The 2018 Wisconsin State Assembly election was a total mess. Well, maybe not a mess if you're a Republican strategist, but for anyone looking at the math, it was a giant, confusing headache. Imagine this: you win a majority of the votes across the whole state, but you end up with barely a third of the power. That’s exactly what happened.
Democrats walked away from the polls feeling like they’d hit a home run, only to find out the fences had been moved back ten miles during the game. It’s one of the most cited examples in modern American politics when people talk about gerrymandering, and for good reason. It wasn't just a "blue wave" that hit a "red wall." It was a blue wave that hit a high-tech, data-driven dam that was built years in advance.
The Brutal Math of the 2018 Wisconsin State Assembly Election
Let’s look at the numbers. They’re wild.
In November 2018, Democratic candidates for the State Assembly pulled in about 1,306,181 votes statewide. Republicans got 1,103,622. If you're doing the math at home, that's roughly 53% to 54% of the total major-party vote going to Democrats. In a perfectly proportional world, Democrats would have taken control of the chamber.
Instead, Republicans won 63 out of 99 seats.
Think about that for a second. The party that lost the popular vote by over 200,000 ballots walked away with a supermajority-sized grip on the legislature. It’s the kind of outcome that makes people throw their hands up and say the whole system is rigged. And while "rigged" is a heavy word, political scientists use a more clinical term: efficiency gap.
The efficiency gap measures "wasted" votes—votes that don't contribute to a win because they’re either cast for a losing candidate or cast for a winner in excess of what they needed to win. In 2018, Wisconsin’s map was a masterpiece of "packing and cracking." Democrats were packed into deep-blue urban centers like Madison and Milwaukee, where they won with 80% or 90% of the vote. Thousands of those votes were "wasted" because you only need 50.1% to win. Meanwhile, Republican voters were spread out more efficiently across rural and suburban districts, winning more seats by smaller, but comfortable, margins.
Why the Blue Wave Stalled at the State Line
You’ve gotta remember the context of 2018. It was the "Year of the Woman," the first midterms under the Trump administration, and Tony Evers actually beat Scott Walker for the governorship. It felt like a massive shift in Wisconsin’s political DNA. But while Evers won the statewide executive seat, the legislative map acted like a cage.
👉 See also: What Category Was Harvey? The Surprising Truth Behind the Number
Basically, the 2011 redistricting—carried out by Republicans after the 2010 census—was designed to survive exactly this kind of scenario. They used sophisticated mapping software to ensure that even if a Democrat won the top of the ticket, the legislature would remain a Republican fortress.
It worked.
Even though Democrats flipped the Governor, the Attorney General, and the Secretary of State positions, the Assembly barely budged. Democrats only gained one single seat compared to the 2016 election. One. After gaining hundreds of thousands of more votes than their opponents. It’s honestly impressive from a purely tactical standpoint, even if it feels fundamentally "un-American" to those on the losing side.
The Role of Robin Vos and the GOP Strategy
Speaker Robin Vos was the architect of the post-election strategy. He didn't just sit back and enjoy the 63-seat majority. Before Tony Evers could even take the oath of office, Vos and the GOP-controlled legislature called a lame-duck session.
This was a huge deal. They passed laws to strip the incoming Democratic Governor and Attorney General of their powers. They wanted to make sure that even if they lost the executive branch, they could still run the state from the Assembly floor. It was a brass-knuckles move that defined Wisconsin politics for the next several years. If the 2018 Wisconsin State Assembly election showed that maps matter, the lame-duck session showed that once you have the seats, you use them to keep the power, no matter what the statewide vote totals say.
A Tale of Two Wisconsins: Rural vs. Urban
The 2018 Wisconsin State Assembly election highlighted a massive geographical divide that has only deepened since. If you live in Dane County, your vote for a State Assembly candidate probably felt like shouting into a hurricane. In Madison’s 76th District, Democrat Chris Taylor won with 92.8% of the vote. That’s a massive amount of "wasted" Democratic energy.
Compare that to the 51st District, where Republican Todd Novak won with just over 50% of the vote.
✨ Don't miss: When Does Joe Biden's Term End: What Actually Happened
Novak is actually a really interesting case. He’s a Republican who represents a district that Tony Evers won. These "cross-over" districts are becoming extinct. In 2018, there were only a handful of Republicans who managed to hold onto territory that was trending blue. They did it by focusing on local issues, but the maps certainly didn't hurt.
The Legal Battles That Followed
You can't talk about 2018 without talking about the courts. For years, activists tried to get the 2011 maps thrown out. The case Gill v. Whitford actually made it to the U.S. Supreme Court. The plaintiffs argued that the maps were an unconstitutional partisan gerrymander.
The Supreme Court basically punted.
They sent it back down on a technicality, and later, in a different case (Rucho v. Common Cause), the conservative majority ruled that federal courts don't have the power to stop partisan gerrymandering. This left the 2018 results standing as a testament to the fact that, legally speaking, "fairness" in seat distribution isn't a requirement under the U.S. Constitution.
The Impact on Policy and the 2026 Landscape
So, why should we care about an election that happened years ago?
Because the 2018 Wisconsin State Assembly election set the stage for every policy fight we’ve had since. From COVID-19 lockdowns to election integrity laws and abortion rights, the fact that the legislature is disconnected from the statewide popular vote has led to a permanent state of gridlock.
Governor Evers vetoes bills, the Assembly tries to override them, and nothing moves. It’s a stalemate. However, things are finally changing. In 2023, the Wisconsin Supreme Court flipped to a liberal majority, and they finally threw out those old maps.
🔗 Read more: Fire in Idyllwild California: What Most People Get Wrong
The 2024 and 2026 elections are being fought on entirely new ground.
For the first time in over a decade, the "efficiency gap" might actually close. We might see a legislature that actually reflects the way the people of Wisconsin vote. If the 2018 election was the peak of the gerrymandering era, we are now entering the era of the "Fair Maps" experiment.
Real-World Lessons from 2018
If you're a political junkie or just someone who wants their vote to count, there are three major takeaways from this specific election cycle:
- State-level elections are arguably more important than the Presidency. The people in the Assembly decide how your votes are counted, how your schools are funded, and where your tax dollars go.
- Geography is destiny (for now). Until the new maps were drawn, where you lived mattered more than who you voted for. If you were a Democrat in a rural area, your voice was "cracked." If you were a Republican in a city, you were "packed."
- The "Voter Turnout" myth. People often say Democrats lose because they don't show up. In 2018, Democrats showed up in record numbers. They did their job. The system just wasn't built to let that effort result in a majority.
Moving Forward: What You Can Do
The 2018 Wisconsin State Assembly election is a historical marker of what happens when data-driven map-making meets a polarized electorate. If you want to understand how to navigate the current political climate in Wisconsin, you need to look at the new districts.
Actionable Next Steps:
- Check your new district. The maps used in 2018 are gone. Go to the Wisconsin Ethics Commission or the MyVote Wisconsin website to see who your current representatives are under the new boundaries.
- Look at the "Leaning" of your area. Use sites like CNalysis or Dave’s Redistricting App to see if your district is now considered "Competitive," "Likely D," or "Safe R." The 2018 "safe" seats might be toss-ups now.
- Engage in local primary elections. In many Wisconsin districts, the real election happens in the primary because of how the voters are distributed. Don't wait until November to care.
- Support non-partisan redistricting. Regardless of your party, the 2018 results show how frustrating it is when the seat count doesn't match the vote count. Advocacy groups like the Wisconsin Fair Maps Coalition continue to work on making sure these maps don't become partisan weapons again after the next census.
The 2018 election wasn't just a win or a loss; it was a lesson in how power is structured. Understanding that structure is the only way to eventually change it.