Let's be real. Every single year, the Ballon d Or ranking drops and the internet collectively loses its mind. Fans scream about "robberies." Journalists defend their votes with spreadsheets. And players? They usually just post a cryptic Instagram story or a photo of their family to show they totally don't care—even though we know they absolutely do. It's the most prestigious individual award in soccer, but it's also arguably the most subjective, frustrating, and chaotic list in professional sports.
Football is a team game. It's 11 people working in a system. Yet, we have this obsession with picking one person and saying, "Yeah, you're the best on the planet."
Since the partnership between France Football and FIFA split back in 2016, the voting has returned to a jury of specialized journalists. One representative from each of the top 100 nations in the FIFA rankings gets a vote. They pick their top five. It sounds scientific. It isn't. The criteria have shifted over the years, moving from "career achievement" to a focus on individual performance and "decisive and impressive character" during the specific season. But honestly, narrative usually wins the day.
Why the Ballon d Or Ranking Often Feels Like a Popularity Contest
You've seen it happen. A defender has an absolute world-class season—think Virgil van Dijk in 2019 or Rodri more recently—and they still have to fight tooth and nail against a flashy winger who scored thirty goals but disappeared in the big games. The Ballon d Or ranking is heavily biased toward goalscorers. It's just easier to market.
Take the 2024 ceremony as a prime example. The world was convinced Vinícius Júnior had it in the bag. The reports were everywhere. Real Madrid even boycotted the event when they found out he wasn't winning. But when the dust settled, Rodri stood there with the trophy. Why? Because the voters finally looked at "impact" over "highlights." Rodri was the heartbeat of a Manchester City team that dominated the Premier League and a Spain side that conquered Euro 2024.
He didn't have the flashy dribbles. He had the control.
This shift represents a massive change in how the Ballon d Or ranking is constructed. For a decade, it was just the Messi and Ronaldo show. They were so far ahead of everyone else that the rest of the list felt like a "best of the rest" consolation prize. Now that we've entered the post-GOAT era, the rankings are wide open. It's messy. It's unpredictable. And it's way more interesting.
The Problem with "Major Trophy" Bias
Winning the Champions League or a World Cup shouldn't be the only thing that matters, but it usually is. If you're a world-class player on a mediocre team, you might as well not exist to the France Football voters.
👉 See also: Meaning of Grand Slam: Why We Use It for Tennis, Baseball, and Breakfast
Erling Haaland scored 52 goals in a single season. 52! He won the Treble. Yet, he finished second in the 2023 Ballon d Or ranking because Lionel Messi won a World Cup in a five-week span. Is that fair? Depends on who you ask. If you value the "pinnacle of the sport," Messi was the obvious choice. If you value 38 weeks of consistent, record-breaking dominance, it was Haaland.
How the Top 30 Is Actually Selected
It starts with the editorial staff at France Football. They curate the initial 30-man shortlist. This is where most of the "disrespect" starts.
- They look at individual performance first.
- Then team success (titles).
- Then class and fair play.
The "fair play" part is wild. It basically means if you're a massive jerk on the pitch or get a lot of red cards, you're technically supposed to be docked points. In reality, voters often ignore this. They want the drama. They want the stars who sell jerseys.
Breaking Down the 2024-2025 Power Shift
We are currently seeing a total changing of the guard. For the first time in twenty years, neither Messi nor Ronaldo appeared on the shortlist recently. That is a staggering thought. The Ballon d Or ranking is now being populated by names like Jude Bellingham, Lamine Yamal, and Kylian Mbappé.
But look at the nuances. Jude Bellingham’s start at Real Madrid was stuff of legend. He was scoring like a striker while playing as a 10. Then his form dipped slightly in the second half of the season as he took on a more tactical, defensive role. The "narrative" slowed down. This is how the rankings fluctuate. A bad month in April or May—when the Champions League knockout stages happen—is worth ten "bad" months in September.
Memory bias is the biggest enemy of a fair Ballon d Or ranking.
The Midfielder's Curse (and Rodri's Breakthrough)
History hasn't been kind to the engine room. Luka Modrić winning in 2018 was seen as an anomaly, a way to reward his "work rate" and Croatia's miracle run. Usually, the guys who do the dirty work—the Busquets, the Kantes, the Casemiros—don't even crack the top five.
✨ Don't miss: NFL Week 5 2025 Point Spreads: What Most People Get Wrong
Rodri’s 2024 win was a middle finger to that trend.
It proved that the 100 journalists voting are starting to look at advanced metrics. They are looking at progressive passes, ball recoveries, and "control." You can't just look at the scoresheet anymore. If you want to understand why someone is high in the Ballon d Or ranking, you have to look at what happens when they aren't on the pitch. Manchester City’s win percentage plummeted whenever Rodri was suspended. That is the definition of "most valuable."
The "Robbery" Hall of Fame
You can't talk about these rankings without mentioning the years where the world thought the voters were hallucinating.
- 2010: Wesley Sneijder. He won the Treble with Inter Milan and took the Netherlands to a World Cup final. He didn't even make the top three. Messi, Xavi, and Iniesta took the podium. Total madness.
- 2013: Franck Ribéry. He won everything with Bayern Munich. He was the best player on the best team. He finished third behind Ronaldo and Messi. Ribéry still talks about this in interviews. He’s still mad. Honestly? He has a right to be.
- 2020: Robert Lewandowski. This wasn't even a voting error; they just cancelled the award because of the pandemic. Lewandowski had 55 goals in 47 games. He was the undisputed number one. France Football just... didn't give it out.
- 2021: Robert Lewandowski (Again). He broke Gerd Müller’s "unbreakable" Bundesliga record. He lost to Messi. Even Messi said in his acceptance speech that Robert deserved the 2020 trophy.
The Ballon d Or ranking isn't just a list of who was good at soccer. It's a snapshot of the sport's marketing, its regional biases, and the specific "vibes" of that calendar year.
Understanding the New Rules
In 2022, they changed the timeline. It used to be based on the calendar year (January to December). This was stupid. It meant a player could be amazing for one half of a season and terrible for the other, and the vote would get muddled.
Now, it's based on the European season (August to July).
This makes way more sense. It aligns with the Champions League cycle. It aligns with the domestic leagues. When you look at the Ballon d Or ranking today, you are looking at a "season review," not a "year review."
🔗 Read more: Bethany Hamilton and the Shark: What Really Happened That Morning
The Rise of the Young Guard
Lamine Yamal. At 17 years old, he’s already cracking the top ten in some circles. This is unprecedented. Not even Messi was doing this at 17. The Ballon d Or ranking is starting to skew younger because the sport is becoming more physically demanding. Teams are looking for "transition monsters"—players who can sprint 40 yards, track back, and then finish a chance.
The days of the "luxury player" who stands around waiting for the ball are over. If you aren't pressing, you aren't winning. And if you aren't winning, you aren't ranking.
How to Analyze the Rankings Like an Expert
If you want to actually predict where players will land, stop looking at the "Goals" column on Wikipedia. It's too simple. Instead, pay attention to these three things:
- Big Game Moments: Did they score in the Champions League quarter-finals? Did they show up in the Clásico? One goal in a final is worth 15 goals against a bottom-tier league side.
- The "Vibe" Shift: Is the media talking about them as the "best in the world"? The Ballon d'Or is as much an atmospheric award as a statistical one. If the L'Équipe and Marca headlines are pushing a name for three months straight, that player is moving up the ranking.
- International Performance: In tournament years (Euros, Copa América, World Cup), the club season almost doesn't matter. You could win the Premier League, but if you have a terrible Euro 2024, you're dropping five spots.
The Ballon d Or ranking is the ultimate debate starter because it tries to quantify the unquantifiable. It tries to say that a goalkeeper (like Emiliano Martínez) can be compared to a striker (like Kylian Mbappé). It's apples and oranges. But it's the only fruit salad we've got.
What You Should Do Next
Don't just take the final list at face value. To really get a grip on the current state of world football, go deeper than the top three.
- Check the voting breakdown. France Football eventually releases the points given by each country. It’s fascinating. You’ll see some journalists vote for players from their own league or region exclusively. It exposes the bias.
- Watch the "Podium Contenders." The players ranked 4th through 10th are usually the ones who will dominate the following year. They are the ones on the cusp.
- Evaluate the "Decisive Games" metric. Look at the top five players in the Ballon d Or ranking and see how many goals or assists they had against Top 5 opposition. That is the real separator between a "great" player and a "Ballon d'Or" player.
The rankings aren't a definitive truth. They are an opinion—shared by 100 people with their own biases, favorite teams, and regional loyalties. Treat it like a guide, not a gospel. Whether you agree with Rodri winning or think Vinícius was robbed, the debate is exactly what keeps the award relevant. In a world of sterile stats, the Ballon d'Or remains gloriously, stubbornly human.