If you’re still looking for poll numbers or asking who is currently winning the election for president, you might have missed the memo. The race is over. The dust didn't just settle; it was basically vacuumed up and hauled away a year ago. Right now, in early 2026, Donald J. Trump isn't "winning"—he's already in the Oval Office.
He won the 2024 election with 312 electoral votes, sweeping every single swing state. Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and North Carolina all went red. Honestly, it was a more decisive victory than many pundits predicted, especially after the chaotic summer of 2024. Kamala Harris finished with 226 electoral votes.
Why the Question Still Pops Up
People keep searching for who is winning because the political cycle feels like a never-ending treadmill. We've' spent years in a state of permanent campaigning. But the reality is that we are now well into the second year of the 47th presidency.
It's sorta wild to look back at how we got here. Remember the debate in June 2024? That was the beginning of the end for the Biden-Harris ticket's original configuration. When Joe Biden stepped aside in July, it felt like a reboot. Harris had a massive surge of momentum—the "brat summer" energy—but the "Blue Wall" didn't hold when the actual votes were counted on November 5.
Where Things Stand Right Now
Since his inauguration on January 20, 2025, Trump has been moving at breakneck speed. If you want to know who is winning the policy war, it's a different story.
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Currently, the administration is focused on a massive overhaul of the federal workforce. You've probably heard about "Schedule F." Basically, it’s an effort to reclassify thousands of civil service jobs so they can be filled by political appointees. It’s a huge deal. Critics call it the "spoils system" on steroids, while the White House says it’s about cleaning out the "Deep State."
- Executive Orders: He signed over 200 in his first year alone.
- Foreign Policy: The U.S. has officially initiated its withdrawal from the World Health Organization (WHO), which is set to be finalized any day now.
- The Border: Mass deportations aren't just a campaign slogan anymore; they are active operations. Tom Homan, the "Border Czar," has been the face of these efforts.
The Economy and the "Mandate"
Trump's team argues he has a "mandate" because he won the popular vote too—77.3 million votes to Harris's 75 million. That was the first time a Republican won the popular vote since George W. Bush in 2004.
Inflation has slowed down from the 2022-2023 peaks, but prices are still high, and that's what basically won him the election. People felt poorer. They voted for the guy who promised to "drill, baby, drill" and slap tariffs on everything.
Speaking of tariffs, that's where the real fight is right now. The administration has been aggressive with China, but also with allies. It’s caused some friction in the stock market, though the "Trump Trade" initially sent the DOW to record highs after the election.
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What Most People Get Wrong About the Current Power Balance
A lot of folks think the President has total control because Republicans also took the Senate. Not quite.
While the GOP holds a "trifecta" (the White House, the Senate, and a narrow House majority), the legal system has been a massive roadblock. Take the case of Trump v. Cook. The administration tried to fire Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. The courts blocked it, and now it’s sitting with the Supreme Court.
This shows that while one person is "winning" the presidency, the institutional checks are still very much alive. It’s a tug-of-war.
The Project 2025 Connection
You can't talk about who is winning the presidency without mentioning the blueprint. Many of the people currently running agencies, like Russell Vought at the Office of Management and Budget, were key architects of Project 2025.
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They aren't just winging it. There’s a 900-page manual they're following. Whether you love it or hate it, the level of organization is much higher than it was in 2017.
Actionable Insights for 2026
If you're trying to keep up with who is winning the political landscape, stop looking at poll numbers for an election that happened 14 months ago. Instead, watch these three things:
- The Federal Courts: Watch the Supreme Court's docket for cases involving executive overreach. This is where the real "winning" is decided now.
- Tariff Implementation: Keep an eye on the "Kuala Lumpur Joint Arrangement" and other trade deals. These will affect the price of your groceries and tech more than any speech.
- The 2026 Midterms: We are actually entering a new election cycle. The "winning" will start all over again this November when the entire House and a third of the Senate are up for grabs.
The 2024 election is history. The 2026 midterms are the new frontline. If you want to stay ahead, focus on how the current administration’s executive orders are being implemented in your specific state, as many governors are now the primary line of opposition.
Check the Federal Register daily if you want the raw data on what the White House is actually doing, rather than just the headlines. Monitoring the "Unified Agenda" of federal regulations will give you a six-month head start on understanding which industries are about to be deregulated or hit with new trade restrictions.