Honestly, if you’ve lived in Texas long enough, you know the drill. One day you’re wearing shorts and firing up the grill, and the next, you’re frantically wrapping hose bibs and praying the power grid holds.
It's happening again.
Right now, a sharp cold front is slicing through the Lone Star State, and while it might not be a repeat of the 2021 nightmare, it’s enough to make anyone a little jumpy. As of Saturday, January 17, 2026, the National Weather Service has issued a series of alerts that every Texan needs to take seriously. We're talking about the coldest air of the season so far.
The Reality of the Texas Extreme Cold Weather Forecast
Basically, we’re looking at a classic "temperature rollercoaster."
In North Texas, Dallas and Fort Worth are bracing for Sunday morning lows in the mid-20s. If you’re closer to the Red River, it’s going to feel like the teens. That’s a massive swing from the 60-degree weather some areas saw just a few days ago.
Further south, Austin is activating cold weather shelters tonight. Forecasters there expect a widespread freeze with temperatures dipping to around 30 degrees at Camp Mabry, and even lower—mid to upper 20s—in the surrounding Hill Country. Even Corpus Christi, which usually stays pretty balmy, is looking at a "Weather Impact Alert" for a light freeze Sunday morning.
The wind is the real kicker. It’s not just the mercury dropping; it’s the northeast gusts at 15 to 17 mph making it feel significantly harsher.
Is the Grid Actually Ready?
This is the question everyone asks. Honestly, the answer is complicated.
ERCOT (the Electric Reliability Council of Texas) has been busy. Since the 2021 disaster, nearly 2,500 power plants have undergone weatherization inspections. New rules now compel utilities to prove they can handle the deep freeze.
But here’s the rub. While ERCOT says they expect to have enough generation to meet demand this winter, some experts are still raising eyebrows. Between 2021 and 2026, Texas added a massive 31 GW of solar and 17 GW of batteries, but only about 3 GW of reliable natural gas capacity. Solar is great for a summer heatwave, but it doesn't do much at 6:00 AM on a Sunday morning when the sun isn't up and everyone has their heaters cranked to 75.
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For this specific front, the risk of a widespread blackout remains low. However, ERCOT’s own "Monthly Outlook for Resource Adequacy" (MORA) suggests that the highest risk for energy emergencies usually hits right around 8:00 AM.
That’s the "danger zone" where the morning cold peaks and the solar hasn't kicked in yet.
What’s Driving This Chill?
We’re currently dealing with a weak La Niña.
Usually, La Niña means a warmer, drier winter for Texas. But "average" is a dangerous word. Even in a warm winter, you can get these sharp, brutal "polar vortex" dips that catch people off guard. That's exactly what this weekend is: a brief but intense plunge before we bounce back into the 60s by Monday afternoon.
There's also a weird side effect to this front—fire danger.
Because it’s been so dry and the front is bringing in "thirsty" air with low humidity, several counties in Central and North Texas are under Red Flag Warnings. It sounds counterintuitive to worry about fires when you’re shivering, but the combination of dead winter grass and high winds is a powder keg.
What You Should Actually Do Right Now
Forget the generic "stay warm" advice. Here is the move-by-move playbook for this specific forecast.
- Drip the right faucets: You don’t need to run a stream. A slow drip on the faucet furthest from your water main is usually enough to keep the pressure from building up and snapping a pipe.
- Mind the 8:00 AM Peak: If you want to help the grid (and your bill), try to run your dishwasher or laundry tonight rather than tomorrow morning between 6:00 AM and 9:00 AM.
- Check the "Four Ps": People, pets, plants, and pipes. If your neighbor is elderly, give them a ring. If your dog is outside, bring them in—if it’s too cold for you, it’s too cold for them.
- Fire Safety: With the Red Flag Warnings in place, avoid any outdoor burning or activities that could spark. Those 40 mph gusts west of the Metroplex can turn a small spark into a disaster in minutes.
The good news? This isn't a week-long siege. By Monday, January 19, most of the state will be back in the mid-50s or 60s. We just have to get through the next 36 hours without a burst pipe or a dead car battery.
Next Steps for Your Household
First, verify your local "Freeze Warning" status via the National Weather Service, as timing varies by 2–3 hours depending on whether you’re in North or South Texas. Second, ensure your vehicle’s tire pressure is checked; these 30-degree drops often trigger "low pressure" sensors, which is the last thing you want to deal with on a Sunday morning. Finally, if you rely on electric medical equipment, double-check your backup power source today while the weather is still manageable.