Ever tried to explain how Iran actually works to a friend? It's a mess. Honestly, most people think it’s just another dictatorship with one guy calling all the shots. While that’s kinda true at the top, the reality is a weird, clashing mix of a "republic" and a "theocracy" that looks more like a spiderweb than a ladder.
You’ve got voters going to the polls, but then you’ve got clerics who can basically say, "Nah, we don’t like those candidates," before the race even starts. As of 2026, this system is under more pressure than ever. With the economy in a tailspin—the rial hit a record low of 1.45 million per dollar recently—and protests hitting all 31 provinces, the political structure of Iran isn't just a textbook topic anymore. It’s a survival map for a regime that feels like it’s fraying at the edges.
The Man at the Top: The Supreme Leader
Forget the President for a second. In Iran, the Supreme Leader is the real boss. Since 1989, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has held this spot. He’s 86 now. He’s frail. There are even whispers in early 2026 about whether he’s still the one making the day-to-day calls or if a military junta from the Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) has quietly stepped in.
The Supreme Leader isn't just a figurehead. He’s the Commander-in-Chief. He picks the head of the judiciary. He controls the state media. If Iran decides to make a move on its nuclear program or launch drones, that’s his call. The President is basically his high-level administrator.
The President and the Illusion of Choice
You might remember Masoud Pezeshkian. He took office in 2024. He’s the guy who has to deal with the angry shopkeepers in Tehran and the skyrocketing price of bread. But here’s the kicker: he can’t really change the "big" stuff.
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The President runs the bureaucracy. He handles the budget—or tries to, anyway, since the World Bank says the economy is shrinking. But he doesn't control the police or the army. If the President wants to make a deal with the West and the Supreme Leader says no? Game over. The President is the "face" of the government, but the Supreme Leader is the "brain."
The Gatekeepers: The Guardian Council
This is where it gets really "kinda" undemocratic. Imagine if before any election in your country, a group of twelve old men got to decide who was "moral" enough to run. That’s the Guardian Council.
- Six are clerics picked by the Supreme Leader.
- Six are lawyers picked by the Judiciary (who was also picked by the Supreme Leader).
They vet every single person who wants to be President or join Parliament. In the last few years, they’ve been disqualifying almost everyone who isn't a hardliner. It’s why so many Iranians have stopped voting. When you know the winner has been pre-approved, the "choice" feels fake. They also have a veto on any law passed by Parliament. If a law doesn't "fit" their version of Islam, they kill it.
The Assembly of Experts: The Succession Crisis
There’s a group called the Assembly of Experts. There are 88 of them, mostly elderly clerics. Their only real job? To pick the next Supreme Leader when the current one dies.
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Because Khamenei is 86, this group is currently the most important room in the country. Everyone is watching them. Will they pick Khamenei's son, Mojtaba? Some reports say he’s already quit his religious studies to prep for the role. Others think the IRGC will just bypass the clerics and take over directly. This "succession" is the ticking time bomb in the Iranian system.
The Shadow Government: The IRGC
You can’t talk about Iran’s power without the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. They aren't just soldiers. They are a massive business empire. They own construction companies, telecoms, and ports.
They report only to the Supreme Leader. When the protests broke out in late 2025 and 2026, it wasn't the regular army cracking down—it was the IRGC and their volunteer militia, the Basij. They are the "deep state" that keeps the whole structure from collapsing.
Why This Structure is Failing in 2026
The system was designed for stability, but it’s created a bottleneck. Because the Supreme Leader has all the power, there’s no way for the system to "vent" when people are angry.
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- Economic Paralysis: The regime has lost control of its currency. With a shadow banking system running things to dodge sanctions, the central government can't even pay its own bills.
- The Legitimacy Gap: When the Guardian Council blocks everyone except the most loyalists, the people feel like the "Republic" part of the "Islamic Republic" is a lie.
- Regional Weakness: Iran’s "Axis of Resistance"—groups like Hamas and Hezbollah—has been hammered by recent conflicts. The "strongman" image the structure relies on is fading.
What Happens Next?
If you’re watching Iran right now, don’t just look at the President. Look at the Assembly of Experts and the IRGC. The real "political structure" is moving away from the old clerical model and toward a military-style state.
Practical Steps for Following Iranian Politics:
- Watch the "Bazaar": Historically, when the shopkeepers in Tehran go on strike (like they did in December 2025), the regime is in real trouble.
- Monitor the Assembly of Experts: Any news about their health or emergency meetings is a sign that the succession is happening.
- Track the Rial: Economic desperation is the fuel for political change. If the currency doesn't stabilize, the "structure" won't matter because the people will stop listening to it.
The Iranian system is a masterpiece of checks and balances—but all those checks were designed to protect the Leader, not the people. Now, in 2026, those same walls might be what keeps the government from hearing the ground shifting beneath them.
Actionable Insights for Analysis
To truly understand where Iran is headed, you should focus on the tension between the elected officials (who face the public's anger) and the unelected bodies (who hold the actual keys). Watch for any signs of "defection" within the security forces. If the IRGC or the regular army stops following the Supreme Leader’s orders during protests, the entire structure we’ve discussed will dissolve in days. For now, the "dual power" system remains, but it's never been more brittle.