The College Football Playoff is basically a high-stakes poker game now. You’ve got the two biggest guys at the table—SEC Commissioner Greg Sankey and Big Ten Commissioner Tony Petitti—holding all the face cards while everyone else just hopes to stay in the hand. Honestly, it’s a bit of a mess.
Right now, we are staring down a Jan. 23, 2026, deadline. That's the date by which the power brokers have to decide if the playoff stays at 12 teams or balloons into something much bigger. We’re talking 16 teams, or even a massive 24-team bracket that would look more like the FCS playoffs than the traditional bowl system we grew up with.
The Reality of SEC Big Ten CFP Autobids
The phrase "autobids" usually makes fans think of conference champions. But for the Big Ten and SEC, it’s about guaranteed inventory. Specifically, the Big Ten has been pushing for a model where they get a fixed number of automatic qualifiers regardless of where their teams rank. Last year, the buzz was all about "four-four-two-two"—four spots for the Big Ten, four for the SEC, two for the ACC, and two for the Big 12.
It didn't happen. Not yet, anyway.
But why are we even talking about sec big ten cfp autobids like they're a foregone conclusion? Because money.
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The Big Ten and SEC signed a lopsided revenue deal back in 2024 that kicks in this year. They are set to take home about 58% of the $1.3 billion annual CFP payout. When you control that much of the checkbook, you start feeling like you should control the guest list, too.
Tony Petitti has been the main one banging the drum for expansion to 24 teams. He wants those automatic bids because it protects his middle-tier teams. Think about a 9-3 Michigan or Penn State. In a 12-team world, they’re on the bubble. With sec big ten cfp autobids, they’re essentially locked in by October.
Sankey, on the other hand, is kinda playing it cool. The SEC usually prefers at-large spots. Why? Because the committee historically loves the SEC. If you have 11 at-large spots in a 16-team field, the SEC might get six or seven teams in anyway without needing a formal rule. Sankey knows that "automatic" sometimes means "limited." He doesn't want to be capped at four if he has six teams that deserve it.
The 16-Team vs. 24-Team Stalemate
The meeting in Miami on Jan. 18—just a day before the National Championship—is where the rubber meets the road.
- The 16-Team Proposal: Five conference champions get in, plus 11 at-large teams. This is the "safe" play. It satisfies the SEC's hunger for at-large bids and keeps the regular season feeling somewhat exclusive.
- The 24-Team Proposal: This is the Big Ten's baby. It would likely involve eliminating conference championship games entirely. Imagine a "Week 14" that is actually a play-in round.
Heather Dinich from ESPN has been reporting that there’s a real stalemate here. The Big Ten won't agree to 16 unless there’s a written promise to move to 24 within a few years. The SEC isn't ready to commit to a 24-team world yet. They like the 12-team chaos just fine, especially after seeing five SEC teams (Georgia, Ole Miss, A&M, Alabama, and Oklahoma) make the cut in the 2025-26 cycle.
What Happens to the "Other" Guys?
The ACC and Big 12 are basically waiting in the hallway while the Big Two argue in the office. Big 12 Commissioner Brett Yormark has been trying to claim "Power 4" parity, but the math says otherwise. If the sec big ten cfp autobids become a reality, the path for a 10-2 Big 12 team gets significantly harder.
And don't even get started on Notre Dame.
The Irish are currently capped. Under the 12-team rules, they can’t get a first-round bye because they don't play in a conference title game. If the Big Ten gets four autobids, where does that leave a 11-1 Notre Dame? Probably traveling to Columbus or Athens in December for a road game they don't want to play.
Why the Current 12-Team Format is Fragile
The 2025 season showed us exactly why the Big Ten is nervous. We saw Indiana—yes, the Hoosiers—come out of nowhere to grab a #1 seed. Meanwhile, traditional powers like Ohio State were sweating out seeding.
The Big Ten wants more bites at the apple.
If you have a guaranteed four spots, you can lose a game to a rival and not feel like your season is over. It turns the "Game of the Century" into a "Game for Seeding." That's the trade-off. Fans lose the "win or go home" stakes, but the conferences gain financial security.
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"The move to 12 was really well-timed," Sankey told Rich Eisen recently, but he followed that up by saying 16 is the "next right step."
Notice he didn't say 24.
The gap between "16" and "24" is the difference between a postseason tournament and a complete overhaul of college athletics. At 24 teams, you’re playing 16 or 17 games to win a title. That’s an NFL schedule. The players, now legally entitled to revenue sharing starting in 2025-26, are going to want a much bigger piece of that $1.3 billion if they're asked to hit each other for four extra weeks.
Actionable Takeaways for the 2026 Season
If you're a fan trying to make sense of this, here is what you actually need to watch for as the Jan. 23 deadline approaches:
- Watch the Bye Week Logic: Currently, the top four seeds get a bye. The SEC and Big Ten want those byes to go to the best teams, not necessarily conference winners. If they win this fight, a 1-loss SEC team could get a bye over an undefeated Big 12 champ.
- The "5-7" vs. "5-11" Split: If the playoff stays at 12, it's 5 champions and 7 at-large. If it moves to 16, it’ll likely be 5 champions and 11 at-large. This is the SEC's dream scenario because it maximizes their depth.
- The Revenue Trigger: Keep an eye on the "look-in" provisions in the ESPN contract. If the format doesn't change by the deadline, the money stays roughly where it is. If expansion happens, the Big Ten and SEC will demand even more than their current 58% share.
The reality is that sec big ten cfp autobids are less about "fairness" and more about "consolidation." The two conferences have the most viewers, the most brands, and now, the most leverage. Whether you like it or not, the playoff is becoming an invitational for the elite, with a few courtesy seats left for the rest of the country.
If a deal isn't reached by Jan. 23, we stay at 12 teams for 2026. That might actually be the best-case scenario for fans who still care about the regular season, but it's a nightmare for the accountants in Rosemont and Birmingham.
To keep track of how this affects your specific team, you should monitor the official CFP rankings release schedule for the 2026 season and pay close attention to the "Strength of Record" metrics, as these will likely be the primary tool used to justify at-large selections over automatic qualifiers if the 16-team model wins out.