Look back at the 2018 NFL football draft and you’ll see a league in total flux. It was a weird time. People weren’t sure if the "old guard" of quarterbacks—guys like Brady, Brees, and Rivers—were ever going to actually retire, yet every front office was panicked about finding the next big thing. They found it. Or, well, some of them did. Others are probably still having nightmares about the guys they passed on while watching certain highlights on SportsCenter.
The 2018 class wasn't just about football players. It was a cultural shift in how we evaluate talent. We saw a guy who won the Heisman but was "too short" go number one. We saw a raw athlete from Wyoming with a rocket arm and questionable accuracy become a generational superstar. We saw a running back taken at number two overall—a move that almost no modern analytics department would ever sign off on today. It was chaotic. It was beautiful. Honestly, it was the last time the draft felt like a complete roll of the dice where the house didn't always win.
The Quarterback Frenzy: Five Names, Five Very Different Fates
Everyone remembers the "Big Five." Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, Josh Rosen, and Lamar Jackson. That was the order. If you told a scout in April 2018 that Lamar Jackson—the last pick of the first round—would have two MVPs before any of the others even made a Super Bowl, they’d have called you crazy.
Baker Mayfield going first to the Cleveland Browns felt right at the time. He had that "it" factor. He planted the flag at Oklahoma. He was fiery. And for a second, it worked. He broke the rookie touchdown record (at the time) and actually won a playoff game for Cleveland. But the NFL moves fast. One minute you're the king of the Dawg Pound, the next you're bouncing around to Carolina and Los Angeles before finding a second life in Tampa Bay. Baker is the ultimate survivor of the 2018 NFL football draft. He’s still here. He’s still starting. That’s more than some can say.
Then there’s the Sam Darnold experience. The New York Jets thought they got a steal at three. He was the "safe" pick. But the "seeing ghosts" comment against the Patriots basically summed up his tenure in New York. Bad coaching, a lack of weapons, and some unfortunate injuries turned a promising career into a reclamation project.
The Josh Allen Transformation
We have to talk about Josh Allen. Coming out of Wyoming, the "draft experts" were brutal. They pointed at his 56% completion percentage and said he’d never make it. They were wrong. Buffalo took a chance on raw traits—the 6'5" frame, the ability to outrun linebackers, and an arm that could throw a ball through a brick wall.
Allen’s development under Brian Daboll is now the blueprint for every "project" quarterback. He didn't just get better; he became the offense. Watching him leap over defenders and throw 60-yard lasers on the run makes you realize that sometimes, the "risky" pick is actually the smartest one. He’s the gold standard for this class.
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Why Lamar Jackson Was the Steal of the Century
The Baltimore Ravens waited. They traded back into the first round at pick 32 to grab Lamar Jackson. Every other team had a chance to take a Heisman winner who was arguably the most electric athlete to ever play the position. They passed because they wanted him to play wide receiver. Or they feared his playing style wouldn't last.
Lamar didn't just last; he broke the league. He proved that the "pocket passer" archetype isn't the only way to win. When he’s on the field, the defense is playing a different game than everyone else. It’s 11-on-11, but it feels like the Ravens have an extra guy. The fact that he was the fifth quarterback taken is a mistake that should be taught in every "How to Evaluate Talent" course in the country.
The Saquon Barkley Debate: Value vs. Talent
The New York Giants took Saquon Barkley at number two. In 2018, this was the ultimate "old school" move. Dave Gettleman wanted a "gold jacket" player. And Saquon was exactly that. He was a freak of nature. Quads the size of tree trunks. The ability to take a handoff for 80 yards at any moment.
But this pick started a decade-long debate about the value of the running back. Was Saquon great? Absolutely. Was he worth the second overall pick when the team didn't have a long-term plan at quarterback? Probably not. Injuries hampered his mid-career years in New York, and while he’s had a massive resurgence, the "positional value" crowd still uses his selection as Exhibit A for why you don't take a RB that high.
Defensive Anchors and The Stars Who Slid
While the quarterbacks hogged the headlines, the 2018 NFL football draft was quietly a defensive goldmine. You had Bradley Chubb going fifth to Denver, who was supposed to be the next Von Miller. He’s had a solid career, though maybe not the "Hall of Fame" trajectory people expected immediately.
But look further down.
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- Roquan Smith (Pick 8) – A tackling machine who became the heart of the Ravens' (and previously Bears') defense.
- Derwin James (Pick 17) – If he could stay healthy, he’s arguably the best safety in football.
- Jaire Alexander (Pick 18) – One of the few true "shutdown" corners left in the league.
- Minkah Fitzpatrick (Pick 11) – A guy so good the Dolphins traded him, and he immediately became an All-Pro for the Steelers.
The depth was insane. Fred Warner went in the third round. Think about that. The best middle linebacker in the NFL was the 70th pick. Darius Leonard (the Maniac) went in the second round and immediately became an All-Pro. The scouts found elite talent in the middle rounds that essentially built the foundations of today's best defenses.
The Josh Rosen Situation: A Cautionary Tale
"The nine mistakes made ahead of me." That’s what Josh Rosen said after being drafted 10th by the Arizona Cardinals. It’s one of those quotes that didn't age well. In fact, it aged like milk in a hot car.
Rosen was supposed to be the most "pro-ready" passer in the class. He had the footwork. He had the pedigree. But he lacked the mobility and the adaptability needed for the modern NFL. The Cardinals moved on after just one year to draft Kyler Murray. It was a cold, calculated move that showed the league was changing. Front offices were no longer willing to "wait and see" for three years. If you didn't have it, you were out. Rosen became a journeyman, a stark reminder that being "pro-ready" in college doesn't mean much if you can't handle the speed of the Sunday game.
All-Pro Talent Outside the First Round
If you want to know why some teams are always good and some are always bad, look at the later rounds of the 2018 NFL football draft.
Nick Chubb went 35th. He’s arguably the most pure runner in the league when healthy. Courtland Sutton went 40th and became a WR1 for Denver. Mark Andrews, a three-time Pro Bowl tight end, went in the third round at pick 86.
Then you have the legends of the late rounds. Wyatt Teller was a 5th rounder. He’s now one of the highest-paid guards in the league. Jordan Mailata—a guy who had literally never played football and was a rugby player from Australia—was taken in the 7th round by the Eagles. He’s now a franchise left tackle. That’s just incredible scouting and development. It’s the kind of stuff that makes the draft the most important three days on the NFL calendar.
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The Legacy of 2018
When we look back at this specific year, it’s defined by the "what ifs."
What if the Browns took Josh Allen?
What if the Jets took Lamar Jackson?
What if the Colts didn't trade back and stayed to take Saquon?
This draft proved that the NFL is a league of systems. Josh Allen thrived because Buffalo built a system for him. Lamar Jackson thrived because John Harbaugh was willing to rewrite the playbook. Sam Darnold struggled because the Jets' infrastructure was crumbling.
The 2018 class was the bridge between the old NFL and the new, mobile-heavy, RPO-driven league we see today. It gave us superstars who play the game with a different flair. It gave us some of the best defensive players of a generation. And it gave us plenty of "busts" to talk about at the bar for years to come.
Actionable Insights for Football Fans and Analysts
The 2018 NFL football draft offers several lessons that still apply to how we should view the draft today. If you're looking to understand future classes, keep these takeaways in mind:
- Evaluate the Environment, Not Just the Player: A quarterback's success is roughly 50% talent and 50% organizational stability. Before labeling a rookie a "bust," look at their coaching staff and offensive line.
- Don't Overlook "Raw" Traits: Josh Allen proved that accuracy can be improved if the physical tools and work ethic are elite. Teams are now much more willing to draft for ceiling rather than floor.
- Positional Value is Real: While Saquon Barkley is a generational talent, the 2018 draft reinforced that taking a running back in the top five is a luxury most rebuilding teams can't afford.
- The "Last Pick" Advantage: Lamar Jackson being pick 32 allowed the Ravens to have a fifth-year option on his contract, which is a massive financial advantage. That end-of-the-first-round spot is one of the most valuable trade targets in the draft.
- Watch the Second Round: The 2018 class showed that the gap between a late first-round pick and an early second-round pick is almost non-existent in terms of Pro Bowl potential.
The draft is never a sure thing. It's an educated guess at best, and a total gamble at worst. But the 2018 class remains one of the most fascinating studies in how a single weekend can alter the course of dozens of franchises for over a decade.