You've probably heard it a thousand times at weddings or in movies: "Half of all marriages end in divorce." It is one of those "facts" that has been repeated so often it’s basically become gospel. But honestly? It’s not actually true anymore. Not even close.
If you’re looking at the data for 2026, the picture of American marriage is weirder and more nuanced than a simple 50/50 coin flip. We are living through a massive shift in how people view "til death do us part."
The actual numbers: What is the current divorce rate in the US?
Basically, the divorce rate has been sliding downward for years. According to the most recent data from the CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics and the U.S. Census Bureau, the "crude" divorce rate—which is just the number of divorces per 1,000 people—sits at about 2.4.
To put that in perspective, back in the year 2000, that number was 4.0. That is a huge drop.
When researchers look at the "refined" divorce rate (the number of divorces per 1,000 married women), they see a similar story. In 2024 and 2025, that rate hovered around 14.2 to 14.5. We haven’t seen numbers this low since the early 1970s.
So, why does everyone still say 50%?
It’s sorta a holdover from the 1980s peak. Back then, divorce was surging. If you look at the lifetime risk for a couple getting married today, most experts, including those from the National Center for Family & Marriage Research (NCFMR), estimate the actual likelihood of a first marriage ending in divorce is closer to 41%.
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Still high? Sure. But it’s not a coin toss.
The Generation Gap: Millennials are "Saving" Marriage
It turns out that younger people are just... better at staying married? Or maybe they’re just pickier.
Millennials and Gen Z are getting married much later than their parents did. The average age for a first marriage is now nearly 30 for men and 29 for women. In the 1950s, people were barely out of high school when they tied the knot.
By waiting until they have finished their education and started careers, these younger couples are entering marriage with more financial stability. And financial stress is, frankly, one of the biggest marriage killers out there.
Divorce by the numbers: First vs. Second Marriages
While first marriages are becoming more stable, the "divorce habit" is real for subsequent tries. The risk changes significantly depending on how many times you've walked down the aisle:
- First Marriages: Roughly 41% end in divorce.
- Second Marriages: About 60% to 67% fail.
- Third Marriages: A staggering 73% end in split-ups.
It seems like once you've gone through the legal process of a divorce once, the "taboo" is gone, and the "exit door" looks a lot easier to find when things get rough.
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The Rise of "Gray Divorce"
While young people are keeping their rings on, older Americans are doing the opposite. This is the one group where the divorce rate is actually exploding.
"Gray divorce" refers to couples over the age of 50 splitting up after decades together. Since 1990, the divorce rate for people over 50 has roughly doubled. For those over 65, it has tripled.
Why? Empty nest syndrome is a big one. Once the kids are gone, a lot of couples look at each other and realize they have nothing in common besides the mortgage. Plus, people are living longer. If you’re 65 and healthy, you might decide you don't want to spend the next 25 years unhappy.
Why is it happening? (The Real Reasons)
It’s rarely just one thing. But according to recent surveys from the American Psychological Association and legal experts, a few "usual suspects" keep popping up:
- Lack of Commitment: This is actually the #1 reason cited in 2025-2026 studies. One partner just checks out.
- Infidelity: Still a massive factor, accounting for about 15-20% of splits.
- Money Woes: It’s not just "not having money," it’s arguing about how to spend it.
- Incompatibility: People grow apart. It’s a cliche because it’s true.
Interestingly, the "COVID surge" everyone predicted never really materialized. While the pandemic put a lot of stress on relationships, it actually led to a dip in divorce filings initially because courts were closed and people were worried about financial survival. Now that we’re years past it, the trend has just returned to its slow, steady decline.
Geography Matters: Where You Live Impacts Your Marriage
Believe it or not, your zip code might give a hint about your marital longevity.
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The South generally has the highest divorce rates in the country. States like Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Nevada consistently top the charts. On the flip side, the Northeast—places like Massachusetts and New Jersey—have some of the lowest rates.
Why the difference? It usually comes down to three things: age of marriage (people marry younger in the South), religious demographics, and education levels.
Actionable Insights: How to Not Become a Statistic
If you’re looking at the current divorce rate in the US and feeling a bit nervous, there are some concrete things the data says can help.
- Wait until you’re 25+: The risk of divorce drops significantly if you wait until your mid-20s to marry.
- Focus on Education: Statistics show that couples with at least one university degree have a much lower divorce rate (closer to 27% for men and 41% for women with bachelor's degrees compared to those without).
- Talk about Money Early: Since financial stress is a top three killer of marriages, getting on the same page about debt and savings before the wedding is basically essential.
- Don't Rush a Second Marriage: Given that second and third marriages have much higher failure rates, taking time to process a previous divorce before jumping back in is vital.
The "50% myth" is officially dead. Marriage in America is becoming rarer, but the people who do choose it are generally more prepared, older, and more likely to stay together than the generations before them. It's a shift from "everyone does it" to "we're doing this because we actually want to," and that makes all the difference in the world.
Next Steps for Couples:
- Review your financial goals with your partner to ensure your long-term visions align.
- Consult a marriage counselor proactively, rather than waiting for a crisis, to build communication tools that the data shows are essential for longevity.
- Research your state's specific laws if you are considering a prenuptial agreement, as these are increasingly common among Millennials and Gen Z to protect assets and clarify expectations.