It is mid-January, and usually, Californians are looking at the snowpack in the Sierras or worrying about mudslides. But if you’ve lived here long enough, you know the "fire season" doesn't really have an expiration date anymore.
Honestly, the latest on ca wildfires is a weird mix of good news and "don't get too comfortable" warnings. Right now, most of the state is breathing a sigh of relief because the U.S. Drought Monitor finally showed something we haven't seen in 25 years: zero drought. None. Zip. From Modoc down to San Diego, the map is finally clear of those angry red and orange splotches.
But then you look at the news from yesterday.
Just last night, January 16, the Carter Fire sparked up in Los Angeles County. It’s burning on private land, and while it isn't a massive "megafire" yet, it’s a localized reminder that dry fuel doesn't care what the calendar says. We also just hit the one-year anniversary of the Eaton and Palisades fires, which basically trashed parts of LA County last January.
What’s Actually Happening on the Ground?
If you check the CAL FIRE incident maps today, it looks quiet. Mostly.
There are about 12 active wildfires listed across the state, but they are tiny—most under an acre. The "big" news isn't a current wall of flame, but rather the cleanup and the weird weather patterns. For example, in Moss Landing, they’re still cleaning up that massive lithium-ion battery fire from a year ago. It’s a mess of steel and toxic debris that won't be fully gone until mid-2026.
✨ Don't miss: Simo Häyhä: The Real Story Behind the White Death Confirmed Kills
Here is the thing: Southern California is currently sitting in a weird "winter heat wave." We’re talking mid-80s in the valleys. Usually, that’s a recipe for disaster with the Santa Ana winds, but because we had such a soaking December, the plants are actually holding onto some moisture.
The "Whiplash" Weather Factor
Meteorologists are calling this "weather whiplash."
We go from record-breaking rain to bone-dry offshore wind events. This constant back-and-forth makes it incredibly hard for fire crews to predict the next big break. While Northern California is looking "normal" for fire potential through March, Southern California is a different story.
- The La Niña Problem: We are currently in a weakening La Niña cycle.
- The Result: Below-average rain is expected through May 2026 for the southern half of the state.
- The Risk: All that "good" rain we got last year? It grew a ton of grass. Now, if that grass stays dry during this winter heat, it becomes a carpet of tinder by spring.
Why You Shouldn't Ignore the "Small" Fires
The latest on ca wildfires isn't always about the 100,000-acre monsters. It's about the frequency.
Take the Magnolia Incident in Riverside a few days ago. It was technically a "structure fire" at a commercial business, but in California, a structure fire in a windy valley can turn into a brush fire in about six seconds. It took 28 firefighters to knock that one down before it could jump into the nearby vegetation.
Governor Newsom recently suspended some building codes for people rebuilding from the 2025 firestorms. It’s a move to help people get back into homes faster without getting bogged down in the new 2026 regulations that just kicked in. It’s a bit of a bureaucratic scramble to keep up with the fact that people are losing homes faster than they can build them.
The Experts Are Worried About "Standing Dead"
I was reading some notes from the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC), and they keep mentioning "standing dead vegetation." Basically, even if it rains, the old, dead trees from previous droughts are still there. They’re like giant matches standing in the forest.
The 2026 outlook shows that while the surface might look green, the "fuel load"—the amount of stuff available to burn—is still incredibly high in the Sierras.
Key Stats for 2026 (Year-to-Date)
| Metric | Current Status |
|---|---|
| Total Fires | 12 |
| Acres Burned | ~1 |
| Fatalities | 0 |
| Structures Lost | 0 |
Compare that to this time last year, when we already had over 100 fires and 40,000 acres burned. We are in a much better spot, but the "above normal" fire potential for Southern California is looming for February and March.
What You Should Actually Do Right Now
If you live in a WUI (Wildland-Urban Interface) zone, don't let the green grass fool you.
- Check your vents. Embars are the real killers. They drift miles ahead of a fire and get sucked into attic vents. If you haven't upgraded to ember-resistant mesh, do it now while the contractors aren't slammed.
- Review your "Go Bag." It sounds cliché, but after the Palisades fire last year, people realized that 15 minutes to evacuate is a lot shorter than it sounds.
- Manage the "Flash Fuels." That pretty green grass in your yard is going to be brown and dead by May. Mow it now while it's still damp and the spark risk from your mower is low.
- Sign up for Watch Duty. If you're not using the app, you're behind. It’s often faster than the official reverse-911 calls.
The state is currently at a "Preparedness Level 1," which is the lowest it gets. It’s the perfect time to do the boring maintenance that saves houses. We’ve got a lucky break with this drought-free status, so we might as well use the breathing room before the heat really turns up.
Actionable Next Steps:
Log onto the CAL FIRE "Ready for Wildfire" website and check the specific "Low-Cost Retrofit List." Most people think they need a $20,000 roof to be safe, but often, just clearing debris from rain gutters and installing $50 vent screens makes the difference between a house standing or burning when the embers start flying this summer.