Texas House Election Results: Why the GOP Supermajority is More Fragile Than it Looks

Texas House Election Results: Why the GOP Supermajority is More Fragile Than it Looks

Texas politics is weird. Honestly, if you just glanced at the Texas house election results from the 2024 cycle, you’d think it was just another year of the "Red Wall" standing tall. The Republicans ended up with 88 seats, while the Democrats settled at 62. On paper, it’s a dominant GOP majority. But if you actually dig into the numbers and the names, it's pretty clear that the real drama wasn't between Republicans and Democrats. It was a full-scale civil war within the Republican party itself.

Governor Greg Abbott and Attorney General Ken Paxton spent the better part of the year trying to primary their own colleagues. That’s not normal. Usually, parties protect their incumbents. In Texas? They spent millions to take them out.

The School Voucher War Changed Everything

You can't talk about the Texas house election results without talking about school vouchers. This was the "litmus test" for 2024. Greg Abbott wanted "Education Savings Accounts" (ESAs) to pass, but a coalition of Democrats and rural Republicans blocked him.

Those rural Republicans—people like Travis Clardy and Glenn Rogers—weren't being "liberal." They were just worried that taking money away from public schools would kill their local communities where the school district is the biggest employer.

Abbott didn't care. He endorsed challengers against nearly every Republican who voted against the bill. And it worked.

Nine Republican incumbents were wiped out in the March primary. Six more fell in the May runoffs. By the time the general election rolled around in November, the "anti-voucher" Republican was basically an extinct species.

Who Got the Boot?

It wasn't just random backbenchers. We're talking about established names:

  • Travis Clardy (District 11): Lost to Joanne Shofner.
  • Glenn Rogers (District 60): Lost to Mike Olcott.
  • Steve Allison (District 121): Lost to Marc LaHood.
  • Hugh Shine (District 55): Lost to Hillary Hickland.

This was a purge. Plain and simple. When the new session started in January 2025, the House looked fundamentally different. The new members weren't just "Republicans"; they were "Abbott Republicans."

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The Phelan vs. Covey Showdown

The biggest headline of the texas house election results was definitely Dade Phelan. As the Speaker of the House, he had a massive target on his back. Ken Paxton wanted him gone because Phelan led the impeachment effort against him.

Phelan's race in District 21 (Beaumont) was a bloodbath. He was forced into a runoff against David Covey, a guy who had the backing of Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, and Dan Patrick.

Phelan survived. Barely.

He won by 366 votes. You’ve probably had more people at a high school football game than the margin that kept the Speaker in power. But even though he won his seat, the internal pressure didn't stop.

The Speaker Race Twist in 2025

So, Phelan wins his election, but does he keep his gavel? Nope.

By the time January 14, 2025, rolled around, the House had to pick a leader. In a surprising turn—sorta—Dustin Burrows from Lubbock managed to pull together a coalition to become the next Speaker. He defeated David Cook after two rounds of voting.

Burrows is interesting because he had to play both sides. He needed enough "establishment" votes to keep things functional and enough "hardline" votes to satisfy the Abbott/Paxton wing. It’s a tightrope walk.

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What Happened to the Democrats?

While the GOP was busy eating its own, Texas Democrats were... well, they were struggling.

There was a lot of talk about a "Blue Wave" or at least a "Blue Ripple" in the suburbs. It didn't happen. In fact, the GOP actually expanded their majority by one seat.

The most shocking part of the Texas house election results for Democrats was the Rio Grande Valley. For a hundred years, places like Starr County were deep blue. In 2024, Trump won Starr County by 15 points. That filtered down to the state house races.

Republicans flipped District 34, where Denise Villabolos beat Solomon P. Ortiz Jr. They also took District 80, with Don McLaughlin (the former Uvalde mayor) winning a seat that had been held by Democrats for decades.

Why Turnover Matters More Than the Total

If you only look at the 88-62 split, you miss the point. The composition of those 88 Republicans is what matters.

The "Old Guard" of the Texas House—the guys who would grab a beer with Democrats and cut deals on the budget—is almost gone. They’ve been replaced by ideological warriors.

The Partisan Breakdown in Prose

Republicans now hold 58.6% of the seats. That is a solid majority, but not a supermajority (which would require 100 seats). This means they can pass most things on a party-line vote, but they still can't ignore the rules or constitutional requirements that need a two-thirds vote without some help.

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However, the "Abbott Majority" on school vouchers is now estimated to be around 79 or 80 seats. That’s enough to pass the Governor’s top priority without needing a single Democrat.

Voter Turnout: The Great Disappointment

We had record registration. Over 18.6 million Texans were signed up to vote. But when it came time to actually show up? Turnout was only about 61%.

That’s a 6% drop from 2020.

Most of that drop-off happened in big blue counties like Harris (Houston) and Dallas. If you're a Democrat, that's a nightmare. If people in the cities don't vote, the GOP wins by default because rural turnout stays high and consistent.

Actionable Insights for 2026 and Beyond

If you're trying to make sense of what this means for the future of Texas, here are the three things you need to watch:

  1. Monitor the School Voucher Bill: Now that the "anti-voucher" Republicans are gone, watch how fast this moves through the House. If it passes early in the session, it’s a sign that Abbott has total control.
  2. Watch the Primary Season: The 2024 Texas house election results proved that the primary is the "real" election in Texas. If you want to influence policy, you have to engage in March, not just November.
  3. The South Texas Shift: This wasn't a fluke. Republicans are making permanent inroads with Hispanic voters in the Valley. If Democrats don't change their messaging on the border and the economy, they might lose South Texas for a generation.

The 2024 cycle proved that Texas isn't "turning blue" anytime soon. Instead, it’s turning into a different shade of red—one that is more aggressive, more ideological, and much less interested in the bipartisan traditions of the past.

For the next two years, the House won't just be debating bills; it will be a laboratory for the most conservative policies in the country. Whether you love that or hate it, the Texas house election results made it possible.

If you want to stay ahead of the next cycle, keep a close eye on the District 21 and District 80 representatives. Their performance will tell us if the GOP can hold onto these new gains or if the pendulum is ready to swing back.