Let’s be real. Touchdown-only fantasy football is the "wild west" of the hobby. It’s the kind of format that makes your skin crawl when a guy like 2024’s Derrick Henry rumbles for 100 yards but doesn’t find the end zone. In a standard PPR league, that’s a decent 10 or 15 points. In a TD-only league? You get a big fat zero.
It’s brutal. It’s frustrating. It’s also arguably the most "pure" way to play because, at the end of the day, the only thing that actually moves the scoreboard in a real NFL game is a touchdown.
But here’s the problem: most people draft for these leagues using their standard rankings and just "bumping up" the big guys. That is a recipe for a last-place finish. To win, you have to throw away everything you think you know about "talent" and look strictly at opportunity cost and goal-line geometry.
The Math Behind Fantasy Football TD Only Rankings
You’ve got to stop looking at total yardage. Honestly, it doesn't matter. If a receiver catches a 60-yard bomb and gets tackled at the one-yard line, he has failed you. In this format, we are looking for the "closers."
Specifically, we’re looking for players with a high percentage of Red Zone touches. According to 2024 and early 2025 data, roughly 75% of all touchdowns are scored from inside the 20-yard line. If your "star" receiver does most of his damage between the 40s, he’s a trap.
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The Quarterback Value Shift
In most leagues, you can wait on a QB. In TD-only, the elite dual-threat guys are basically cheat codes. Think about Josh Allen. In 2024, he didn't just throw the ball; he had 9 red zone rushing touchdowns. When you combine passing scores with rushing scores, he’s often outscoring your entire RB room combined.
- Elite Tier: Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson.
- The "Stat-Stuffer" Tier: Jared Goff, Matthew Stafford.
- The Gamble: Anthony Richardson (if he stays on the field).
Interestingly, a guy like Jared Goff becomes a top-5 asset here. Why? Because the Lions' offense is a TD machine, and Goff has shown he can toss 30+ scores a year. In PPR, his lack of rushing yards kills him. Here? It doesn't matter at all.
Forget the "Yardage Kings"
We all love Justin Jefferson. He’s arguably the best wideout in the world. But in a TD-only format, is he the #1 pick? Maybe not. In 2024, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Davante Adams (who was then with the Raiders before his move) were arguably more valuable because of their target share inside the 10-yard line.
You want the "big-bodied" guys. The guys who the coach calls on 3rd and Goal from the 4. This is why Mike Evans is a perennial legend in this format. He might disappear for half a game, but he’s always going to get that fade route in the corner of the end zone.
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Running Backs: Bell Cows or Bust
The "scat-back" is dead in this format. You don’t want the guy who catches 5 passes for 40 yards. You want the "plodder" who gets 20 carries and 5 of them are from the 2-yard line.
- Jonathan Taylor: Led the league with 14 red zone rushing TDs in 2024. He’s a gold mine.
- Derrick Henry: The "King" still reigns here. Even at age 31, his role in the Ravens' high-powered offense makes him a TD-only deity.
- Bucky Irving: A massive sleeper from the 2024 season. He outperformed Rachaad White in red zone efficiency and is a name to circle for 2025/2026.
Why Tight Ends are the Secret Weapon
In a TD-only league, the difference between the #1 TE and the #10 TE is often much smaller than in PPR, but the "ceiling" is what matters. George Kittle and Mark Andrews are essentially extra wide receivers when their teams get inside the 10.
Kittle, specifically, is a monster because he stays on the field for every snap. His blocking keeps him out there, and his size makes him the primary read when the field shrinks. If you can't get an elite TE, honestly, don't sweat it. Just stream whoever is playing against a defense that struggles with "big" targets.
Strategy for the 2025-2026 Season
If you're looking at current fantasy football td only rankings, you have to account for team context. A great player on a terrible offense is a nightmare. If the team can't get into the red zone, the player can't score.
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The Vegas Method
Basically, look at the Vegas win totals. If a team like the Bills, Ravens, or Eagles has an over/under of 10.5 or 11.5 wins, they are going to be in the red zone a lot. Draft their second and third options over the "star" player on a team like the Panthers or Patriots (unless that star is the clear goal-line back).
Variance is Your Friend (and Enemy)
Touchdowns are notoriously "sticky" but also highly volatile. You can do everything right and still lose because a random backup fullback vultured three scores. That's just the game. To mitigate this, I usually advocate for "stacking." If you have Josh Allen, you want Dalton Kincaid. If the Bills score, you want to own as much of that scoring potential as possible.
Actionable Next Steps for Your Draft
- Sort by Red Zone Touches: Stop looking at total fantasy points from last year. Find a site that tracks "Carries inside the 5" and "Targets inside the 10." This is your new Bible.
- Draft a QB Early: Don't be the person who waits. In this format, a rushing QB is worth two RB2s.
- Ignore the "Reception" hype: A WR who catches 100 balls but only scores 5 times is useless. Look for the guys with double-digit TD potential, like Ja'Marr Chase or Trey McBride.
- Watch the Offensive Line: A team with a top-5 O-line is more likely to punch it in from the 1-yard line. Focus on the Colts, Lions, and Eagles for your RB targets.
At the end of the day, TD-only leagues are about embracing the chaos. You're betting on the most exciting part of the game. Just make sure you're betting on the guys who actually get the ball when the lights are brightest.