Inequality is basically the default state of human civilization. It's a tough pill to swallow. Since we transitioned from hunter-gatherers to farmers, we’ve spent thousands of years building ladders where a few people sit at the top while everyone else struggles at the bottom. Walter Scheidel, a Stanford historian, wrote a book that makes a pretty haunting argument about this. It’s called The Great Leveler, and honestly, it’s one of the most sobering reads you’ll ever find if you care about economics or social justice.
His thesis is simple but brutal.
He argues that throughout all of recorded history, there are only four things that have ever truly narrowed the gap between the rich and the poor. He calls them the "Four Horsemen" of leveling. They aren’t peaceful policy changes or nice speeches in parliament. They are mass-mobilization warfare, transformative revolution, state collapse, and lethal pandemics.
It's a grim outlook.
Why peaceful reform usually fails to move the needle
Most people want to believe that we can just vote our way into a fairer society. We look at things like tax hikes or education spending and think, "Yeah, that’ll fix the wealth gap." Scheidel’s research into the long-term history of the world suggests otherwise. He looks at everything from Ancient Rome and the Han Dynasty to the Gilded Age. In almost every case, wealth concentrates naturally. It’s like gravity. People with power use that power to get more resources, and they protect those resources with laws they help write.
Peaceful times are actually when inequality grows the most.
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Think about the "Pax Romana" or the Victorian Era. When things are stable, the rich get richer because they have the time and security to accumulate assets. Land, capital, and investments all compound. Without some kind of massive external shock, the wealth just keeps piling up at the top until it becomes unsustainable. This isn't just a modern "capitalism" problem; it’s a "civilization" problem that has existed for five thousand years.
The first horseman: Mass-mobilization warfare
Total war is the most effective leveler Scheidel identifies. We aren't talking about small border skirmishes or professional armies fighting far away. We are talking about the kind of wars where the entire population is dragged into the meat grinder. World War I and World War II are the primary examples here.
During the World Wars, governments had to do things they’d never dream of doing in peacetime. They hiked income taxes to 90% in some places. They seized industries. They inflated away the debts of the poor while the assets of the rich—like factories and mansions—were literally blown up.
In Japan, for instance, the top 1% saw their share of national income plummet after 1945. It wasn't because they suddenly decided to be generous. It was because the entire economic structure of the country was dismantled by total defeat and American occupation. When everyone is fighting for survival, the distance between the CEO and the factory worker shrinks because the state demands everything from everyone.
Revolution and the price of total equality
Then you have transformative revolutions. Scheidel points to the Soviet Union and Maoist China. These were the most "successful" leveling events in history in terms of raw numbers. They achieved almost perfect equality.
But at what cost?
The leveling happened through mass executions, land seizures, and the total destruction of the merchant class. In the mid-20th century, the "Great Leap Forward" and the Bolshevik Revolution wiped out the wealth of the elite, but they also caused tens of millions of deaths. It's a reminder that when we talk about "leveling the playing field," history shows that the process is often bloody and chaotic. It’s rarely a gentle redistribution; it’s usually a violent tearing down of the existing order.
Plagues and the power of labor
Pandemics are the one horseman that doesn't require humans to kill each other, though the result is just as morbid. The Black Death in the 14th century is the classic example cited in The Great Leveler.
When a third of Europe died, the labor market changed overnight.
Suddenly, there weren't enough peasants to work the land. Landlords, who used to treat their serfs like dirt, were suddenly desperate. They had to compete for workers. This led to a massive spike in real wages. If you survived the plague, your life likely got better economically. You could demand more pay or move to a different lord who offered a better deal. The wealth held by the elite (land) became less valuable because there was no one to till it, while the value of human labor skyrocketed.
Scheidel notes that COVID-19 didn't really fit this mold. Why? Because it wasn't lethal enough to the working-age population to create a labor shortage that could fundamentally shift the power balance. Instead, the modern financial system allowed the wealthy to actually increase their net worth during the pandemic, proving that our current "stability" is remarkably good at resisting the leveling effects of disease.
The collapse of the state
This is the "scorched earth" version of equality. When a government completely fails—think the fall of the Western Roman Empire or the collapse of the Mayan civilization—everyone becomes equal because everyone becomes poor.
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Wealth only exists if there is a state to protect property rights.
If there are no police and no courts, your bank account or your land deed doesn't mean anything. In the aftermath of a state collapse, the elite lose everything. The poor lose a lot too, but since they started with nothing, the "gap" vanishes. It’s a leveling of misery. We see shades of this in modern failed states, where the currency becomes worthless and the social hierarchy dissolves into localized power struggles.
Can we level without the horsemen?
This is the million-dollar question that The Great Leveler poses. Scheidel is pretty pessimistic. He acknowledges that the "Great Compression" of the mid-20th century—where the middle class boomed and inequality fell—was an anomaly caused by the unique horror of the World Wars.
Since the 1980s, we’ve been heading right back to "normal" historical levels of extreme inequality.
Some people argue that education is the answer. Others point to the "U-shaped" curve of economic development. But Scheidel's data suggests that education usually benefits those who already have a head start. Even the most progressive tax systems in Europe have struggled to keep wealth from concentrating over the last thirty years.
Honestly, it's a bit of a grim outlook for anyone hoping for a peaceful "Nordic Model" to take over the world. The book suggests that without a massive, systemic shock, the rich will likely continue to pull away from everyone else.
Why this matters for your 2026 investment strategy
If you’re looking at this from a business or investment perspective, the takeaways are actually pretty practical. Stability is the friend of capital. As long as we avoid one of the "Four Horsemen," the historical trend suggests that assets—stocks, real estate, and intellectual property—will continue to outperform labor.
- Diversification is survival: If a "leveling event" does occur, it usually targets specific types of wealth (like physical land or specific currencies).
- Labor shortages are a signal: Keep a close eye on demographic shifts. While we aren't seeing a Black Death-level event, the aging population in the West and China is creating a natural labor scarcity. This might be the only "peaceful" leveler we have left.
- Watch the "shocks": Modern leveling doesn't look like a cavalry charge. It looks like hyperinflation, radical tax shifts, or AI-driven displacement.
Actionable steps for the "Unequal" Era
If you want to navigate a world that looks more like the historical "norm" of high inequality, you have to play the game differently. You can't just rely on the idea that the government will eventually "fix" the wealth gap.
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- Prioritize Asset Ownership: History shows that during stable times, those who own the "means of production" (stocks, businesses, real estate) win. If you only trade your time for money, you are on the wrong side of the historical wealth curve.
- Focus on "Hard" Skills: In the event of social or economic upheaval, transferable, technical skills are the only things that can't be confiscated or inflated away.
- Understand the Macro: Read Scheidel’s work to stop viewing current events in a vacuum. When you see massive social unrest or global health crises, don't just look at the news—look at the historical precedent for how these events shift wealth.
- Hedge Against Instability: If the "Four Horsemen" teach us anything, it's that the current order isn't guaranteed. Having a portion of your net worth in decentralized or international assets isn't paranoia; it's historical literacy.
Wealth inequality isn't a glitch in the system; for five thousand years, it has been the system. The Great Leveler reminds us that while we all want a fairer world, the path to getting there has almost always been paved with catastrophe. Understanding that reality is the first step toward actually protecting yourself and your family in an increasingly polarized economic landscape.