You’re staring at the screen. You see a team with a minus sign next to a big number, like -240, and another team with a plus sign, maybe +200. If you’ve ever wondered what's the money line and why everyone uses it instead of just picking who wins, you aren't alone. It is the bedrock of sports betting.
It's simple. No point spreads. No "covering." You are just picking the winner of the game. But there's a catch, and that catch is how the math keeps the bookies in business.
The money line is essentially the market's way of leveling a playing field that isn't level. In a perfect world, every game would be a coin flip. In the real world, the Kansas City Chiefs playing a high school team wouldn't be a fair fight. To make people actually want to bet on the high schoolers, the payout has to be massive. That’s the money line in a nutshell.
The Basics of Reading the Plus and Minus
When you look at a betting board, the symbols tell you everything. The minus symbol (-) identifies the favorite. This is the team or athlete that the "sharps" and the oddsmakers expect to win. Because they are more likely to win, you have to risk more money just to make a small profit.
Think of the number 100 as your North Star.
If you see the San Francisco 49ers at -150, that number is telling you how much you need to bet to win $100. You put up $150. If they win, you get your $150 back plus $100 in profit. Total payout: $250.
Now, look at the underdog. They get the plus sign (+). If the opposing team is +130, that number tells you how much profit you make on a $100 bet. You put down $100. They pull the upset. You walk away with your original $100 plus $130 in profit.
It's an inverse relationship.
The bigger the number next to the minus sign, the heavier the favorite. A -500 favorite is a "sure thing" in the eyes of the market, but you’re risking a lot of capital for a tiny return. Conversely, a +500 underdog is a long shot, a "hail mary" that could quintuple your money.
Why Does the Money Line Move?
Lines aren't static. They breathe.
If a star quarterback gets a migraine two hours before kickoff, that -200 line might plummet to -110. Bookmakers like DraftKings or FanDuel aren't trying to guess the exact score; they are trying to balance their books. They want an equal amount of money on both sides so they can just collect the "vig" or the "juice"—the house's cut.
If everyone and their mother starts hammering the favorite, the sportsbooks will make the favorite more expensive (changing -150 to -170) to encourage people to bet on the underdog. It’s supply and demand. Pure and simple.
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What’s the Money Line vs. the Point Spread?
A lot of newcomers get these confused. In a point spread bet, you’re betting on the margin of victory. If the spread is -7.5, the favorite has to win by 8 or more.
With the money line, the margin is irrelevant.
A win by one point is the same as a win by fifty. This is why many experienced bettors prefer the money line for underdogs. If you think a team is going to keep it close and potentially win, why take +7.5 points at -110 odds when you could take the money line at +280?
If they win outright, the payout is vastly superior.
But there is a psychological toll. Watching a team you bet on the money line lose by a last-second field goal hurts more than if you had the spread. You get nothing. Zero. If you had the points, you might still cash your ticket. It's a trade-off between safety and raw profit potential.
The Hidden Math: Implied Probability
This is where it gets nerdy, but stay with me. Every money line represents a percentage.
If a team is -200, the "implied probability" of them winning is $66.7%$. If you think their actual chance of winning is $75%$, you have found what bettors call "value."
Here is the formula for those who want to do the math on a favorite:
$$Negative\ Odds / (Negative\ Odds + 100) * 100 = Implied\ Probability$$
For an underdog (+150):
$$100 / (Positive\ Odds + 100) * 100 = Implied\ Probability$$
If you aren't a math person, just remember this: the sportsbook always builds in a little extra percentage for themselves. This is why if you see two perfectly matched teams, the line isn't +100 for both. It’s usually -110 for both. That extra 10 is the "tax" you pay for the privilege of losing your money.
Common Strategies for Money Line Betting
Stop betting on heavy favorites. Seriously.
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Betting on a -400 favorite feels safe. You win $$25$ for every $$100$ you bet. You feel like a genius. But then, one fluke injury or a bad referee call happens, and the favorite loses. Now, you have to win four more bets at those same odds just to get back to even.
It’s a treadmill that usually leads to a cliff.
The "Dog" Mentality
Many professional bettors exclusively play underdogs on the money line. They look for "live dogs"—teams that the public hates but the data likes. Maybe a team lost three games in a row, so the public thinks they suck. But if those three losses were against the top three teams in the league and they were all close games, that team might be undervalued at +150.
The Three-Way Money Line
If you’re betting on soccer or hockey, you might see a "Three-Way" money line. This adds a third option: The Draw.
In a standard money line, if the game ends in a tie (rare in the NFL, impossible in MLB), it’s usually a "push," and you get your money back. In a three-way line, if you bet on a team to win and it ends in a draw, you lose. The odds are better because there's more risk, but it’s a trap for the unwary.
Real World Example: The 2023 Super Bowl
Let's look at a real scenario. In Super Bowl LVII, the Philadelphia Eagles were slight favorites over the Kansas City Chiefs.
The money line was hovering around:
- Philadelphia Eagles: -125
- Kansas City Chiefs: +105
If you believed in Patrick Mahomes (a wise choice, historically), a $100 bet on the Chiefs money line netted you $105 in profit. If you liked Philly, you had to put up $125 to make $100.
Because the Chiefs won 38-35, the money line bettors for KC got paid. It didn't matter that the game was a nail-biter. It didn't matter if they won by one or twenty. The outcome was binary.
Mistakes to Avoid When Betting the Money Line
Most people treat sports betting like a hobby, which is fine. But if you want to keep your bankroll alive, you have to avoid the "parlay trap."
We’ve all seen the screenshots. Someone turns $5 into $50,000 by picking 12 different money line favorites. It looks easy. It isn't.
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Sportsbooks love money line parlays. They are their biggest profit centers. When you tie multiple money lines together, the "juice" compounds. One "safe" -500 favorite losing ruins the whole thing. If you find yourself saying "there's no way this team loses," that's usually the moment you should put your wallet away.
Another mistake? Chasing.
You lose a $100 bet on a +120 underdog. You’re annoyed. You decide to put $300 on a -300 favorite just to "get your money back." This is the fastest way to a zero balance. The -300 favorite doesn't care about your previous losses. The math stays the same.
The Nuance of Different Sports
Money line betting changes depending on the sport.
In baseball, the money line is the king. There isn't really a "point spread" in the same way, though they have something called a "Run Line" (always 1.5 runs). Because baseball is so high-variance—the worst team in the league still wins 60 games—underdogs are a gold mine if you pick your spots.
In the NBA, the money line for favorites can be absurd. You’ll see -1000 or -2000. Betting $1,000 to win $100 is a recipe for a heart attack. In basketball, the spread is usually a better way to play favorites.
Finding the "Sweet Spot"
Most sharp bettors look for money lines in the -120 to +140 range. This is where the risk-to-reward ratio is the most balanced. You aren't over-leveraging your bankroll on a favorite, and you aren't praying for a miracle on a massive underdog.
Moving Forward With Money Line Bets
If you're ready to actually place a bet, do yourself a favor and "line shop."
Don't just use one app. One sportsbook might have the Giants at +110 while another has them at +125. That might seem like a small difference, but over a hundred bets, that $15 difference is the gap between being a winning bettor and a losing one.
Actionable Next Steps for Money Line Betting:
- Check the Implied Probability: Before you place a bet, convert the money line to a percentage. Ask yourself: "Does this team win this game more often than this percentage suggests?" If the answer is a confident yes, you have a bet.
- Watch the Injury Reports: In the modern era of "load management" and late scratches, money lines can swing violently. Set alerts for beat writers on X (formerly Twitter) for the teams you're eyeing.
- Manage Your Units: Never bet your whole bankroll on one game. A "unit" is typically $1%$ to $3%$ of your total gambling budget. If you have $1,000, your bets should be $10 to $30.
- Track Your Results: Use a spreadsheet or an app to track every money line bet you make. You might find you're great at picking MLB underdogs but terrible at NFL favorites. This data is more valuable than any "expert" tip.
The money line is the most transparent way to gamble. It strips away the complexity of point totals and spreads and leaves you with the oldest question in sports: Who is going to win? Just make sure you aren't paying too high a price for the answer.