Texas weather is basically a chaotic neutral character in a high-stakes RPG. One minute you're scraping ice off a windshield in Amarillo, and three days later, you’re sweating through a linen shirt in San Antonio. It’s wild. If you've lived here long enough, you know the "wait five minutes" rule. But looking at the Texas long term weather forecast for 2026, we’re actually seeing some patterns that aren't just the usual random dice rolls.
Right now, we are shaking off the ghost of La Niña. For the last few years, that "triple-dip" pattern has basically been a heat lamp over the Lone Star State. It kept the jet stream pushed up north, leaving us dry, dusty, and honestly, a little tired of looking at brown lawns. But the Climate Prediction Center is showing a massive shift. We are moving into ENSO-neutral territory as we head into spring 2026, with a very real chance of El Niño swinging back around by the time we hit the fall.
The Big Shift: From Dust to (Hopefully) Deluge
So, what does that actually mean for your backyard?
The early months of 2026—January through March—are still feeling those dry La Niña leftovers. We’ve already seen record-challenging warmth in cities like San Antonio, where highs hit the mid-80s on New Year’s Day. That’s not normal. Or maybe it’s the new normal. Either way, it’s been unseasonably toasty. The Texas A&M Forest Service is already on high alert because all that grass we grew during the wetter bursts of 2025 has turned into "freeze-cured" kindling.
Drought isn't just a buzzword here; it’s a lifestyle, unfortunately.
Bexar County and parts of South Texas have been struggling with a rain deficit since 2022. When we talk about the Texas long term weather forecast, the most important variable is the jet stream. During the transition to ENSO-neutral this spring, that jet stream starts to wobble. It’s less of a rigid barrier and more of a wandering path. This usually opens the door for those "April showers" to actually show up in May and June. Dr. Mark Wentzel from the Texas Water Development Board has pointed out that these three months are the "make or break" period for our reservoirs. If we don’t get the soak then, the Texas summer is going to be brutal.
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Spring 2026: The Wildcard Season
Expect a lot of "weather whiplash" this spring.
- North Texas (DFW): You’ll likely see those classic supercell setups. With the atmosphere transitioning, the clash between warm Gulf moisture and lingering dry air from the west is going to be intense.
- The Panhandle: Still looking a bit dry. Amarillo and Lubbock often stay on the wrong side of the dryline during these neutral transitions.
- The Gulf Coast: Humidity is going to ramp up early. Houston is already looking at "Very High" heat indices as early as May.
Honestly, the "neutral" phase is the hardest to predict. It’s like a car in neutral on a hill—it could roll either way depending on a stiff breeze. But the consensus among meteorologists like Justin Horne and the team at KSAT is that we are "thumbing the scale" toward more rain by the end of the year.
Hurricane Season 2026: An Average Year?
Let’s talk about the coast. The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season kicks off June 1st. Early outlooks from groups like EuroTempest and Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) are projecting a season that’s... surprisingly average. We’re looking at maybe 14 named storms and 7 hurricanes.
But "average" is a dangerous word in Texas.
Remember, it only takes one. Even in an average year, if the steering currents are right, the Texas coast can take a direct hit. The big factor here is the sea-surface temperature. The Atlantic Main Development Region is already running warm. If El Niño develops fast, it creates wind shear that "chops off" the tops of developing storms, which is good for us. If El Niño is slow to arrive, the Gulf of Mexico is basically a warm bath waiting to supercharge anything that wanders in.
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Summer Heat: No Surprise There
If you’re hoping for a cool summer, I’ve got bad news.
Even with a shift toward El Niño, the Texas long term weather forecast for July and August 2026 is leaning toward "above average" temperatures. We’re talking 10 hours of sunshine a day and highs consistently in the mid-90s to low-100s. The difference this year might be the humidity. An El Niño influence often brings more Gulf moisture, which means the "feels like" temperature is going to be the real killer. It’s that heavy, wet air that makes you feel like you’re breathing through a warm washcloth.
What You Should Actually Do About It
Forecasting is great, but it doesn't mean much if you aren't prepared for the specific weirdness of 2026. Here is how to handle the next six to eight months.
1. Fix your irrigation now. If the spring rains don't hit their targets, we’re going to see Stage 2 or Stage 3 water restrictions in Austin and San Antonio by July. Check for leaks in your lines while the weather is still "pleasant-ish."
2. Watch the "Dormant" Fire Season. Because we had a decent growing season last year, the fuel load (grass) is huge. If you live in the Hill Country or west of I-35, clear out the brush around your home. The Texas A&M Forest Service isn't joking about the wildfire risk this spring.
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3. Don't trust the January warmth. Just because it’s 75 degrees in Dallas today doesn't mean a "Blue Norther" won't scream through in February. Keep the frost blankets for your plants handy until at least mid-March.
4. Plan for a "Wet-ish" Late 2026. If the El Niño transition holds, the end of 2026 (September through December) could be significantly wetter than the last three years. This is great for the lakes, but it also means you should check your roof and gutters before the fall storms hit.
The reality of the Texas long term weather forecast is that we are finally seeing an end to the relentless dry cycle. It’s not going to happen overnight, and we’re going to have to sweat through another intense summer first. But for the first time in a while, the atmospheric "big picture" is moving toward relief rather than restriction.
Keep an eye on the Pacific sea-surface temperatures. If those waters keep warming, the back half of 2026 might actually be the year we stop talking about the "triple-dip" and start talking about full reservoirs again.
Next Steps for Texans:
Check your local county's drought stage and sign up for "CodeRED" or similar emergency weather alerts. With the wildfire risk being 136% above normal this winter, staying informed on daily wind shifts is more critical than the three-month outlook. If you are on the coast, start your "hurricane kit" inventory in April before the May rush.