Honestly, if you live in Texas, you’re used to the weather having a bit of a personality disorder. One day you’re in shorts, and the next you’re digging for the heavy coat you swore you wouldn’t need until February. But right now, things are getting weird even by our standards.
We are currently staring down a weekend where two completely opposite threats are happening at the exact same time. On one hand, the National Weather Service just slapped a Freeze Warning on a massive chunk of the state, including San Antonio and the Austin metro. On the other, we’ve got a Red Flag Warning because the air is so bone-dry and the winds are so gusty that a single spark could set half a county on fire.
It’s the kind of news on texas weather that makes you want to stay inside, but also makes you realize you have a lot of chores to do before the sun goes down.
The First Big Freeze of 2026
If you’re in San Antonio, it’s been a while. About 329 days, to be exact. That’s how long it’s been since the Alamo City saw a proper freeze, but that streak ends Sunday morning, January 18.
The NWS Austin/San Antonio office isn't playing around. They’ve called for temperatures to plummet starting Saturday night. We’re looking at a drop into the 40s right after sunset, hitting the 30s by 10 p.m., and then bottoming out between 26°F and 31°F around 2 or 3 a.m. Sunday.
It’s not just a "light frost" situation. This is a "protect the four P’s" (People, Pets, Plants, Pipes) kind of night. If you’ve got those sensitive tropical plants on the patio, bring 'em in now. And yeah, it’s probably time to drip those faucets and open the cabinet doors under your sinks. Nobody wants a burst pipe on a Sunday morning.
✨ Don't miss: Franklin D Roosevelt Civil Rights Record: Why It Is Way More Complicated Than You Think
What the numbers look like for the week
The state-wide forecast for the next several days shows a bit of a roller coaster:
- Saturday: High of 44°F, low of 26°F. Mostly cloudy, breezy northeast winds at 15 mph.
- Sunday: Brighter skies with a high of 60°F, but that morning start is going to be brutal at 25°F.
- Monday: High of 55°F, low of 30°F. A slight 10% chance of rain/snow mix at night.
- Mid-week: Things "warm up" (if you can call it that) into the 60s by Wednesday before another potential dip.
Why the Red Flag Warning is actually scarier
You’d think the cold would be the main story, but the fire risk is arguably more urgent right now. Central Texas—specifically Travis, Hays, Williamson, Bastrop, and Llano counties—is under a Red Flag Warning until 8 p.m. Saturday.
Basically, we’ve had a ton of grass growth from the previous year, and all that vegetation is now "freeze-cured" and dry as tinder. When you combine that with 15-20 mph winds and humidity levels dropping into the 20% range, you get a powder keg.
Texas A&M Forest Service is already reporting that wildfire response is 136% above normal for this time of year. Since October, they've already fought over 400 fires. This isn't just a "don't toss your cigarette" warning; it's a "don't even mow your lawn" warning. A mower blade hitting a rock can throw a spark that moves faster than you can run in this wind.
The Grid: Will the lights stay on?
The question everyone asks whenever news on texas weather involves a temperature drop: Is ERCOT ready?
🔗 Read more: 39 Carl St and Kevin Lau: What Actually Happened at the Cole Valley Property
The short answer is yes, but with a side of "we're watching it." ERCOT has issued an Operating Condition Notice (OCN) due to the wildfire risk, but as of today, they expect to have plenty of power to meet the demand. Since the 2021 disaster, nearly 2,500 plants have been inspected for weatherization.
However, some experts are still a bit skeptical. Dr. Brent Bennett recently pointed out that while we’ve added a ton of solar and battery storage, our "dispatchable" power (the stuff we can turn on when the sun isn't shining, like gas and coal) hasn't grown nearly as fast as the state's population.
So, while the grid looks stable for this specific freeze, the long-term math is still a bit tight. For now, you don't need to panic, but having a backup plan is just good Texas common sense.
Looking ahead: Is an "Arctic Outbreak" coming?
There’s been a lot of chatter on social media about a "Snowmageddon" part two coming in late January.
Let's look at the facts. Meteorologists like Avery Tomasco and the team at Texas Storm Chasers are watching a massive pool of cold air building up in Canada. There’s a chance some of that spills down here in the last week of January.
💡 You might also like: Effingham County Jail Bookings 72 Hours: What Really Happened
But—and this is a big "but"—the current La Niña pattern usually means Texas stays warmer and drier than average. We might get a sharp "blue norther" or two, but a total state-wide deep freeze isn't a guarantee yet.
What you should actually do right now
Don't wait until 10 p.m. Saturday night to realize you don't have enough firewood or that your outdoor spigots are exposed.
- Wrap your pipes: Even a towel and some duct tape is better than nothing, but the foam covers are cheap and work best.
- Check your heaters: If you haven't turned on your furnace yet this year, do it now to make sure it doesn't smell like burning dust or, worse, not work at all.
- Respect the burn ban: Seriously. With the Red Flag Warning, a backyard fire pit is a terrible idea this weekend.
- Pet safety: If it’s too cold for you to stand outside without a coat for 20 minutes, it’s too cold for your dog to sleep outside.
The news on texas weather changes fast, but for this weekend, the plan is simple: stay warm, stay hydrated, and for heaven's sake, don't start any fires. If you're traveling through the Hill Country, keep an eye on the wind, as those gusts can be tricky for high-profile vehicles.
Keep your eyes on local updates as we move into next week, especially as that slight chance of a rain/snow mix pops up for Monday night. It probably won't be much, but in Texas, it only takes a little bit of the white stuff to turn the highways into a parking lot. Winter is finally here; let's just make sure we're ready for it.