Everything changed on a random Thursday in August 2021. If you collect cards, you remember where you were. Or maybe you just remember the panic on Twitter.
The news hit like a sledgehammer: Fanatics, a company mostly known for selling jerseys and hats, had pulled off a coup. They didn't just enter the market. They nuked it. By securing exclusive licensing deals with the MLB, MLBPA, NBA, NBPA, and the NFLPA, Fanatics effectively evicted Topps and Panini from the house they spent decades building. It was ruthless. It was brilliant. Honestly, it was a little terrifying for anyone who cares about the "hobby."
Topps had been making baseball cards since 1952. Suddenly, they were looking at an expiration date. While the dust has settled slightly since Fanatics eventually just bought Topps to solve their "no brand name" problem, the long-term implications of the Fanatics sports cards deal are still unfolding in ways most collectors aren't ready for.
The hostile takeover that actually worked
Michael Rubin doesn't play small. The Fanatics CEO saw a fragmented industry and decided to verticalize the whole thing. Before this deal, the ecosystem was a mess of different players. You had the leagues, the players' unions, the card manufacturers, and the distributors.
Fanatics looked at that and said, "Why give away the margin?"
By going directly to the unions first—specifically the MLBPA—they bypassed the manufacturers entirely. It was a classic end-around. Topps didn't even get a chance to bid. They were reportedly blindsided. Imagine being a company worth hundreds of millions of dollars and finding out your entire business model is illegal in three years because of a leaked press release. That’s cold.
But here is the thing: the leagues weren't just looking for more money. They wanted equity. In the old world, Topps paid a licensing fee. In the Fanatics sports cards deal, the leagues and unions are actually stakeholders. They own a piece of Fanatics Trading Cards. When Fanatics wins, the MLB wins. When a 1-of-1 Superfractor pulls a massive price at auction, the incentives are now aligned in a way they never were before.
Is the "Topps" we know really gone?
Short answer: No, but it's different.
When Fanatics realized that starting a card company from scratch is hard—printing, distribution, and photography are nightmares—they did the logical thing. They bought Topps for roughly $500 million in early 2022. This saved the brand name. It saved the "Series 1" and "Chrome" flagship lines that we’ve all been buying since we were kids.
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But don't be fooled. The "Topps" of today is a division of Fanatics Collectibles.
The culture has shifted. We're seeing more "direct-to-consumer" pushes. If you’ve noticed it’s harder to find boxes at your local card shop (LCS) but easier to find them on the Fanatics website, that’s by design. They want the data. They want to know who you are, what you buy, and which player’s jersey you might want to buy after you pull their rookie card.
The Panini problem and the NFL/NBA drama
While baseball is "safe" under the Fanatics/Topps umbrella, the football and basketball worlds are currently a chaotic mess of lawsuits.
Panini America still holds the licenses for the NFL and NBA through 2025 and 2026 respectively. However, Fanatics has been trying to terminate those deals early. They’ve been poaching employees. They’ve been suing each other over antitrust violations and "tortious interference."
It’s messy.
Last year, the NFLPA tried to terminate its deal with Panini three years early to jump to Fanatics immediately. Panini fought back. Now, we are in this weird limbo where Panini is still putting out Prizm and Donruss, but everyone knows they are a "dead man walking."
What does this mean for you? Quality control.
Collectors are already complaining about declining card quality and "sticker autos" from Panini. When a company knows it’s losing its license, the incentive to innovate vanishes. Fanatics is lurking in the wings, waiting to take over the NFL and NBA markets, likely using the Topps Chrome brand to revitalize football and basketball cards. Yeah, imagine Topps Chrome Football coming back. People will lose their minds.
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Why collectors are actually worried
Not everything is sunshine and rainbows. There is a dark side to a monopoly.
When one company owns the rights to every major sport, who regulates the price? In the past, competition between Upper Deck, Topps, and Panini kept things—somewhat—honest. If Topps got too expensive, you bought Fleer. If Fleer sucked, you bought SkyBox.
Now? If you want an officially licensed MLB card, you go to Fanatics. Period.
The "Gamification" of the hobby
Fanatics Live is their new breaking platform. They want to own the "break" (where people pay for a share of a box being opened live). This feels a bit like gambling integration. By controlling the manufacturing, the distribution, and the secondary market platform, Fanatics is creating a closed loop.
Some people love the convenience. Others think it’s killing the soul of the hobby.
What most people get wrong about the deal
A lot of folks think this was just about money. It wasn't. It was about data.
Fanatics has a database of over 90 million sports fans. They know if you’re a Dodgers fan who lives in Austin, Texas. They know you bought a Mookie Betts jersey last year. Now, they can email you directly when a new Mookie Betts "Drop" happens.
This isn't just a sports cards deal; it’s a tech play.
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They are turning cards into "digital-physical hybrids." We’re seeing more integration with NFTs (though that’s cooled off) and digital clearinghouses. They want your cards to stay in their ecosystem. They want to provide the insurance, the grading, the vaulting, and the marketplace.
Real talk: The impact on the secondary market
If you’re holding old Topps or Panini cards, you might be wondering if they’ll lose value.
Actually, the opposite is often true. "Legacy" cards usually gain a certain prestige. The last year of Panini Prizm Basketball will likely be a landmark set, regardless of how the transition goes.
However, the "junk wax 2.0" era is a real threat. Fanatics needs to recoup the billions they spent on these licenses. To do that, they need to sell a lot of cards. If they overprint to satisfy shareholders, we could see a collapse in value for "base" cards.
Look at the print runs for 2023 and 2024 Topps. They are high. Very high.
Actionable insights for the modern collector
The Fanatics era is here. You can either complain about it at the card show or adapt. Here is how you handle the new landscape:
- Focus on "Low Pop" and Numbered Cards: Since print runs are increasing, "base" rookie cards are becoming nearly worthless for long-term investing. Look for cards numbered to /99 or less.
- Watch the Licensing Shifts: Keep a close eye on the Panini vs. Fanatics lawsuits. The moment Fanatics takes over the NBA license, the first "Topps Chrome Basketball" set in nearly 20 years will be the biggest event in the history of the hobby. Save your cash for that.
- Use the Ecosystem, Don't Be Used By It: Fanatics will offer "exclusive" drops. These are often great for a quick flip, but don't get caught in the FOMO (fear of missing out). Their goal is to keep you clicking "buy" on their app.
- Diversify into "Vintage": Fanatics can't print more 1952 Topps Mickeys. If the corporate nature of the new deal turns you off, the vintage market remains the safest harbor.
- Monitor the "Breaker" Culture: Fanatics is leaning hard into breaking. If you're buying into breaks, realize that the "house" (Fanatics) now owns the platform and the product. The odds are never in your favor.
The Fanatics sports cards deal was a seismic shift that proved sports cards are no longer just a hobby for kids in candy stores. It's a multi-billion dollar asset class. The cards are prettier, the technology is better, but the stakes are much, much higher. Keep your eyes on the print runs and your wallet close. The next few years will determine if this was a golden age or just a very expensive corporate takeover.