You've seen the same headlines every June. They pop up like clockwork as soon as the Memorial Tournament wraps up and the private jets start landing near whatever historic club is hosting that year. Everyone has a "lock." Every analyst on a major network is pointing at the same three guys at the top of the Official World Golf Ranking. But honestly, following the crowd with expert picks US Open fans see on TV is usually a fast track to a drained sportsbook account.
The US Open isn't just another tournament. It's a grind. It’s a mental breakdown caught on 4K cameras. When the USGA sets up a course, they aren't looking for "birdie fests." They want the best players in the world to suffer. That’s the secret sauce. If you’re looking for who’s going to win, you have to look for the guys who actually enjoy the suffering.
Why Traditional Statistics Fail at the US Open
Most people look at "Strokes Gained: Total" and think they’ve cracked the code. They haven't. In a normal PGA Tour event, you can putt your way out of a bad driving week. At the US Open? Forget about it. If you aren't hitting the fairway, you're hacking out of four-inch thick fescue with a wedge, just trying to save a bogey.
Take a look at Bryson DeChambeau’s win at Winged Foot. People thought he "broke" the US Open by just hitting it as far as humanly possible. But if you listen to the actual data geeks—the guys like Rick Gehman or the DataGolf team—they'll tell you his putting that week was actually what sealed the deal. He didn't just bomb it; he navigated the impossible. Experts often overlook that "scrambling" factor because it’s not as sexy as a 350-yard drive.
Then you have the "Course Fit" trap. You'll hear analysts say, "Oh, this course suits a fade," or "You need to be a high-ball hitter here." Sometimes that's true. But at Oakmont or Shinnecock, it’s about who can lag putt from 60 feet without three-putting. That’s a skill that rarely shows up in the flashy expert picks US Open segments on Sunday morning previews.
The Mental Tax of the Toughest Test in Golf
Golf is a game of misses. The US Open is a game of catastrophic misses.
💡 You might also like: Why Isn't Mbappe Playing Today: The Real Madrid Crisis Explained
Think about Brooks Koepka. The guy is built for this. Why? Because he doesn't care. He literally told reporters that half the field eliminates themselves before the first tee shot because they're too intimidated by the rough. When you’re looking at picks, you have to filter out the "range rats" who look great on a Tuesday but fold when the greens hit 13 on the Stimpmeter and the wind starts howling off the coast.
Real experts—the ones who actually make money—look for "Major Championship Pedigree." It sounds like a cliché, but look at the names: Tiger, Brooks, Rahm, Scottie Scheffler. These aren't just good golfers; they’re guys with a high "frustration threshold."
The Underdog Myth
Everyone wants to find the next Lucas Glover or Michael Campbell. We love a Cinderella story. But honestly, the US Open rarely gives you one anymore. Since the mid-2000s, the winner is almost always someone inside the Top 25 of the world. The setup is too difficult for a "fluke" to survive 72 holes. If an expert is telling you to put your mortgage on a guy ranked 150th because he "grew up playing on Poa Annua grass," they're probably just trying to fill airtime.
How to Actually Use Expert Picks US Open Data
If you’re going to listen to anyone, listen to the guys who talk about "Expected Value" (EV).
Don't just look for a name. Look for the price. If Scottie Scheffler is +400 (4/1), that’s a terrible bet. He’s the best in the world, sure, but in a field of 156 players on a course designed to ruin your day, those odds don't make sense. You’re looking for the guy at +4000 (40/1) who has the same statistical profile as the leaders but had one bad putting round last week that scared off the casual fans.
📖 Related: Tottenham vs FC Barcelona: Why This Matchup Still Matters in 2026
- Total Driving: This is a combination of distance and accuracy. You can't just be long, and you can't just be straight. You need both.
- Proximity from the Rough: Since everyone is going to miss fairways, who is the best at gauging the "flyer" lie?
- Bogey Avoidance: At the US Open, a par is a gain on the field.
I remember watching the 2021 US Open at Torrey Pines. Jon Rahm was the favorite, but the "smart money" was looking at guys like Louis Oosthuizen. Why? Because Louis is the king of the "boring" par. He doesn't take risks. He doesn't fire at pins when he's in the rough. That’s the kind of nuance you need to find in expert picks US Open articles. If the writer isn't talking about "course management" and "target areas," they're just guessing based on the leaderboard from last week.
The "Home Game" Bias
This is a big one. Whenever the Open goes to Pebble Beach, everyone picks the Californians. If it’s at Pinehurst, they pick the guys who went to school in the ACC. Does it matter? Kinda. But not as much as the weather.
Microclimates are a nightmare for US Open setups. A morning wave might play in a dead calm, while the afternoon wave deals with 25 mph gusts. If you're looking for an edge, check the tee times. Sometimes the "expert pick" is just the guy who got lucky enough to avoid the Thursday afternoon wind.
Navigating the Noise of Media Coverage
Broadcasters have a job to do. They need to keep you watching. That means they're going to hype up the stars even when those stars are clearly struggling with their swing.
Remember Rory McIlroy’s drought? Every year, he’s a top expert pick. And every year, there’s a specific round where his putter goes cold or his wedges get gappy. To be a sharp observer, you have to stop listening to the "narrative" and start looking at the launch monitor data. Is the ball speed there? Is the spin rate consistent?
👉 See also: Buddy Hield Sacramento Kings: What Really Happened Behind the Scenes
Real World Example: The 2023 LACC Surprise
When the US Open went to Los Angeles Country Club, many experts were baffled. It wasn't the "narrow fairway" slog they expected. It was wide. It was weird. It looked more like a British Open in some spots. The "experts" who stuck to the old-school US Open playbook got crushed. The ones who recognized that LACC required creativity and "angulated" approaches—like Wyndham Clark—were the ones who actually predicted the outcome.
It proves that the US Open is evolving. The USGA is moving away from just "long and thick" to "firm and fast." That changes the type of player you want to back.
Actionable Strategy for Following US Open Insights
Stop looking for a single winner. It’s a suckers game. If you want to actually use expert picks US Open information effectively, focus on these markets instead:
- Top 20 Finishes: Look for the consistent grinders. Guys like Hideki Matsuyama or Xander Schauffele. They might not win, but they are almost always in the mix come Sunday.
- Make/Miss Cut: Find the guys who are struggling with their driver. If a player is outside the top 100 in "Driving Accuracy" and they're playing a tight US Open course, they’re a prime candidate to head home on Friday.
- Head-to-Head Matchups: This is where the real pros play. Instead of picking one guy against the whole field, you're just picking Player A to beat Player B. If you know Player A is a mental tank and Player B is prone to "blow-up holes," you have a massive advantage.
Practical Next Steps for Your Research
Start by ignoring the "Power Rankings" on the main sports sites. They are usually just a list of the most famous players.
Instead, go to sites like Datagolf or Fried Egg to understand the architecture of the specific course being played. Once you know if the course rewards "bomb and gouge" or "precision placement," look at the "Strokes Gained" data from the last six weeks. Ignore the wins; look at the "Strokes Gained: Tee to Green" numbers.
Finally, check the "Greens in Regulation" (GIR) percentages. At the US Open, if you're hitting greens, you're making pars. If you're making pars, you're beating 90% of the field. Follow the boring players. They're the ones who'll have you smiling when the trophy is hoisted.
Check the weather forecasts 24 hours before the first group tees off. If there’s a massive discrepancy in wind speeds between the morning and afternoon waves, adjust your expectations immediately. A "hot pick" can be neutralized by a 20 mph gust before they even reach the turn. Stay flexible, keep your bankroll managed, and don't fall in love with the big names just because the TV announcers are talking about them.