You've probably seen the maps by now. They show a massive chunk of Oregon—basically everything east of the Cascades—shaded in a different color, looking like it’s trying to swallow the Idaho panhandle. It's not a joke or a fever dream from a border-obsessed cartographer. It’s a very real, very persistent political push. People call it the Greater Idaho movement Oregon secession project, and honestly, it’s gained more ground than most political pundits ever thought possible.
Since 2020, voters in 13 Oregon counties have already said "yes" to ballot measures related to exploring this move. We aren't just talking about a few guys in camo hats complaining at a diner. We’re talking about official, county-level votes in places like Baker, Grant, Lake, and Union. Most recently, in May 2024, Crook County joined the fray. The margin wasn't even that close.
Why is this actually happening?
Rural Oregonians feel like they’re living in a different universe than the folks in Portland or Salem. It’s that simple. And that complicated.
The cultural divide in Oregon is a chasm. You have a state legislature dominated by the I-5 corridor that passes laws on carbon emissions, gun control, and drug decriminalization—things that make sense in a dense urban environment but feel like an attack on the way of life in the high desert or the timber country. Mike McCarter, the president of Citizens for Greater Idaho, has been the face of this for years. He’s not arguing for a new state; he’s arguing for a border shift. He basically says that if the culture of Eastern Oregon matches Idaho better than Western Oregon, why shouldn't the line move?
Idaho’s government is fundamentally different. It’s conservative. It’s pro-resource extraction. It’s traditional. For a rancher in Wallowa County, the laws being penned in Boise feel a lot more like "home" than the ones coming out of Salem.
But it’s not just about "vibes." It’s about money. Eastern Oregon is largely subsidized by the tax revenue from the Portland metro area. Proponents of the Greater Idaho movement Oregon secession argue that Idaho would actually benefit because they'd gain a tax base that is more aligned with their regulatory style, while Oregon would shed a region that it constantly has to bail out financially. Critics, however, say that Idaho would be inheriting a massive infrastructure liability they aren't prepared to pay for.
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The Massive Legal Wall
Moving a state border isn't like moving a fence between neighbors. It’s a constitutional marathon.
First, you need the Oregon Legislature to agree to let the counties go. Spoiler: they haven't. While some Republican lawmakers in Salem have been sympathetic, the Democratic majority generally views this as a non-starter. They aren't exactly keen on losing a huge portion of the state's landmass, even if it is sparsely populated.
Second, the Idaho Legislature has to say they want them. This part is actually moving. In 2023, the Idaho House of Representatives passed a memorial (House Joint Memorial 1) to discuss the border shift with Oregon. It was a huge symbolic win. Idaho Governor Brad Little has even joked that he'd love to have those "hardworking Oregonians" join his state. But even in Idaho, there are concerns. Would adding all these new citizens dilute the power of current Idahoans? Would the cost of maintaining Oregon's roads be too much?
Finally, the US Congress has to bless the deal. Under Article IV, Section 3 of the Constitution, no new state can be formed—or borders changed—without the consent of the legislatures of the states concerned and Congress. In a hyper-polarized D.C., getting a bipartisan stamp of approval on a move that would effectively solidify Idaho as a GOP stronghold is... let's just say "unlikely."
The "Cost" of Moving
Let's get into the nitty-gritty of the Greater Idaho movement Oregon secession economics.
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A study by the Claremont Institute—which, to be fair, leans conservative—suggested that Idaho would see a net fiscal benefit of roughly $170 million annually. They argue that the regulatory environment in Idaho would unlock economic potential in Eastern Oregon that is currently stifled by Salem’s rules.
On the flip side, the Oregon Values and Beliefs Center found that many Oregonians are worried about losing access to things like legal cannabis or higher minimum wages if they switched states. Idaho has some of the strictest marijuana laws in the country. If you live in Ontario, Oregon, right on the border, your entire economy currently thrives on Idahoans crossing the bridge to buy weed. If Ontario becomes Idaho, that industry vanishes overnight.
Then there's the minimum wage gap. Oregon’s minimum wage is significantly higher than Idaho’s, which still sits at the federal $7.25. For a service worker in Pendleton, becoming an Idahoan might mean a massive pay cut. These aren't theoretical problems; they are "how do I pay my rent" problems.
Who are the key players?
- Mike McCarter: The retired ag teacher and veteran who started the movement.
- Matt McCaw: The spokesperson who does most of the heavy lifting with the media.
- Senator Lynn Findley (R-Vale): A frequent voice in the Oregon legislature who, while cautious, acknowledges his constituents' frustrations.
- Governor Tina Kotek: She has mostly dismissed the movement, focusing instead on "One Oregon" initiatives, though her critics say that's just lip service.
Is this just a "Rural vs. Urban" thing?
Mostly, yeah. But it’s also a "representation" thing.
In the 2020 election, the divide was stark. Rural counties voted for Trump by massive margins; the Willamette Valley went for Biden. When one side feels they have zero voice in how their schools are run or how their land is managed, they start looking for the exit. It happened with the "State of Jefferson" movement in Northern California and Southern Oregon decades ago. The difference is that the Greater Idaho movement Oregon secession isn't trying to create a 51st state. They just want to change zip codes, essentially.
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It's a "peaceful divorce," as McCaw often puts it. Why fight over every bill in Salem when you can just move the line and everyone lives under the government they actually like?
What happens next?
The movement is currently targeting more counties for ballot measures. They want to show a "mandate" that is impossible for Salem to ignore.
The next big hurdle is getting a formal joint committee between the two states to actually sit down and talk about the logistics. We’re talking about water rights, prison populations, state assets, and pension liabilities. It would be the most complex real estate transaction in American history.
If you’re watching this from the outside, don't expect the map to change tomorrow. Or next year. This is a generational play. It’s about keeping the conversation alive until the political pressure becomes so great that the "unthinkable" becomes a "negotiable."
Actionable Steps for Staying Informed
If you want to track where the Greater Idaho movement Oregon secession goes from here, you shouldn't just rely on national headlines that treat it like a curiosity.
- Follow the County Commissions: The real work is happening at the local level. Watch the meeting minutes for Wallowa, Union, and Umatilla counties. They are the ones who actually have to interface with the state.
- Monitor Idaho Legislative Sessions: Look for bills similar to HJM 1. If the Idaho Senate starts taking these memorials as seriously as the House, the momentum shifts significantly.
- Check the Oregon Secretary of State's Initiative Filings: New petitions are filed every cycle. If you see a surge in signatures in more "purple" counties like Deschutes (Bend), that would be a massive signal that the movement is expanding beyond its rural base.
- Read the Legislative Revenue Office (LRO) Reports: When Oregon's tax experts start modeling the loss of Eastern Oregon's land and resources, you'll know the state is actually worried about the fiscal impact.
The movement is a symptom of a much deeper divide in American politics. Whether the border ever moves or not, the fact that thousands of people are voting to leave their state tells you that the current "One Oregon" model is under immense localized stress. Watch the 2026 election cycles closely; the rhetoric from gubernatorial candidates on both sides of the border will likely be forced to address this head-on.