the region will want the same thing. Turkey. Egypt. Maybe even the UAE will want to renegotiate. Suddenly, the Middle East is full of enrichment centrifuges. That is a nightmare scenario for non-proliferation experts like Henry Sokolski.
The Defense Pact: Who Actually Benefits?
Critics in the U.S. Senate, like Chris Murphy or Bernie Sanders, are skeptical. They ask: what does the American taxpayer get for promising to die for Riyadh?
Saudi Arabia is a major oil producer, sure. But the U.S. is now the world’s largest producer of oil and gas. The "oil for security" trade that defined the relationship since the 1945 meeting between FDR and King Abdulaziz on the USS Quincy is dying.
The new trade is "tech and regional stability for security."
The U.S. wants Saudi Arabia to limit its use of Chinese technology, specifically Huawei 5G and any Chinese military bases. In exchange, the U.S. provides the security umbrella and high-end AI chips. It’s a high-stakes trade of 21st-century influence.
🔗 Read more: Will There Be a Storm Today? How to Read the Sky When Your App Fails You
Real-World Constraints
We have to be realistic here. A treaty requires a two-thirds majority in the Senate. That’s 67 votes. In today’s polarized Washington, getting 67 people to agree on a lunch order is hard, let alone a defense pact with a country that has a controversial human rights record.
The ghost of Jamal Khashoggi still haunts the halls of Congress.
Many Senators haven't forgotten 2018. They see the US deal with Saudi Arabia as a reward for bad behavior. To get those votes, the administration has to prove that this deal makes America safer. They have to prove it stops a war, rather than dragging the U.S. into one.
The "Less-for-Less" Alternative
Because the "Grand Bargain" is so hard to pull off, diplomats are talking about a "Plan B."
Think of it as a "Lite" version of the US deal with Saudi Arabia. This would involve the security and tech agreements between Washington and Riyadh, but it would set aside the Israel normalization and the formal Senate-ratified treaty for now.
It’s less ambitious. It’s also less stable.
A formal treaty is law; an executive agreement can be torn up by the next president. Riyadh knows this. They saw what happened with the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA). They don't want a deal that expires when the next administration takes office in 2025 or 2029.
What Happens if the Deal Fails?
If the US deal with Saudi Arabia collapses, the "pivot to Asia" becomes a lot more difficult.
Saudi Arabia won't just sit in a vacuum. They will deepen ties with the BRICS nations. They will buy more Chinese missiles. They might even look to Russia for nuclear cooperation. The Middle East becomes a "multipolar" playground where the U.S. is just one of many players, rather than the dominant superpower.
For the average person, this might seem like dry geopolitics. But it affects gas prices, the cost of shipping in the Red Sea, and the likelihood of another major war that could pull in American troops.
Actionable Steps for Staying Informed
The situation changes weekly. If you want to actually track the progress of the US deal with Saudi Arabia without getting lost in the noise, here is what you should do:
- Watch the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Any movement on a defense treaty will start there. If you see hearings being scheduled with State Department officials, the deal is getting close.
- Monitor Saudi-China tech partnerships. If Saudi Arabia announces new, massive AI or 5G deals with Chinese firms like SenseTime or Huawei, it’s a sign that the U.S. deal is stalling.
- Follow the "pathway to statehood" language. Watch the specific phrasing used by the Saudi Foreign Ministry. If they move from "an independent state" to "a process toward a state," they are softening their stance to make a deal with Israel easier.
- Check oil production quotas. Keep an eye on OPEC+ announcements. Saudi Arabia often uses oil production as a signaling device in its negotiations with Washington.
The US deal with Saudi Arabia is the most significant piece of diplomacy in a generation. It’s not just about a few signatures on a piece of parchment; it’s about who writes the rules for the next century in the heart of the world's energy supply. It’s a gamble of historic proportions, and we are currently watching the dice roll.