If you’re trying to figure out how many electoral votes does Texas have, you’ve probably noticed the numbers shifted recently. It’s 40.
For the 2024 and 2028 presidential cycles, Texas officially commands 40 electoral votes. That’s a massive jump from where things stood just a few years ago. Honestly, if you still have the number 38 stuck in your head, you aren't crazy—that was the count for the 2012, 2016, and 2020 elections. But things changed after the 2020 Census.
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Texas is basically the heavyweight of the South now. It has the second-highest number of electoral votes in the entire country, trailing only California (which has 54). To put that in perspective, winning Texas is worth as much as winning roughly 13 smaller states like Wyoming, Alaska, and Vermont combined.
Why the Number Jumped to 40
The reason for the change is pretty straightforward: people keep moving to Texas. Under the U.S. Constitution, the number of electoral votes each state gets is equal to its total Congressional delegation. That means you take the number of U.S. Senators (which is always 2 for every state) and add the number of seats that state has in the U.S. House of Representatives.
Texas currently has 38 members in the House of Representatives.
38 House Members + 2 Senators = 40 Electoral Votes.
Following the 2020 Census, Texas was the only state in the nation to gain two additional seats in Congress. While states like New York and California actually lost a seat, the population boom in cities like Austin, Dallas, and Houston pushed Texas’s representation higher. It’s a zero-sum game; since the total number of House seats is capped at 435, for Texas to gain two, someone else had to lose them.
The Winner-Take-All Reality
One thing that trips people up is how these votes are actually cast. In Texas, it’s a "winner-take-all" system. This means if a candidate wins the popular vote in the state by even a single person, they get all 40 electoral votes.
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Some states, like Maine and Nebraska, split their votes. Texas doesn't play that way. You’ve probably seen the "Blue Texas" vs. "Red Texas" debates on the news every four years. Because of the winner-take-all rule, those 40 votes represent a massive "all-or-nothing" prize for political parties. If the state ever actually flipped, it would essentially break the current math for the Republican party's path to the White House.
Looking Ahead: Will Texas Gain More?
Believe it or not, 40 might just be a pit stop. Early projections for the 2030 Census suggest Texas is on track to gain even more influence. Some demographers at places like the Brennan Center for Justice and Esri have projected that if current migration trends hold, Texas could gain another 3 to 4 seats by 2032.
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If those projections are right, we could be looking at a Texas with 43 or 44 electoral votes in the 2030s. That would make it an even more dominant force in American politics than it already is.
Quick History of Texas Electoral Power:
- 1976: 26 votes (The last time a Democrat, Jimmy Carter, won the state)
- 2004: 34 votes
- 2020: 38 votes
- 2024/2028: 40 votes
It’s worth noting that the "electors" themselves aren't just numbers on a screen. They are real people—usually party activists or local leaders—who meet in Austin after the general election to cast the official ballots. While "faithless electors" (people who vote for someone other than their party's candidate) have happened in Texas history, the state has passed laws to try and prevent that from messing with the results.
Actionable Insights for Voters
If you're watching the next election, keep these three things in mind:
- Check your registration: In Texas, you must be registered at least 30 days before an election. You can't just show up and sign up on Election Day.
- Monitor the 2030 Census: The next "official" count happens in a few years. Participation in the census is what literally determines how much power Texas has in Washington.
- The 270 Threshold: To become President, a candidate needs 270 electoral votes. Texas now provides nearly 15% of that entire requirement.
The growth of Texas isn't just about more people at the BBQ; it’s a fundamental shift in how the United States chooses its leaders. Whether you're a political junkie or just curious, 40 is the number to remember for the foreseeable future.