If you’ve walked into a Texas Roadhouse lately, you know the vibe. It’s loud, there’s a bucket of peanuts on every table, and the smell of fresh rolls is basically a localized weather event. But if you’re looking at the stock price Texas Roadhouse is sporting right now, things feel a little different than they did a couple of years ago. As of mid-January 2026, the stock (trading under the ticker TXRH) is sitting around $194.49.
That’s a big number. Honestly, it’s near the top of its 52-week range, which topped out at $199.99.
But here’s the thing: most people just look at the ticker and think "expensive steakhouse, expensive stock." They miss the actual mechanics under the hood. The restaurant industry had a brutal 2025. Inflation didn't just annoy people at the grocery store; it hammered the back-of-house costs for every chain in America. While some of the big fast-food players saw their share prices crumble as diners retreated, Texas Roadhouse managed to pull off a 12.9% surge just in the last month.
Why? Because they have a weirdly loyal customer base that refuses to stop showing up.
The Beef With Margins
You can't talk about the stock price Texas Roadhouse relies on without talking about cows. Beef inflation is the monster under the bed for this company. In late 2025, commodity inflation was hitting nearly 8%. That is a massive headwind when your entire brand is built on "The Big Steak."
When beef prices go up, profits usually go down. It's simple math.
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However, the company has been aggressively raising menu prices—about 1.7% late last year and another 1.4% earlier—to try and keep their head above water. It’s a delicate dance. If they raise prices too much, the "value" part of their brand dies. If they don't raise them enough, the stock price gets punished by analysts who hate seeing shrinking margins. Currently, restaurant margins are hovering around 14.3%, which is a bit of a drop from the 16-17% levels we saw back in 2024.
Investors are betting that this is the bottom.
There's a growing narrative among experts like those at BMO Capital and Mizuho that beef costs might finally be easing in 2026. If the cost of a ribeye drops while those menu price hikes stay in place, the "margin expansion" story starts to look very juicy for anyone holding the stock.
Growth Is More Than Just Rolls
Management isn't just sitting around waiting for cows to get cheaper. They are building.
For 2026, the plan is to open roughly 35 new company-owned locations. This isn't just more of the same, though. They are diversifying into:
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- Texas Roadhouse: The bread and butter (literally).
- Bubba’s 33: Their sports bar concept that’s starting to find its legs.
- Jaggers: A fast-casual chicken and burger joint that's their "hail mary" for the lunch crowd.
They’re also buying back franchises. In early 2025, they snapped up 13 franchise restaurants for $78 million. When a company buys its own franchises, it’s usually because those locations are printing money and the corporate office wants a bigger slice of that pie. It boosts the "average unit volume"—which for Texas Roadhouse is a staggering $163,000 per week per store.
That is a lot of steaks.
The Dividend Factor
If you’re a "buy and hold" person, you’re probably looking at the yield. The current dividend is $0.68 per share quarterly, which works out to about a 1.4% to 1.5% yield. It’s not going to make you rich overnight, but they’ve been raising it like clockwork.
In 2025, they bumped the payout by 11.5%. They’ve now increased dividends for 14 years straight.
This tells you something about the board's confidence. They have $400 million earmarked for capital expenditures (new buildings and tech) in 2026, yet they still feel comfortable shipping cash back to shareholders. That’s a signal that the cash flow is healthy, even if the stock price Texas Roadhouse shows is currently trading at a high price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of nearly 30.
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What Actually Matters Moving Forward
Some analysts think the stock is overvalued by 15-20%. Others have price targets as high as $220. Who’s right?
It probably depends on "same-store sales." This is the metric that measures how much more (or less) money existing restaurants are making compared to last year. Right now, that number is up around 6%. If that stays positive, the stock stays up. If people finally get tired of $30 steaks and that number dips to 1% or 2%, expect a correction.
There’s also the "to-go" business. During the pandemic, everyone thought it was a fluke. But today, about $22,000 of that $163,000 weekly take is still coming from to-go orders. That’s high-margin business because you don't have to pay a server to wait on the table or a busser to clean it.
The real risk isn't the food; it's the consumer.
If the economy wobbles and the "eating-away-from-home" category takes a hit, Texas Roadhouse is a discretionary spend. People don't need a 12-ounce sirloin. But so far, the "Roadhouse" brand seems to be acting more like a "staple" than a luxury. People are trading down from expensive local steakhouses to the Roadhouse, which actually helps the stock.
Actionable Insights for Investors
If you're watching the ticker, keep these specifics in your notes:
- Watch the 52-week High: The stock is bumping up against the $200 ceiling. Psychologically, that's a big barrier. If it breaks through and stays there, it could signal a new bull run.
- Monitor Beef Futures: Since beef is their largest commodity cost, any major spike in cattle prices will almost certainly lead to a short-term dip in the stock.
- Check the February Earnings: The next major data dump is expected around February 19, 2026. This is where we'll see if the late-2025 menu price increases actually protected the margins or if they just drove customers away.
- Analyze the P/E Ratio: At a 29.7 P/E, you are paying for growth. If you are a value investor, this might feel too rich. If you are a growth-at-a-reasonable-price (GARP) investor, the consistent 10% earnings growth forecast might justify the premium.
Ultimately, the company is betting on its ability to out-expand its costs. They are leaning into 5-6% store-week growth for 2026, which should, in theory, offset any lingering inflation pain. Whether you buy in now or wait for a pull-back, the story remains the same: it's a battle between the cost of the cow and the loyalty of the customer.