So, here we are in 2026, and if you walk into a Texas Roadhouse on a Tuesday night, you’re still probably waiting forty-five minutes for a table. It’s wild. Even with the "dining out is too expensive" crowd getting louder, this place keeps humming along like a well-oiled machine. But if you’re looking at the ticker TXRH and trying to figure out if it belongs in your portfolio, things get a bit more complicated than just counting the buckets of peanuts on the floor.
Honestly, the Texas Roadhouse stock performance analysis right now is a tug-of-war. On one side, you've got record-breaking revenues and traffic that just won't quit. On the other, you have the "beef problem." And man, is it a problem.
The Beef With Beef (and the Margin Squeeze)
Let’s get the elephant—or rather, the cow—out of the room. Texas Roadhouse is basically a beef-buying company that happens to serve rolls with cinnamon butter. When cattle prices go through the roof, the bottom line feels it immediately.
In late 2025, the company got smacked by 7.9% commodity inflation, mostly because beef costs were way higher than anyone expected. Management had to adjust their outlook for 2025 mid-game, and they’ve already warned us that 2026 is going to see another 7% jump in commodity costs.
It’s a tough spot.
CEO Jerry Morgan has been pretty vocal about not wanting to "price out" his customers. They raised menu prices by about 1.7% recently, which is basically a drop in the bucket compared to what they’re paying for sirloin. This commitment to "value" is why the dining rooms are full, but it’s also why restaurant-level margins slipped down to 14.3% in the third quarter of 2025.
For some investors, that margin compression is a massive red flag.
If they can't pass those costs along, the earnings per share (EPS) growth starts to look a lot less exciting. However, the "smart money" seems to be betting on the cattle cycle being transitory. If beef prices even slightly level off in the back half of 2026, those margins could snap back like a rubber band.
The Expansion Engine: Beyond the Steakhouse
One thing people often forget is that Texas Roadhouse isn't just one brand anymore. They are aggressively leaning into their younger siblings: Bubba’s 33 and Jaggers.
Bubba’s 33 is their sports bar concept, and it's starting to find its footing with average weekly sales hitting roughly $119,000. Then you’ve got Jaggers, the fast-casual spot, which is doing about $75,000 a week. These aren't just side projects. For 2026, the company is planning to open about 35 new company-owned restaurants, including 10 Bubba’s and 5 Jaggers.
- Store-week growth is projected at 5% to 6% for 2026.
- Total capital expenditures are sitting around $400 million.
- They’re even buying back their remaining franchise locations in California, which suggests they see a lot of untapped potential in the Golden State.
Why the Stock Price is Being So Stubbornly Resilient
You’d think with all this inflation talk, the stock would be in the gutter. But it’s not. As of mid-January 2026, TXRH is trading around $194, flirting with its 52-week highs.
Why? Because the traffic is undeniable.
While other casual dining chains are begging people to come back with coupons, Texas Roadhouse saw 6.1% comparable sales growth last year. People are actually "trading down" from more expensive steakhouses to Roadhouse, and they’re "trading up" from fast food because, frankly, a burger at a drive-thru isn't that much cheaper than a sit-down meal here anymore.
Also, the dividend is a nice little security blanket. They just approved another $0.68 per share quarterly payment. They’ve been hiking that dividend for over a decade. If you’re a long-term holder, you’re basically getting paid to wait for the beef cycle to turn in your favor.
The Analyst Perspective (Is It Overvalued?)
If you ask 10 analysts, you’ll get 10 different price targets. Some see the stock hitting $220 if margins recover, while others think it’s overvalued at a P/E ratio of nearly 30.
Actually, the consensus is mostly a "Hold" or a "Buy." Nobody is really shouting "Sell" from the rooftops. That’s because the company has over $100 million in cash and very little debt compared to its peers. It’s a clean balance sheet.
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But you’ve got to be careful. The stock shed about 6.6% in 2025 because of those margin fears. It’s volatile. If a 2026 earnings report shows that labor costs (rising at 3% to 4%) and beef costs are both hitting at the same time, the stock could easily pull back into the $170s.
Actionable Insights for Your Portfolio
So, what do you actually do with this texas roadhouse stock performance analysis?
If you’re a swing trader, the current $190-$200 range feels a bit crowded. There’s a lot of "perfection" baked into the price right now. You might want to wait for a "beef-induced" dip.
But if you’re a long-term investor? The story is different. The company’s digital kitchen rollout—now in 95% of stores—is making them more efficient. Their to-go business is still holding strong at over $21,000 per week per store. They are growing the footprint without taking on crazy amounts of debt.
Watch the Cattle Reports. Seriously. The "USDA Cattle on Feed" reports will tell you more about TXRH stock than any chart pattern ever will. When herd sizes start to grow again, that’s your green light.
Monitor Bubba’s 33 Execution. If those 10 new locations in 2026 start hitting the $150k weekly sales mark, the stock moves into a new tier. It proves they aren't a one-trick pony.
Check the California Integration. Buying those 5 remaining franchise stores in California is a test. If they can manage the higher labor laws and costs there while keeping margins healthy, it’s a huge win.
Don't just look at the stock price. Look at the parking lot. As long as those lots are full, Texas Roadhouse is a compounding machine that’s just waiting for a break in commodity prices to really take off.
Your Next Steps:
- Review the upcoming Q4 2025 earnings report (usually released in February) to see if the 1.7% price hike actually helped the margins.
- Compare TXRH's forward P/E against Darden (DRI) and Bloomin' Brands (BLMN) to see if the "Roadhouse Premium" is still worth paying.
- Keep an eye on the 10-year Treasury yield, as restaurant stocks tend to be sensitive to interest rate shifts that affect consumer spending.