Back in 2009, a guy named George Friedman dropped a book that sounded like a fever dream written by a pentagon strategist. It was called The Next 100 Years. At the time, everyone was obsessed with the Great Recession and the "decline of the West."
People were convinced the U.S. was over. Done.
Friedman basically laughed at that. He argued that the 21st century wouldn't be the end of American power, but the beginning of it. Honestly, reading it today in 2026 is a weird experience. Some of it feels like he had a crystal ball, and some of it makes you wonder if he was just throwing darts at a map while caffeinated. But here is the thing: he wasn't trying to be a psychic. He was using geopolitics—the cold, hard reality of how geography and power interact—to map out a century.
Why the U.S. Stays on Top (Even When It Looks Messy)
One of the big things people miss about the next 100 years George Friedman describes is the role of the ocean. He is obsessed with it. He points out that the U.S. is the only power that effectively "owns" both the Atlantic and the Pacific. Because of that, nobody can invade us. We are basically an island on a continental scale.
While the news cycles in the 2020s have been full of "internal collapse" talk, Friedman’s framework suggests this is just a cycle. He calls it the "storm before the calm." He predicted that the 2020s would be a period of intense internal friction and economic shifting. Sound familiar?
The core of his argument is that the U.S. doesn't need to be liked; it just needs to be physically secure and technologically dominant. He sees the U.S. as a "clumsy giant" that keeps stumbling into success because its fundamental position is just too good to fail. It's a provocative take, especially when you’re watching the evening news and everything feels like it’s on fire.
The Russia and China Problem
Here is where it gets spicy.
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Most people in 2009 thought China was going to rule the world by 2020. Friedman disagreed. He predicted China would hit a wall because of its geography and its internal wealth gap. He argued that the "coastal China" (the rich part) and the "interior China" (the poor part) would eventually pull the country apart.
As for Russia? He saw them trying to reclaim their old Soviet footprint in the 2010s and 2020s. He specifically mentioned the pressure on Eastern Europe. If you look at the map of Europe in 2026, his "Second Cold War" prediction doesn't look so crazy anymore. But he also predicted that Russia would eventually fragment. He thinks the demographic collapse in Russia—people just aren't having enough kids—is an existential threat that no amount of tanks can fix.
The Rise of the "New Powers"
If China and Russia fade, who fills the gap? This is the part of the book that usually makes people double-take. Friedman puts his money on three specific players:
- Poland: Yeah, you read that right. He thinks Poland will become the leader of a "Polish Bloc" in Eastern Europe, serving as the main buffer against Russia and eventually becoming a major economic engine.
- Turkey: He sees Turkey reclaiming its Ottoman-era influence, becoming the dominant power in the Islamic world and a major Mediterranean player.
- Japan: Despite their aging population, he argues Japan’s technological edge and naval necessity will force them to become more aggressive again.
It’s easy to roll your eyes at the idea of Poland being a superpower, but look at their military spending over the last few years. They are currently building one of the most formidable land forces in Europe. Friedman’s logic is that when a big power (like Russia) collapses, the neighbors who are most organized and most scared are the ones who rise.
Space: The Ultimate High Ground
Friedman doesn't just talk about dirt and water. He goes full sci-fi in the second half of the book.
He argues that by the mid-21st century, the battle for global dominance will move into orbit. He calls the U.S. "the master of space." He predicts the development of "Battle Stars"—manned space stations that can monitor and strike anywhere on Earth.
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He also makes a huge bet on space-based solar power. Imagine giant satellites capturing solar energy 24/7 and beaming it down to Earth via microwaves. He thinks this will solve the energy crisis and end our dependence on oil and gas. It sounds wild, but with companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin basically making space travel a routine thing now, the "crazy" factor is definitely dropping.
A World War in 2050?
He actually predicts a global conflict around the year 2050.
But it’s not a nuclear apocalypse. In his version of the next 100 years, the war is fought between the U.S. (and its allies like Poland) against a coalition of Japan and Turkey. He thinks it will be a high-tech, precision war fought mostly in space and with "hyperspeed" drones.
The goal wouldn't be to occupy countries, but to break the other side's ability to control space. According to him, the U.S. wins, leading to a "Golden Age" in the late 20th century.
The Mexico Factor
The very end of the century—the part we won't be around to see—revolves around Mexico.
Friedman argues that by 2080, Mexico will be one of the top economies in the world. Because of the shared border and the massive cultural integration in the American Southwest, he predicts a "silent" struggle for control of that region. It’s a demographic and cultural shift that he thinks will be the biggest challenge the U.S. has ever faced.
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He basically says that the border isn't just a line on a map; it's a tectonic plate that will eventually shift.
Is he actually right?
Look, forecasting is a messy business.
Friedman himself admits he gets things wrong. He missed the "shale revolution" that made the U.S. energy independent way faster than he expected. He also arguably underestimated the sheer speed of AI development.
But the value of his work isn't in getting every date right. It’s in the logic. He teaches you to stop looking at what leaders say and start looking at what the land forces them to do.
Nations don't do what they want; they do what they must.
Actionable Insights for the Long-Term Thinker
If you want to apply the "Friedman Method" to your own life or business, here is how you do it:
- Watch the Demographics: Stop looking at GDP and start looking at birth rates. Countries with shrinking populations (like Russia, China, and much of Western Europe) are facing a "death spiral" that no policy can easily fix.
- Bet on "Buffer States": Keep a close eye on countries that sit on the edge of collapsing empires. Poland and Turkey are the big ones. Their growth is driven by a "move or die" necessity.
- Infrastructure is Destiny: The reason the U.S. is so hard to displace isn't its "values"—it's its river systems and deep-water ports. Look for regions with natural geographic advantages that are currently under-utilized.
- Ignore the "Decline" Hype: Every 20 years, people say the U.S. is finished. Usually, it's just a transition from one economic cycle to another. Focus on the technological "high ground" (Space, AI, Energy) rather than the political drama of the week.
The next century is going to be chaotic, but it’s not random. There is a pattern to the madness.
To understand the current shifts in Eastern Europe, research the Three Seas Initiative. It’s the real-world version of the "Polish Bloc" Friedman predicted, focusing on energy and infrastructure connections from the Baltic to the Black Sea.