You’ve probably seen the headlines every time a new Pope steps onto the balcony of St. Peter’s Basilica. People start whispering about a 12th-century Irish saint and a list of cryptic Latin phrases. They call it the Prophecy of the Popes. It’s a series of 112 short, enigmatic mottos supposedly written by Saint Malachy, describing every Bishop of Rome until the end of the world. According to this list, we are currently living under the final entry. The last pope St Malachy predicted is allegedly sitting on the throne right now.
Is it true? Honestly, it’s complicated.
History is messy. While the prophecy is attributed to St. Malachy, a 12th-century Archbishop of Armagh, it didn't actually surface until 1595. Arnold de Wyon, a Benedictine monk, published it in his book Lignum Vitae. For centuries, believers have marveled at how accurately the mottos seem to fit the Popes who reigned before the book was published. For example, "Ex castro Tiberis" (From a castle on the Tiber) perfectly describes Celestine II. But critics—and there are many—point out that the accuracy drops off a cliff for the Popes who came after 1595. It’s almost like someone backdated a document to influence a papal election.
The Final Motto: Who is Petrus Romanus?
The most chilling part of the document is the very last entry. Unlike the others, which are just short snippets, this one is a full paragraph. It speaks of "Peter the Roman" who will feed his sheep through many tribulations, after which the "city of seven hills" will be destroyed and the "dreadful judge will judge his people."
If you count the popes on the list, Pope Francis is effectively that 112th figure.
People have tried to link Jorge Bergoglio to "Peter the Roman" in some pretty creative ways. Some point to his namesake, St. Francis of Assisi, whose father’s name was Pietro. Others note that as the Pope, he is the Bishop of Rome, making him "Roman" by definition. It’s a bit of a reach, isn't it? If you look at the history of the Catholic Church, every Pope is technically a "Peter" and most are "Roman" in their ecclesiastical identity.
The prophecy basically suggests that the last pope St Malachy envisioned would oversee the literal end of the Vatican. This isn't just some fringe internet theory; it’s a narrative that has shaped how millions of people view modern geopolitics and Church scandals. When Benedict XVI resigned in 2013—the first Pope to do so in centuries—the Malachy enthusiasts went wild. They saw it as the final signal that the end-times clock was ticking.
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Why Historians Are Skeptical (And You Should Be Too)
Let's get real for a second. Most serious historians think the prophecy is a 16th-century forgery.
There’s a guy named Louis-Donat Guillaudeau. He was a 17th-century scholar who first suggested the whole thing was a hit job intended to help Cardinal Girolamo Simoncelli get elected. The theory goes that the "motto" for the pope to be elected in 1590 was "Ex antiquitate Urbis" (From the old city). Simoncelli happened to be from Orvieto, which translates to "old city." It's the classic "rig the prophecy to win the job" move.
- Malachy’s contemporary biographer, St. Bernard of Clairvaux, never mentioned the prophecies.
- The Vatican has never officially recognized them as authentic.
- The descriptions for modern popes are often so vague they could fit anyone.
Take Pope John Paul II. His motto was "De labore solis" (Of the eclipse of the sun). Believers point out he was born during a solar eclipse and buried during one. That’s a cool coincidence. But is it divine intervention or just the law of large numbers? If you throw enough metaphors at the wall, some of them are going to stick.
The Psychology of the "Last Pope" Obsession
Why do we care so much? Basically, humans hate uncertainty. We want to believe there’s a roadmap, even if that roadmap leads to a cliff. The idea of the last pope St Malachy provides a narrative framework for the chaos of the modern world. When the Church faces internal strife or the world feels like it’s falling apart, people turn to old texts to find a sense of order.
It’s about "Confirmation Bias." If you want to believe Francis is the last Pope, you’ll find the evidence. You'll ignore the 500 years of missed predictions and focus on the one Latin phrase that sounds sorta like his hometown or his middle name.
The Catholic Church itself is a 2,000-year-old institution. It’s survived the fall of the Roman Empire, the Black Death, the Reformation, and two World Wars. Historians like Thomas Noble or Eamon Duffy often emphasize that the papacy is incredibly resilient. The idea that a 16th-century list could accurately predict its demise is, to put it mildly, a hard pill to swallow for those who study the long-arc of ecclesiastical history.
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The Strange Case of Pope Benedict XVI
Before Francis, we had Benedict XVI. His motto was "Gloria olivae" (The Glory of the Olive). People scrambled to find a connection. The Benedictines have a branch called the Olivetans. Boom. There it is. But Benedict wasn't an Olivetan. He just took the name Benedict.
This highlights the biggest problem with the Malachy list: it’s infinitely malleable. You can twist almost any life story to fit a two-word Latin phrase. If the motto had been "The Blue Dog," someone would have found a way to link it to a Pope’s childhood pet or the color of his childhood home’s shutters.
Real-World Impact of the Prophecy
It’s not just a fun trivia fact. These prophecies influence how some Catholics perceive the current papacy. There is a vocal minority within the Church who use the Malachy prophecies to justify their opposition to Pope Francis. By labeling him as the "final" or "apocalyptic" Pope, they strip away his legitimacy in their eyes.
This is where the prophecy gets dangerous. It moves from being a historical curiosity to a tool for modern division. If you believe the last pope St Malachy mentioned is a sign of the end times, you might be less inclined to engage with the actual policies or teachings of the Church and more focused on waiting for the sky to fall.
Actionable Insights for Evaluating the Prophecy
If you're trying to figure out if there's any weight to this, here is how you should actually look at the evidence.
Check the Source Timing Always remember that the prophecy "appeared" 450 years after Malachy died. In the world of historical documents, that’s a massive red flag. If a document claiming to be from 1140 doesn't show up until 1595, it’s probably a fake.
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Analyze the Vague Language Look at the mottos objectively. Most are "Barnum statements"—the kind used by horoscopes. They are broad enough to apply to almost anyone. "Flower of flowers" or "Religious man" are descriptions that could fit 90% of the men who have ever been Cardinal.
Research the 1590 Conclave If you want to understand the "why" behind the forgery, read up on the papal election of 1590. It was a time of intense political maneuvering between France and Spain. The prophecy was likely a "campaign flyer" disguised as a divine revelation.
Differentiate Between Faith and Folklore The Catholic Church has a very specific process for "approved private revelations" (like Fatima). The Malachy prophecies have never passed this bar. Recognizing that this is folklore, not dogma, helps keep your perspective grounded.
The fascination with the last pope St Malachy isn't going away anytime soon. As long as there is a Pope in Rome, people will keep trying to match his life to a list of Latin phrases from the 1500s. It's part of our nature to look for signs in the stars and on the page. But sometimes, a list of names is just a list of names, and the future is a lot less certain than a 16th-century monk would have you believe.
Stay skeptical. The world has "ended" according to prophecies hundreds of times already. Yet, here we are, still turning the page.
To get a clearer picture of the historical context, you might want to look into the work of Father Rene Thibaut, a Jesuit who did a massive statistical analysis of the prophecy in the 1950s. His conclusion? The accuracy before 1595 is 100%, and after 1595, it's basically zero. That tells you everything you need to know about where this document really came from.