Honestly, if you told me back in August that we’d be heading into the Divisional Round without Patrick Mahomes or the Philadelphia Eagles, I probably would’ve laughed you out of the room. But here we are. It’s mid-January 2026, and the current nfl playoff picture looks absolutely nothing like what the "experts" predicted. The Wild Card round didn't just give us games; it gave us a total demolition of the old guard.
Chaos. That’s the only way to describe it.
We just watched four games decided by four points or fewer—a literal record for any playoff round in history. We saw the Houston Texans walk into Pittsburgh and dominate so thoroughly that the Steelers looked like they were stuck in preseason mode. And now, the bracket is set for a weekend that feels like a changing of the guard in both conferences.
The AFC Gauntlet: Can Anyone Stop the Mile High Momentum?
Denver has been the story of the year. Coach Sean Payton has the Broncos clicking like it's 2013 again, and they’ve spent the last week resting up at home. But their reward for the No. 1 seed? A date with Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills.
The Bills are coming off a gutsy 27-24 win over Jacksonville. It was their first road playoff win in 33 years. Think about that for a second. Most of the guys on that roster weren't even born the last time Buffalo pulled that off. Josh Allen is playing like a man possessed, and while the Broncos' defense has been a brick wall, Allen is the kind of wrecking ball that doesn't care about "schemes."
Then you’ve got the Patriots. They basically suffocated the Chargers in a 16-3 snooze-fest (unless you love defense, then it was a masterpiece). They’re hosting the Texans on Sunday. Houston is the real wild card here—literally. They just got their first road playoff win in franchise history. C.J. Stroud is playing with a level of poise that makes you forget he’s still so young. New England's defense is elite, but Houston’s momentum is scary.
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AFC Divisional Matchups
- No. 6 Buffalo Bills at No. 1 Denver Broncos: Saturday, Jan 17, 4:30 p.m. ET (CBS)
- No. 5 Houston Texans at No. 2 New England Patriots: Sunday, Jan 18, 3:00 p.m. ET (ESPN/ABC)
The NFC Side: West Coast Dominance and a Chicago Revival
If you like rivalries, Saturday night is your Super Bowl. The 49ers and the Seahawks are meeting for the third time this season. They split the regular-season series, and now everything is on the line at Lumen Field. Seattle has been the most consistent team in football this year, but San Francisco just went into Philly and knocked off the Eagles in a game that felt like a heavyweight fight.
The Niners are playing on short rest—only five days—which is a massive hurdle. But with Fred Warner potentially returning to the lineup, they aren't going to make it easy for Sam Darnold and the Seahawks. Darnold has been a revelation, but he's dealing with a tweaked oblique. Keep an eye on that.
Then there’s Chicago.
Soldier Field is hosting its first Divisional Round game in 15 years. Let that sink in. Caleb Williams led a historic fourth-quarter comeback against the Packers last week, and the city is absolutely electric. They're facing the Rams, who barely survived the Panthers thanks to a vintage Matthew Stafford game-winning drive. This matchup is basically "The Future vs. The Hall of Famer."
NFC Divisional Matchups
- No. 6 San Francisco 49ers at No. 1 Seattle Seahawks: Saturday, Jan 17, 8:00 p.m. ET (FOX)
- No. 5 Los Angeles Rams at No. 2 Chicago Bears: Sunday, Jan 18, 6:30 p.m. ET (NBC)
Why the Current NFL Playoff Picture is Breaking Every Narrative
Usually, the playoffs are about the blue-chip franchises. The Chiefs, the Cowboys, the Eagles. None of them are here. The Chiefs missed the dance for the first time in the Mahomes era, which basically opened the floodgates.
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There is no "clear" favorite.
The Seahawks have the best defense, sure. The Broncos have home field. But the Bills have the best individual playmaker in Allen, and the Texans have the "team of destiny" vibe. When you look at the current nfl playoff picture, the gap between the No. 1 seed and the No. 6 seed feels smaller than it has in a decade.
It’s also a massive year for the underdogs. We saw the No. 6 seed win in both conferences last weekend. We saw a No. 5 seed win. Home-field advantage didn't mean squat for Jacksonville or Philadelphia. If you're betting on the favorites this weekend, you're braver than I am.
What to Watch For This Weekend
The rest vs. rust debate is going to be huge for Denver and Seattle. They haven't played a meaningful snap in nearly two weeks. Meanwhile, the Bills and 49ers are coming in hot, battle-tested from games that went down to the wire.
In the AFC, it’s all about the trenches. Can Buffalo’s offensive line keep the Broncos' pass rush off Allen? In the NFC, it’s about the quarterbacks. If Darnold is limited by that oblique injury, Seattle’s high-flying offense might have to ground it out against a 49ers defense that specializes in making lives miserable.
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Your Playoff Cheat Sheet
Don't get caught not knowing where to watch. Here's the roadmap for the next 48 hours of football madness:
Saturday, January 17
The action starts in the thin air of Denver. CBS has the Bills and Broncos at 4:30 p.m. ET. Once that finishes, flip over to FOX for the 8:00 p.m. ET kickoff in Seattle. Expect the 12th Man to be deafening for that 49ers game.
Sunday, January 18
Sunday starts with the Texans trying to continue their Cinderella run in Foxborough. That’s a 3:00 p.m. ET start on ESPN and ABC. Finally, the weekend wraps up at Soldier Field. NBC will carry the Rams and Bears at 6:30 p.m. ET.
Actionable Next Steps for Fans
If you're following the current nfl playoff picture, stay ahead of the curve by tracking these three things before kickoff:
- Monitor the Oblique: Watch the Saturday morning injury reports for Sam Darnold. If he’s a "go" but clearly limited, the Seahawks’ under-center play-action game becomes much less dangerous.
- Weather Check: Denver and Chicago are the venues to watch. A sudden snow squall at Soldier Field completely changes the math for Matthew Stafford and the Rams' dome-friendly offense.
- The Fred Warner Watch: If the All-Pro linebacker is cleared for the 49ers, it significantly dampens Seattle’s ability to use Jaxon Smith-Njigba over the middle.
The road to Super Bowl LX in Santa Clara is narrowing. By Monday morning, we'll be down to the final four. Grab your snacks, set your DVR, and enjoy the ride.