You’re sitting there with a plate of turkey, maybe half-watching the Lions game, and the thought hits you: Is the market doing anything right now? Honestly, if you’ve spent any time on FinTwit or Reddit lately, you've probably seen people obsessing over "Santa Rallies" or "Black Friday bounces." But the reality of the thanksgiving day stock market is a bit weirder and a lot quieter than the hype suggests.
Basically, the big thing to know is that the doors are locked.
The Thanksgiving Day Stock Market Schedule
First things first. The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and the Nasdaq do not open on Thanksgiving. Period. No pre-market, no after-hours, no "secret" institutional session. If you try to execute a trade on Thursday, November 26, 2026, it’s just going to sit there in a queue until Friday morning.
The bond market follows suit. SIFMA (the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association) recommends a full close for U.S. dollar-denominated fixed-income securities. So, if you’re looking to play with Treasuries, you’re out of luck until the sun comes up on Friday.
What happens on Black Friday?
Things get a little quirky the day after. While the rest of the country is fighting over discounted air fryers, Wall Street wakes up for a "half-day."
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- Market Opens: 9:30 a.m. ET
- Market Closes: 1:00 p.m. ET
- Bond Market Closes: 2:00 p.m. ET
It's a strange session. Most senior traders aren't even at their desks. They’ve extended their weekend, leaving the junior associates and the algorithms to run the shop. This leads to what we call "thin" liquidity. When there aren't many people buying or selling, even a relatively small trade can move the needle more than usual.
Why Does Everyone Talk About a Thanksgiving Rally?
There’s this persistent myth—or maybe it's a "market anomaly"—that stocks always go up during Thanksgiving week.
If you look at the data from the last 75 years, there’s actually some truth to it. Researchers like Yale Hirsch, who founded the Stock Trader’s Almanac, have pointed out that the days surrounding major holidays often show a bullish bias. People are generally in a better mood. They’re optimistic. And for some reason, that psychological "holiday effect" tends to manifest as a slight upward drift in prices.
Since 1957, the S&P 500 has averaged a gain of about 0.34% on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving and roughly 0.3% on the Friday after. In fact, over the last decade, the week of Thanksgiving has outperformed its "expected" return in seven out of ten years.
Does it actually mean anything?
Kinda. But you have to be careful. In 2021, for example, the market completely bucked the trend and went sideways to down because everyone was freaking out about late-year volatility. Then you look at 2022—a miserable year for stocks overall—and yet Thanksgiving week delivered a surprising upside.
The lesson? Seasonality is a wind at your back, not a motor on your boat. It helps, but it won't save a sinking ship.
Retail Stocks and the Black Friday Myth
Most folks assume that because Black Friday is the "biggest shopping day of the year," retail stocks like Walmart (WMT), Target (TGT), or Amazon (AMZN) must skyrocket.
It doesn't really work that way.
The market is forward-looking. By the time you see the news footage of crowds at a suburban mall, the "good news" of holiday spending is usually already priced in. Investors are actually looking at the data that comes out a few days later—specifically from Adobe Analytics or the National Retail Federation (NRF).
If online sales hit $11 billion instead of the projected $10 billion, that moves the stock. If the numbers are just "okay," the stock might actually drop because the "whisper numbers" (what traders secretly expected) were higher.
How to Actually Play the Thanksgiving Day Stock Market
If you’re looking for actionable moves rather than just trivia, keep these three things in mind:
- Watch the Volume: Friday's session is notorious for "fake" moves. Because volume is so low, a price spike at 11:00 a.m. on Friday might completely vanish by Monday morning when the "real" money returns to the office. Don't chase a breakout on a half-day.
- The Wednesday "Window": Historically, the Wednesday before Thanksgiving is one of the quietest but most consistently green days of the year. Some traders use this to trim winners or set up "lotto" plays for the following Monday.
- Crypto is the Exception: Remember, Bitcoin and Ethereum don't take a day off for turkey. If there’s a massive global news event on Thursday, the crypto market will react in real-time while the thanksgiving day stock market is frozen. This can sometimes lead to a "gap" (a big jump or drop in price) when the NYSE opens on Friday morning as the stock market tries to catch up to the rest of the world.
The "Quiet" Risks Nobody Talks About
We talk about the upside, but there’s a dark side to holiday trading. Low liquidity works both ways. If bad news breaks—like a sudden geopolitical shift or a surprise inflation print—the lack of buyers can cause a "flash" move downward. There’s nobody there to "catch the falling knife."
Also, keep an eye on the VIX (the "Fear Gauge"). Often, volatility gets crushed leading into the holiday because nobody wants to make big bets. This makes options cheaper, but it also means that if a move does happen, it can be violent.
Your Thanksgiving Strategy
Instead of staring at stagnant charts on Thursday, use the time to do a "portfolio audit."
Look at your winners and losers for the year. Are you holding something just because you're afraid to admit you were wrong? Thanksgiving is a great time for tax-loss harvesting—selling those losers to offset the gains you made on Nvidia or whatever else ran up this year.
Actionable Next Steps:
- Check your limit orders: Since the market is closed Thursday and closes early Friday, make sure you don't have "Good 'Til Canceled" (GTC) orders sitting out there that might get triggered by a low-volume "hiccup" on Friday morning.
- Review Retail Sentiment: Check the NRF (National Retail Federation) early projections on Friday afternoon. This will give you a head start on how Monday’s "Cyber Monday" trades might play out.
- Enjoy the break: Seriously. The most successful traders know when to walk away. The thanksgiving day stock market isn't going anywhere, and the best thing you can do for your long-term returns is to clear your head so you're ready for the December "Santa Rally" run.
Set an alert for the 9:30 a.m. open on Friday, but don't expect fireworks. The real action usually waits until the following Monday when the big institutions are back in their seats and the turkey coma has finally worn off.