If you thought the ceasefire that started last October was the end of the story, you haven't been watching the news this week. Things are getting weird. Fast.
Honestly, the latest on Hamas and Israel feels less like a traditional peace process and more like a high-stakes corporate merger that nobody actually agreed to. We are officially in "Phase 2," but if you ask anyone on the ground in Gaza or the halls of the Knesset in Jerusalem, they’ll tell you the reality is a mess of contradictions.
On one hand, we have the U.S. moving full steam ahead with this new "Board of Peace." On the other, we have Israeli ministers openly revolting against the plan, and Hamas—while agreeing to dissolve its government—refusing to hand over its guns.
It's a lot. Let’s break down what’s actually happening right now, on January 18, 2026.
The Board of Peace: A Billion-Dollar Seat at the Table?
The biggest headline today is the "Board of Peace." This isn't your grandfather’s UN subcommittee. It’s a body created by the Trump administration to oversee the reconstruction of Gaza, and the entry requirements are... unique.
According to reports just hitting the wires this morning, several more countries—including Jordan, Greece, Cyprus, and Pakistan—have been invited to join. But here’s the kicker: while membership usually lasts three years, any country that coughs up $1 billion in cash for Gaza reconstruction gets a permanent seat.
Basically, it’s a "pay-to-play" model for global diplomacy.
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The executive committee is already a "who's who" of the current political landscape. You've got Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Jared Kushner, and even former British PM Tony Blair in the mix. But the inclusion of Turkey and Qatar is where the real friction starts.
Why Netanyahu is Losing His Cool (and Maybe His Government)
Benjamin Netanyahu is currently stuck between a massive rock and a very hard place. On Saturday, his office released a rare, stinging critique of the U.S., claiming the new Gaza executive committee wasn't coordinated with Israel and goes against their policy.
Why the drama? It’s his coalition.
His far-right ministers, Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir, are absolutely fuming. Smotrich took to X (formerly Twitter) today to basically say that countries like Qatar and Turkey, who have hosted Hamas leaders, shouldn't have a "foothold" in Gaza. He’s calling for full-blown annexation and Israeli settlements instead.
Ben-Gvir went a step further, telling Netanyahu to just gear up for war again.
Meanwhile, Netanyahu has a domestic deadline that could end his career. He has exactly one week to pass the first reading of the 2026 state budget. If he doesn't, the Knesset dissolves, and Israel heads to early elections. The ultra-Orthodox parties are currently holding the budget hostage over draft exemptions. It’s a political pressure cooker.
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Phase 2: Disarmament vs. Reality
The U.S. officially declared the start of "Phase 2" of the ceasefire on January 14. In theory, this is the part where the guns go away and the cranes move in.
Steve Witkoff, the U.S. Special Envoy, is pushing a plan that includes:
- The NCAG: A new "National Committee for the Administration of Gaza" led by Dr. Ali Shaath, a technocrat intended to replace Hamas rule.
- Hamas Disarmament: The U.S. is even floating a "buy-back" program for small arms. Think of it like those city programs where you trade a handgun for a grocery gift card, but with machine guns and RPGs.
- The Final Hostage: There is still one deceased Israeli hostage, Ran Gvili, whose remains haven't been returned. The U.S. says there will be "serious consequences" if Hamas doesn't hand him over immediately.
But here is the problem: Hamas says they’ll dissolve their government, but they haven't said a word about dismantling their military.
You can't really have a "technocratic government" if the guys with the tunnels and the rifles are still standing in the corner.
The Brutal Winter in Gaza
While politicians argue about boards and budgets, the situation for people in Gaza is desperate. It’s mid-January, and the weather is lethal.
At least eight children have died of hypothermia this winter. Just yesterday, a 27-day-old baby became the latest victim. Heavy rains and wind are collapsing the makeshift tents that have become permanent homes for hundreds of thousands of people.
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Even though the ceasefire is technically "active," the fighting hasn't totally stopped. Since October, over 400 Palestinians have been killed in various "clashes" and strikes. The UN reports that 14 out of 17 aid movements were facilitated last week, which is an improvement, but still not enough when you've got sewage overflowing into tent camps in Deir al-Balah.
What’s Next? Actionable Insights
If you’re trying to make sense of the latest on Hamas and Israel, don't look for a clean "peace deal" anytime soon. Instead, watch these three specific indicators over the next seven days:
- The Knesset Budget Vote: If Netanyahu fails to pass the budget by next week, the Israeli government falls. A new election would throw the entire U.S. peace plan into total limbo.
- The Davos Announcement: Watch the World Economic Forum in Davos this week. That’s where the official list of "Board of Peace" members—and their billion-dollar checks—is expected to be finalized.
- The "Yellow Line" Movement: The IDF is still deployed in about 50% of Gaza. Watch to see if they actually pull back to the so-called "Yellow Line" as Phase 2 requires. If they don't move, Phase 2 is essentially dead on arrival.
The transition from a "truce" to "governance" is the hardest part of any conflict. Right now, the gap between the diplomatic "Board of Peace" and the mud-soaked tents in Gaza is wider than ever.
To stay informed, focus on verified reports from the ground via OCHA (the UN's humanitarian office) and monitor the Israeli legislative calendar. These will give you a much clearer picture than the "declarative moves" being announced from Washington.
Next Steps for Following the Situation:
- Track the NCAG: Follow the appointments of the 14 Palestinian technocrats under Ali Shaath to see if they actually gain control of utility services (water/electricity) in Gaza City.
- Monitor the "Board of Peace" funding: Keep an eye on which nations (like Hungary or the UAE) commit the $1 billion for a permanent seat, as this will dictate who actually controls the reconstruction contracts.
- Watch the Israeli High Court: There are pending challenges regarding the legality of the "Board of Peace" involvement that could derail the Israeli government's participation.