Arch Manning is the guy. It feels like we’ve been waiting a decade to say that definitively without looking over our shoulders for Quinn Ewers, but here we are in January 2026, and the keys to the Ferrari are officially in the hands of the kid from New Orleans. If you’ve followed the soap opera on the Forty Acres over the last couple of years, you know it hasn't been a straight line.
There was the redshirt year. Then the "will he or won't he" transfer portal rumors that turned out to be nothing but message board smoke. Finally, we saw the 2025 season where Arch took over as the Texas football starting QB and, honestly, it was a bit of a rollercoaster. He finished the year with 3,163 passing yards and 26 touchdowns, but it wasn't always pretty. He had the "yips" early on, double-clutching throws and looking like a freshman playing in the fastest conference in America.
But then something clicked.
The Reality of Arch Manning's 2025 Performance
People love to look at the name on the back of the jersey and expect 400 yards and five touchdowns every Saturday. That didn't happen right away. Manning struggled in road games against Georgia and Florida, which shouldn't surprise anyone who actually watches SEC football. The speed of the pass rush in this league is a different animal.
Steve Sarkisian had to simplify things. He realized his young quarterback was playing too mechanically, trying to be a "Manning" instead of just being an athlete. By the time the Arkansas game rolled around in late 2025, we saw the version of Arch that makes NFL scouts drool. He threw for 389 yards in that game and started using his legs more—he actually finished the season with 10 rushing touchdowns.
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It's funny because the national media spent half the year wondering if he’d declare for the 2026 NFL Draft. Pat McAfee and others were debating it daily. But on December 16, 2025, the news dropped: Arch is staying. He knows he needs one more year of "refinement," as the evaluators say. He wants a Heisman. He wants a ring. And frankly, with the weapons Texas just landed in the portal, he might get both.
Why 2026 Looks Different for the Longhorns
The roster around the Texas football starting QB is undergoing a massive facelift. If you missed the news, Sark just landed Cam Coleman, the top receiver in the portal. Pairing Coleman with Ryan Wingo? That's just unfair.
- Cam Coleman: The vertical threat Texas missed last year.
- Ryan Wingo: Going into his junior year with a massive chip on his shoulder.
- Raleek Brown and Hollywood Smothers: Two of the most explosive backs in the country joining the rotation.
There's also a kid named Dia Bell coming in. He’s a five-star recruit who’s going to play the "student" role that Arch played behind Quinn. It's a healthy room, but make no mistake, this is Manning's team. The biggest hurdle isn't the talent; it’s the offensive line. Texas lost five guys to the portal recently, including freshman Nick Brooks. Kyle Flood has his work cut out for him to make sure Arch doesn't spend half the game on his back like he did at times in 2025.
What the Scouts are Saying
I talked to a few guys who watch the tape for a living. They aren't worried about the 61.4% completion percentage from last year. They look at the "big time throws"—the ones into tight windows or 50 yards downfield on a rope. Arch has those.
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"He’s got the frame at 6-foot-4 and 220 pounds. He’s faster than Peyton or Eli ever were. If he cleans up his pre-snap reads and stops holding the ball for four seconds, he's the easy QB1 for the 2027 draft."
That's the ceiling. The floor is what we saw in the middle of last season: a talented kid who sometimes overthinks the play-call. Sarkisian’s "vertical passing identity" requires a quarterback who can process information at light speed. Manning is getting there, but he’s not a finished product yet.
The Quinn Ewers Shadow is Finally Gone
It’s weird to think about Quinn Ewers as an NFL veteran now, but he’s currently starting for the Miami Dolphins after Tua Tagovailoa went down. His exit from Austin was polarizing. He was a 7th-round pick, which still feels insane given he was once a "perfect 1.000" recruit.
But his departure allowed the program to breathe. For two years, every time Quinn missed a throw, the stadium chanted for Arch. That's a toxic environment for a locker room. Now, the hierarchy is clear. There is no backup breathing down Manning's neck who has the star power to displace him. Matthew Caldwell is the backup—a solid, experienced guy who transferred from Troy—but he’s there to support, not to start.
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What to Expect Heading into Spring Ball
As we move toward the spring of 2026, the focus for the Texas football starting QB is simple: leadership and consistency. Arch has the "perfect mindset," according to those close to the program. He isn't worried about NIL money—the kid is a Manning, he’s doing fine—he’s worried about his legacy on the Forty Acres.
- Audibles and Protection Checks: This was a weakness in 2025. He needs to be able to get Texas out of bad plays against blitz-heavy SEC defenses.
- Decisiveness: If the first read isn't there, tuck it and run. He has the wheels; he just needs to use them sooner.
- Red Zone Efficiency: Texas left too many points on the field last year. Arch had 7 interceptions, and a few of them were forced throws in the end zone.
The 2026 Heisman odds just dropped, and Manning is sitting near the top of the list at FanDuel. That’s a lot of pressure for a guy who just finished his first full year as a starter. But if you’ve watched him handle the spotlight since he was 15 years old, you know he’s built for it.
The Longhorns are projected to be a Top 5 team going into next season. With Will Muschamp now running the defense and a refreshed offensive line, the pieces are there. It basically comes down to whether Arch can take that "C-grade" from his sophomore year and turn it into an "A" as a junior.
To stay ahead of the curve this season, watch the spring game closely. Look for how much freedom Sarkisian gives Manning at the line of scrimmage. If he’s checking out of runs into passes and identifying the mike linebacker correctly, the rest of the SEC is in big trouble. Keep an eye on the chemistry with Cam Coleman; that's the connection that will define the 2026 season.