So, here we are in 2026, and if you haven't been paying attention to the Forty Acres lately, you've missed a certified roller coaster. Being the Texas starting quarterback isn't just a job; it’s basically a high-stakes residency in a glass house where everyone has a stone ready to throw. Honestly, after the Quinn Ewers era wrapped up with him heading to the Miami Dolphins as a seventh-round flyer in 2025, the spotlight didn't just find Arch Manning—it practically tried to melt him.
People thought the transition would be seamless. It wasn't.
Last year was... complicated. Arch came in with that massive last name and even bigger expectations, but the "processing bumps" were real. He threw for 3,163 yards and 26 touchdowns in 2025, which sounds great on paper, but those seven interceptions and some early-season hesitation had the message boards in a total meltdown. But then, something clicked. The way he dismantled Michigan in the Citrus Bowl—41-27, with four total touchdowns—basically silenced the "should he transfer?" noise for good.
Why the Arch Manning Hype Still Matters
It’s easy to get cynical about a kid who grew up with NFL royalty as uncles. But watching him in Steve Sarkisian’s system, you see why the scouts are drooling over the 2027 NFL Draft. He’s 6-foot-4, 220 pounds, and he actually runs better than Peyton or Eli ever did. He put up nearly 400 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground last season. That’s not "Manning" football; that’s modern, SEC-ready dual-threat production.
There was a lot of talk about him hitting the portal after Texas missed the Playoff last year. Fans were nervous. News broke just this past December, though, that he’s officially staying for the 2026 season. He even took a "pay cut" in the NIL department to help the program bring in more weapons, which is a wild move in this day and age.
Basically, he's all in on winning a natty before he goes pro.
The Roster Flip Around Him
Texas isn't just sitting around hoping Arch gets better. They’ve been aggressive. Sarkisian just landed Cam Coleman out of the portal from Auburn, which is a massive win since Arch lost his roommate and reliable target Parker Livingstone to a rival program.
- The Weaponry: Cam Coleman is the big name, but Ryan Wingo is still there, and the offensive line is getting a facelift with Melvin Siani.
- The Backup Situation: Watch out for Dia Bell. He’s the five-star freshman coming in this spring. If Arch so much as sneezes, the fans will start chanting for the new kid. That’s just how it goes in Austin.
- The Schedule: Opening against Ohio State last year was a trial by fire. This year, the SEC slate is even more brutal.
What Most People Get Wrong About the QB1 Battle
People love to say that Arch only got the job because of his name. That’s just flat-out wrong. Quinn Ewers was a monster for Texas, leading them to two Playoff appearances, but his injury history—shoulder sprains, abdominal strains—opened the door. Arch had to sit and wait. He didn't complain. He didn't jump ship when Maalik Murphy left for Duke.
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He stayed. He learned.
The 2025 season was a "growing pains" year. He was the preseason Heisman favorite (which was a bit much, let’s be real) and he didn't even make the finalist list. That went to Fernando Mendoza at Cal. But the way Manning finished the last six games of the season? Nobody in the country was playing better. He looked like a guy who finally stopped thinking and started playing.
Real Talk on the Numbers
If you look at his 2025 campaign, the completion percentage was 61.4%. That’s okay, but it needs to be 65% plus if he wants to be the No. 1 overall pick. He was sacked 23 times. Some of that is on the line, but a lot of it was Arch holding onto the ball too long, trying to make the "pro" play instead of just throwing it away.
Sarkisian has been vocal about this. He needs Arch to be more decisive. We saw that version of him in the Citrus Bowl—quick triggers, layering the deep ball over the top, and using his legs when the pocket collapsed. If that guy shows up in September 2026, the rest of the SEC is in deep trouble.
The Verdict on 2026
Right now, Arch Manning is the +750 favorite for the 2026 Heisman. It’s a familiar spot, and honestly, a dangerous one. We've seen preseason favorites like CJ Stroud and even Quinn Ewers fall short. The pressure is astronomical.
But here is the thing: the talent around him is better now than it was last year. Losing Livingstone hurt, but gaining Coleman and keeping Wingo gives him a vertical threat that most NFL teams would envy.
What you should do next: Keep a very close eye on the spring game. With five-star Dia Bell enrolling early, the "backup" pressure is going to be the main storyline. If you’re a betting person, don't just look at the Heisman odds; look at the Texas "Over" on wins. They’re built to win 11 games this year.
Arch has the arm, the frame, and finally, the experience. He’s no longer just a "legacy" prospect. He is the engine of the Texas offense. Whether he can turn that 10-3 record from last year into a 12-0 run is the only question that matters now.
If you're tracking the Longhorns this spring, prioritize watching how Manning connects with the new transfer receivers in 7-on-7 drills. The timing wasn't there in early 2025, and they can't afford a slow start again if they want to jump Ohio State in the rankings.