The white smoke rises. Thousands of people packed into St. Peter's Square lose their minds. It's a scene that feels like it belongs in the middle ages, yet it happens in the era of TikTok and AI. When we talk about the history of new pope elections, we’re actually looking at one of the oldest, weirdest, and most successful succession plans in human history. It's called a conclave. Literally, "with a key." They lock a bunch of old men in a room, and they don't let them out until they pick a leader.
Honestly, it’s a miracle it works at all.
You’ve probably seen the movies where it’s all shadowy conspiracies and Dan Brown-style puzzles. The reality is actually much more bureaucratic, but in a way that’s somehow even more fascinating. The history of how the Catholic Church picks its CEO has shifted from literal street fights to the hyper-controlled, secretive ritual we see today.
From Crowds to Cardinals: The Messy Origins
In the very beginning, there wasn't a formal system. If you look at the earliest history of new pope transitions, the local people of Rome basically just shouted for who they wanted. It was loud. It was messy. Sometimes it was violent. Imagine a modern political rally, but with the power to appoint a spiritual leader for eternity.
By the year 1059, Pope Nicholas II had seen enough. He realized that if the Church didn't control its own leadership, the local Roman nobility or the Holy Roman Emperors would just treat the Papacy like a political puppet. He issued a decree that changed everything: only Cardinal Bishops could elect the Pope. This was the seed of the modern College of Cardinals. It took the power away from the "mobs" and put it into the hands of a dedicated elite.
But even then, things didn't go smoothly.
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Take the election of 1268. The cardinals were stuck. They sat in Viterbo for nearly three years, unable to agree on a name. The locals got so fed up that they literally tore the roof off the building to "let the Holy Spirit in" (and, more practically, to let the rain in so the cardinals would hurry up). They even started rationing their food to bread and water. It worked. Within days, Gregory X was elected. He was so scarred by the experience that he formally established the "conclave" rules to ensure it never happened again.
The Evolution of the Modern Conclave
The history of new pope elections since the 13th century has been a slow tightening of security. In the past, cardinals would arrive with massive entourages, servants, and even personal chefs. Today? They live in the Domus Sanctae Marthae, a relatively modest guesthouse inside the Vatican. They aren't allowed phones. No newspapers. No X (formerly Twitter). No signal from the outside world.
Modern popes like John Paul II and Benedict XVI tweaked the rules slightly. John Paul II built the guesthouse because, frankly, sleeping on cots in the Sistine Chapel was getting a bit much for 80-year-old men. But the core vibe remains the same: total isolation.
The Ballot and the Burn
The voting process is incredibly specific. Each cardinal writes a name on a rectangular piece of paper, disguising their handwriting. They walk up to the altar under Michelangelo’s Last Judgment, hold the ballot up, and swear an oath.
- They fold the ballot twice.
- It’s placed on a plate, then dropped into a chalice.
- Three "scrutineers" count them.
- The ballots are pierced with a needle and thread to keep them organized.
Then comes the part everyone watches for: the smoke. If no one gets a two-thirds majority, they mix the ballots with chemicals to make black smoke. If someone is elected, they use different chemicals—historically it was just wet straw, but now it's a sophisticated cartridge system—to make it white.
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The Politics of "Papabile"
In the history of new pope discussions, you’ll often hear the term "Papabile." These are the guys everyone thinks are going to win. But there’s an old Roman saying: "He who enters the conclave a Pope, leaves it a Cardinal."
Basically, being the frontrunner is often a curse.
When Jorge Mario Bergoglio was elected as Pope Francis in 2013, he wasn't the absolute favorite in the media's eyes, even though he had been a runner-up in 2005. The shift from Benedict XVI (a scholarly, conservative theologian) to Francis (a Jesuit focused on the poor and the "peripheries") showed how the College of Cardinals often looks for a "course correction." They see what the previous guy did and decide what the Church needs next.
Why the 2013 Election Changed Everything
The resignation of Benedict XVI was a massive tectonic shift in the history of new pope successions. For 600 years, popes died in office. That was the deal. When Benedict stepped down, it created a weird "two popes" dynamic that the Church hadn't dealt with in the modern age. It set a precedent. Now, we don't just look at who is next; we wonder if the current Pope will eventually retire too.
This has changed the "pre-conclave" phase. Cardinals now spend more time in "general congregations"—basically pre-game meetings—discussing the state of the world. They talk about the crisis in the Amazon, the financial scandals in the Vatican Bank, and the rise of secularism in Europe. These meetings are where the real kingmaking happens.
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What to Watch for in the Next Conclave
Whenever the next transition happens, the history of new pope elections will face its biggest challenge yet: the digital age. The Vatican is obsessed with preventing leaks. They sweep the Sistine Chapel for bugs. They use jammers. But as technology gets smaller and more invasive, the "secret" of the conclave becomes harder to keep.
We also have to look at the "Francis Effect" on the College. Francis has spent his decade-plus in power appointing cardinals from places like Tonga, Cape Verde, and Myanmar, rather than just the traditional powerhouses of Italy and the United States. This "internationalization" makes the next election totally unpredictable. You can’t just assume an Italian or a European will take the seat.
Actionable Insights for Following Vatican History
If you want to understand this process like an insider, you need to look past the headlines.
- Follow the "Red Hats": Keep an eye on who the current Pope elevates to Cardinal. Those are the electors. If he picks more from the Global South, the next Pope is likely to reflect those priorities.
- Study the "Universi Dominici Gregis": This is the actual document (the Apostolic Constitution) that governs how a Pope is elected. It’s the rulebook. If you know the rules, you can spot when things are getting "interesting."
- Distinguish between "Liberal" and "Conservative": These secular political labels rarely fit the Vatican perfectly. A cardinal might be very "liberal" on climate change but incredibly "conservative" on church doctrine.
- Look for the "Grand Elector": There is often a senior cardinal who acts as a consensus builder. They aren't trying to win; they are trying to find the person who can get 77+ votes.
The history of new pope elections isn't just a religious event. It’s a masterclass in institutional survival. By blending total secrecy with a rigid, unchanging process, the Vatican manages to create a sense of continuity that almost no other organization on Earth can claim. It's a weird, beautiful, slightly frustrating system that has outlasted empires. And the next time that white smoke drifts over the square, the world will stop and watch, just like they have for a thousand years.