You’d be forgiven for thinking the JD Cymru Premier is a foregone conclusion every single year. For over a decade, The New Saints FC games have followed a predictable rhythm: they show up, they dominate, and they lift the trophy. But as we move into the guts of the 2025/26 Championship Conference, things feel... different. Honestly.
If you just glance at the table, you see TNS at the top with 53 points. Business as usual, right? But look closer at the 3-1 loss to Connah’s Quay Nomads back on New Year’s Eve. That wasn't just a fluke result. It was a signal that the gap—while still there—is getting weirdly narrow in specific moments.
The Reality of the New Saints FC Games This Season
Let’s talk about the schedule because it’s brutal. The club just released the Phase Two fixtures on January 16, 2026. If you’re planning your weekends, circle January 24th. That’s when the Championship Conference kicks off at Park Hall against Barry Town United.
People often assume TNS can just coast through these home games. They can't. Not this year. Craig Harrison’s side has been balancing a massive workload. Remember, this is the first Welsh side to really taste the proper grit of European league phases. While the dream of a deep UEFA run ended earlier than some hoped this summer, the "European hangover" is a real thing. It drains the legs. It makes those rainy Tuesday nights in Connah's Quay feel twice as long.
The Matches That Actually Matter
Most fans wait for the big showdowns, but the title is usually won or lost in the games nobody talks about.
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- February 7, 2026: TNS vs Penybont. This one is huge because it’s been picked up for live coverage by S4C. There’s a different kind of pressure when the cameras are on and the rest of the league is watching for a stumble.
- March 3, 2026: The trip to the Essity Stadium to face Connah’s Quay. This is the big one. If John Disney’s men want to stop a fifth consecutive title, they have to win here.
- April 3, 2026: The return leg at Park Hall. If the league hasn't been wrapped up by then, this Friday night clash will be absolute chaos.
Jordan Williams has been a machine, netting 18 goals across all competitions so far. But a team can’t live on one striker alone. We’ve seen youngsters like those coming through the academy—and even the massive progression in the Women’s setup with players like Ava Homer signing semi-pro terms—showing that the "Saints way" is about the system, not just the individuals.
Why the "Invincible" Tag is a Myth
There’s this weird misconception that The New Saints never lose. They do. They lost to Briton Ferry Llansawel earlier this season. They’ve dropped points in stalemates at Jenner Park.
The 2025/26 season has seen a recruitment shift. Bringing in guys like Dominic Corness from Liverpool’s academy and Harvey Godsmark-Ford from Leicester isn't just about winning the Welsh league. It's about building a squad that doesn't get bullied in Europe. But sometimes, those technical, "academy-style" players struggle when they're playing on a plastic pitch in a gale-force wind against a side that’s happy to sit ten men behind the ball.
Honestly, it’s sort of fascinating. You have the most professional setup in the country, yet they still have to navigate the "old school" charm of the Cymru Premier.
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Breaking Down the Numbers (No Boring Tables)
If you look at the stats, TNS averages about 2.67 goals a game. That’s high. But they’re also conceding more than one goal per match on average. For a team that used to keep clean sheets for fun, that’s a crack in the armor.
The gap at the top is currently six points over Connah's Quay. In any other league, that’s a cushion. In the Championship Conference, where you play the top six teams home and away in a concentrated burst, that lead can vanish in a fortnight.
What to Watch For in the Coming Weeks
If you're following The New Saints FC games, stop looking at the results and start looking at the substitutions. Harrison has been rotating heavily. He has to. With the Nathaniel MG Cup and the JD Welsh Cup still in play, the squad depth is being tested to the limit.
We saw a narrow 2-1 win over Bala Town recently where the Saints looked leggy. They got the job done, but it wasn't the champagne football fans expect. That’s the sign of a champion, sure, but it’s also a sign that the chasing pack is sniffing blood.
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Practical Steps for Fans and Analysts
If you want to stay ahead of the curve on the 2026 title race, don't just check the BBC scores.
- Monitor the S4C Sgorio schedule. TNS games are frequently moved for TV, and a Friday night kickoff at Park Hall has a completely different energy than a Saturday afternoon.
- Watch the injury reports for Jordan Williams. He is the focal point. If he’s out for even two weeks, the goal production drops significantly, as we saw during the goalless draw at Jenner Park.
- Keep an eye on the "Blue Turtle Arena." The away fixture against Colwyn Bay on February 13th is a classic trap game. It’s a tight ground, the fans are right on top of you, and it’s exactly where TNS has slipped up in the past.
The season ends on April 18, 2026. By then, we’ll know if this was a "transition year" for the Saints or if they’ve managed to maintain their stranglehold on Welsh football despite the increased competition. It's going to be a wild ride through the spring.
Actionable Insights for the Phase Two Title Race:
- Check the Weather: Seriously. Heavy rain in February affects the ball speed on synthetic surfaces, often leveling the playing field for defensive-minded opponents.
- Track Point Deductions: Keep an ear to the ground regarding FAW licensing and potential point deductions for other clubs, as these administrative shifts often impact the Saints' lead more than the actual games do.
- Watch the Youth: Follow the development of academy graduates being integrated into the first team during the final 20 minutes of games; they are the key to maintaining intensity during the fixture pile-up in March.