Nobody knew. Honestly, if any general manager tells you they saw it coming, they’re lying. On April 16, 2000, the NFL changed forever, but it didn't feel like a revolution at the time. It felt like a gamble on a skinny kid from Michigan with a "pooch-belly" and a slow 40-yard dash.
The Tom Brady draft class is the ultimate case study in how professional scouting can fail spectacularly. We’re talking about a year where 198 players were picked before the greatest winner in team sports history. Think about that for a second. It wasn't just a few mistakes; it was a league-wide oversight that spanned two full days of drafting.
The 2000 NFL Draft was supposed to be about "The Brady Six." No, not Tom. It was about the six quarterbacks who teams actually wanted.
Who Were the "Brady Six"?
Basically, six guys were deemed more "pro-ready" or physically gifted than the kid from San Mateo.
Chad Pennington went first. He was the 18th overall pick for the New York Jets. To be fair to Chad, he had a decent career. He was incredibly accurate and won Comeback Player of the Year twice. But his arm was basically held together by surgical tape by the end of it. Then you had Giovanni Carmazzi. The 49ers took him in the second round. He never played a single down in a regular-season NFL game. Not one. He’s a goat farmer now. Life is weird.
Chris Redman, Tee Martin, Marc Bulger, and Spergon Wynn rounded out the group.
Bulger actually had some Pro Bowl years with the Rams, but the others? They’re mostly trivia answers now. Tee Martin is a respected coach these days, but as a player, he couldn't replicate what he did at Tennessee. Spergon Wynn is the name most people point to when they want to show how deep the failure went. He was taken at 183 by the Browns. Brady sat there for another 16 picks while teams looked at their boards and thought, "Nah, give me the guy from Southwest Texas State."
The Scouting Report That Missed Everything
Why did everyone pass?
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Scouts are obsessed with measurable data. At the 2000 NFL Scouting Combine, Brady looked... well, he looked like a guy who had never seen a weight room. He ran a 5.28-second 40-yard dash. That is painfully slow. For context, some offensive linemen run faster than that. His vertical jump was a measly 24.5 inches.
The report from the time was brutal. It said he lacked a really strong arm. It said he was "lanky" and "couldn't escape the pass rush." They weren't necessarily wrong about his physical stats. They just missed the part that actually matters: the brain and the heart.
Michigan didn't help his case much either. Coach Lloyd Carr kept platooning him with Drew Henson, the hotshot recruit who eventually went to play baseball for the Yankees. If his own college coach wouldn't commit to him fully, why should an NFL GM?
The Patriots’ Internal Debate
Bill Belichick and Scott Pioli weren't geniuses who knew Brady was a Hall of Famer. They just liked him more than others did.
Dick Rehbein, the Patriots' quarterbacks coach who sadly passed away before the 2001 season, was the guy who really pushed for Tom. He saw something in the way Brady stepped up in the Orange Bowl against Alabama.
The Patriots actually had a decent quarterback in Drew Bledsoe. They didn't need a starter. But by the sixth round, the value was just too high to ignore. When pick 199 came around, they finally bit.
It’s crazy to think that if the Patriots had taken a linebacker or a backup guard there, Brady might have ended up as an undrafted free agent or signed with the CFL. He almost didn't make the roster as a rookie. New England carried four quarterbacks that year, which is almost unheard of in the modern NFL. They kept him because they were terrified another team would snatch him up if they put him on the practice squad.
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Lessons from the Tom Brady Draft Class
The Tom Brady draft class teaches us that "The Process" is flawed. You can measure height, weight, and speed, but you can't measure how a guy reacts when he’s down by four with 90 seconds left on the clock.
Look at the guys who went high in 2000.
- Courtney Brown (No. 1 overall) - A massive bust for Cleveland.
- LaVar Arrington (No. 2) - Great player, but injuries shortened his peak.
- Sebastian Janikowski (No. 17) - A kicker in the first round!
The draft is a crapshoot.
One of the biggest misconceptions is that the 2000 class was weak. It actually produced some legends. Brian Urlacher was in this class. So was Shaun Alexander and Jamal Lewis. It wasn't a talent vacuum; it was just a year where the greatest talent was hidden in plain sight.
The Psychological Impact of Being 199
Brady used that draft position as fuel for over two decades. He famously told Robert Kraft, "I'm the best decision this organization has ever made." That wasn't just confidence; it was a manifesto.
Every time a young quarterback gets overhyped today, we look back at the Tom Brady draft class as a warning. It’s the reason why scouts now look for "intangibles," though they still struggle to define what those actually are.
Could it happen again? Honestly, probably not. With the amount of data, film, and GPS tracking we have now, a guy with Brady’s college production wouldn't slip that far. But then again, Brock Purdy was "Mr. Irrelevant" just a few years ago. Maybe we haven't learned as much as we think.
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Comparing the "Brady Six" Careers
It’s almost mean to look at the stats, but for historical accuracy, we have to.
- Chad Pennington: 102 games, 102 TDs, 64 INTs. Solid.
- Giovanni Carmazzi: 0 games.
- Chris Redman: 31 games, 21 TDs. A career backup.
- Tee Martin: 3 games, 0 TDs.
- Marc Bulger: 96 games, 122 TDs. Actually a very good pro.
- Spergon Wynn: 10 games, 1 TD, 7 INTs.
Then there’s Tom. Seven Super Bowl rings. More wins than any other quarterback. More yards. More touchdowns.
The gap isn't just a gap; it’s a canyon.
Actionable Insights for Fans and Analysts
If you're looking at current draft prospects or trying to understand NFL roster building, keep these points in mind:
- Ignore the 40-yard dash for QBs. Unless they’re a dual-threat player like Lamar Jackson, straight-line speed is the most overrated stat for a pocket passer.
- Look at the "Big Game" tape. Brady’s performance against Alabama in his final college game showed he was a winner, even if his scouts ignored it.
- Value mental processing. The ability to read a defense in 1.5 seconds is worth more than a 95-mph fastball arm.
- Context is everything. Brady slipped because of Michigan's two-QB system. Always ask why a player isn't starting before assuming they aren't good enough.
The next time your team drafts a guy in the late rounds that you've never heard of, don't turn off the TV. They might not be the next Tom Brady—chances are they won't even make the team—but the 2000 draft proved that the NFL's elite can come from the most unlikely places.
If you want to understand the history of the league, you have to start with the 198 names that came before number 199. It's a list of missed opportunities that still haunts 31 front offices to this day.
For those looking to dive deeper into sports history or draft analytics, checking out the Pro Football Reference "Draft Finder" tool is a great next step. You can filter by round and position to see just how many Pro Bowlers were missed in any given year. It really puts the randomness of the NFL into perspective. Also, watch the "The Brady 6" documentary if you can find it. It's the definitive look at the men who were picked over him and where they are now.