It’s been a weird year for the border. Honestly, if you’d told someone three years ago that Canadians—the folks who practically keep the lights on in Florida and Vegas—would be staying home in record numbers, they’d have laughed. But the numbers don’t lie. According to recent data from Statistics Canada, Canadian travel to the US has hit a massive slump.
We’re talking about a 28% drop in visits across 2025. That isn’t just a "bad month." It’s 12 consecutive months of decline.
The latest "Frontier Counts" report released on January 12, 2026, shows that overnight visits from Canada to the US fell by over 1.7 million in just the first half of last year. Why? It’s a messy mix of politics, a loonie that feels more like a nickel, and a sudden, sharp interest in seeing what’s actually in our own backyard. Or maybe Japan. Definitely Japan.
The "51st State" problem and the political chill
Basically, sentiment has soured. It’s hard to ignore the headlines. Ever since the new administration in Washington started throwing around the phrase "51st state" in reference to Canada, things have felt... tense. People are frustrated.
An Angus Reid Institute poll from late last year found that 7 out of 10 Canadians feel "uncomfortable" traveling south this winter. That’s a staggering number. It’s not just about the tariffs on our softwood or steel anymore; it’s personal.
John Gradek, an aviation expert at McGill University, says this is a consumer-led movement. People are voting with their wallets. You’ve got professional organizations literally advising members to avoid non-essential US travel because of reports of Canadians being detained or questioned at the border. When you hear about German backpackers being deported for not having every single night of a five-week trip booked, it makes you think twice about that weekend shopping trip to Buffalo.
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Everything is too expensive (thanks, exchange rates)
Let’s be real: the US dollar is a beast.
Even though analysts like those at Morningstar Canada are predicting the Canadian dollar might climb toward $1.31 CAD to $1.00 USD by the end of 2026, the damage from 2025 was done. For most of last year, the exchange rate made every burger and hotel room feel like a luxury.
If you’re looking at your bank account, the math just doesn't work.
- Air travel from Canada to the US is down 11.2%.
- Land crossings have plummeted by nearly 25%.
- Las Vegas specifically saw a one-third drop in flight capacity from Canadian carriers.
When a trip to Vegas costs the same as a week in an all-inclusive resort in the Dominican Republic or Mexico, Canadians are choosing the beach. Or they’re heading to Europe. Italy, Portugal, and Greece are seeing huge spikes in Canadian bookings. We’re swapping the Vegas Strip for the Amalfi Coast because, quite frankly, the value is better.
The domestic boom: Why we’re staying North
Maybe the most surprising part of the canadian travel us decline is where that money is going instead. We aren’t just sitting on our couches.
Destination Canada and various tourism operators are reporting a massive surge in "staycations." It turns out, when you stop spending $1.40 for every $1.00 USD, you can afford a pretty nice trip to Banff or Quebec City.
- Via Rail saw a 6.5% jump in ridership.
- Parks Canada sites are up 13% in visitors.
- Newfoundland and Labrador and Saskatchewan are seeing domestic booking growth of over 20%.
There’s a sense of "practically pride," as some travel experts call it. People are rediscovering the Maritimes or taking road trips through the Rockies because it’s easier. No border guards asking for your phone password. No exchange rate math at the gas pump. Just the Trans-Canada Highway and a bunch of Tim Hortons.
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What this means for the 2026 World Cup
This is the big question mark. The 2026 FIFA World Cup is supposed to be this huge North American celebration. But with the US tourism industry already taking a hit—the US Travel Association noted a 3.2% decline in inbound spending—there’s a lot of nervousness.
The US is still projecting $1.35 trillion in travel spending for 2026, but they’re banking heavily on the World Cup to fix the "Canadian hole" in their budget. If the border remains this "chilly," and if visa processing times don't improve (some experts are warning that if you don't have a visa now, you're not getting in for the games), the US might see some empty seats.
How to navigate travel in 2026
If you are planning to cross the border, or if you're looking for alternatives, here is how the landscape looks right now:
- Watch the Loonie: If the Bank of Canada holds rates while the Fed cuts, the CAD will gain strength. Wait for those $1.31–$1.33 windows before booking your US hotels.
- Use the "Interprovincial Pass": Look for domestic travel incentives. Many provinces are still offering "stay and play" tax credits or discounts for residents.
- Book "Destination Dupes": Instead of expensive US mountain towns, look at Canmore or Revelstoke. Instead of the Florida Keys, look at the surge in flights to Portugal’s Algarve region—the value is currently much higher for Canadians.
- Allow for Border Chaos: If you do drive across, budget at least 90 minutes for processing. The "preclearance" operations at airports like Toronto’s Billy Bishop are expanding, but land borders are still understaffed and high-stress.
The reality is that Canadian travel habits have fundamentally shifted. What started as a reaction to high prices and political "noise" has turned into a genuine trend of exploring home and overseas markets. The US will likely remain our top destination eventually—it’s just too close to ignore forever—but for 2026, the "Great Canadian Retreat" is very much in full swing.