If you’ve been watching football for the last five years, you’ve probably noticed a pattern. It’s usually cold. There’s a lot of red on the field. And somehow, Patrick Mahomes is standing in the middle of a confetti shower at the end. Honestly, looking back at the last 5 AFC Championship games, it feels less like a sports schedule and more like a recurring drama where the plot stays the same but the supporting actors keep changing. We’ve seen everything from Joe Burrow’s cigar-chomping swagger to the Lamar Jackson era hitting a literal wall in Baltimore.
It’s been wild.
People talk about "parity" in the NFL, but the AFC has been a gated community recently. Since 2021, the conference title has run through two cities: Kansas City and Baltimore. Well, mostly Kansas City. To understand where we are in 2026, you have to look at the slugfests that got us here.
2025: Chiefs 32, Bills 29 — The Arrowhead Heartbreak
This one is still fresh. On January 26, 2025, the Buffalo Bills walked into Arrowhead with arguably their best team in decades. Josh Allen was a monster. He went 22-of-34 for 237 yards and two touchdowns, plus he ran for another 39 yards. But it wasn't enough. It's never enough, is it?
The game was a seesaw. One minute James Cook is diving into the end zone—he had two scores that night—and the next, Mahomes is scrambling for a 10-yard touchdown to take the lead back. The real dagger? Xavier Worthy. The rookie hauled in six catches for 85 yards and a touchdown. He basically looked like the next Tyreek Hill, which is exactly what Buffalo didn't want to see.
Buffalo fans will tell you the officiating was... let's say "questionable." There was a jump ball catch by Worthy on 3rd-and-5 that looked like it might have hit the turf. But the call stood. Mahomes finished with 245 yards and a touchdown, moving past Joe Montana for the second-most postseason wins by a QB ever.
2024: Chiefs 17, Ravens 10 — The Defensive Masterclass
Everyone thought the Ravens were going to cruise. Lamar Jackson was the MVP. The game was in Baltimore. The crowd was deafening. But Steve Spagnuolo, the Chiefs' defensive coordinator, turned the Ravens' offense into a confused mess.
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Lamar was under fire all night. George Karlaftis sacked him in the fourth quarter. Justin Reid was hitting people like a heat-seeking missile. On the other side, Mahomes was surgical. He found Travis Kelce for a 19-yard touchdown on the opening drive, and Kelce ended the day with over 100 yards.
"Defense did a good job putting the pressure on QB Lamar Jackson making it hard for him to throw and making him not want to run for some reason." — Reginald Taylor Jr., NFL analyst.
The Ravens turned the ball over in the red zone. Zay Flowers fumbled at the goal line. It was a nightmare for Baltimore fans. This game proved that even when Mahomes isn't scoring 40 points, the Chiefs find a way to suffocate you.
2023: Chiefs 23, Bengals 20 — The "Burrowhead" Revenge
Remember "Burrowhead"? The Bengals players were talking trash, saying they owned Arrowhead Stadium after winning there the year before. Big mistake.
Joe Burrow was sacked five times. Chris Jones, who had strangely never had a postseason sack before this game, finally got home. He took Burrow down on a crucial third down late in the game. Mahomes was playing on one leg—literally. He had a high ankle sprain from the previous week and was hobbling all over the field.
The game ended on a Harrison Butker 45-yard field goal. But the only reason they got in range was because Joseph Ossai hit Mahomes out of bounds, drawing a 15-yard penalty. It was a heartbreaking way for the Bengals to lose, but it cemented the Chiefs as the new dynasty. Mahomes threw for 326 yards and two scores despite being barely able to walk.
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2022: Bengals 27, Chiefs 24 (OT) — The Great Collapse
This is the one that still haunts Kansas City. They were up 21-3. It looked like a blowout. Then, everything broke.
Joe Burrow and the Bengals mounted an 18-point comeback, tying the record for the largest in AFC Championship history. Mahomes looked human for the first time. He threw an interception to Vonn Bell in overtime, and Evan McPherson—who they call "Money Mac"—drilled the game-winner.
- Bengals defense: Allowed only 3 points in the second half.
- Mahomes: Finished with 275 yards but 2 costly interceptions.
- The result: Cincinnati's first Super Bowl trip since the 1980s.
It was a shock to the system. You've got to give credit to Zac Taylor for the halftime adjustments. They stopped the deep ball and forced Mahomes to check it down, and the Chiefs just couldn't handle the patience required.
2021: Chiefs 38, Bills 24 — The "Welcome to the Big Leagues" Game
This was the first time Josh Allen and the Bills really felt the weight of the Chiefs' dominance. Buffalo actually started strong, jumping out to a 9-0 lead after a Mecole Hardman muffed punt.
Then Mahomes woke up.
Three touchdowns in the second quarter. Hardman made up for his mistake with a score, Darrel Williams ran one in, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire added another. By the time the third quarter rolled around, Travis Kelce was just playing catch. He caught two touchdowns that night. The Bills’ defense had no answer for the speed. It was a clear message: you might be good, but you aren't this good yet.
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What we learned from the last 5 AFC Championship games
If you look at the numbers, the trend is pretty clear. In the last 5 AFC Championship games, the home team has won four out of five times. The only outlier was that Bengals upset in 2022.
Experience matters more than anything. While teams like the Ravens and Bills have the talent, the Chiefs have the "clutch gene." Mahomes has led six fourth-quarter comebacks in the postseason now. That’s insane. He’s only 29 years old in 2025/2026.
For fans of other AFC teams, the outlook is kinda grim unless someone figures out how to stop Chris Jones from wrecking the interior or how to keep Kelce from finding the soft spot in the zone.
Actionable Insights for Next Season:
- Bet the Underdog Spread: In three of the last five games, the underdog covered the spread, even if they didn't win.
- Home Field is King: Aim for the #1 seed. The atmosphere at Arrowhead or M&T Bank Stadium is worth at least 3-4 points on the scoreboard.
- Watch the Injury Reports: Mahomes winning on a sprained ankle in 2023 was legendary, but usually, the healthier offensive line wins these cold-weather brawls.
The AFC is currently a kingdom with one king. Whether you love them or hate them, the Chiefs have turned the conference championship into their personal invitational. Until someone can consistently pressure Mahomes without blitzing—like the Bengals did in '22—the trophy is staying in Missouri.