Texas is basically entering a political fever dream. If you’ve been following the news, you know Ken Paxton isn’t just a name; he’s been a fixture. But for the first time in over a decade, the seat is wide open. Paxton is vacating the office to take a swing at U.S. Senator John Cornyn, leaving a massive power vacuum in Austin.
Honestly, it’s a mess. A fascinating, expensive, high-stakes mess.
The Texas attorney general race isn’t just about who becomes the state's top lawyer. It’s about the soul of the Texas GOP and whether the Democrats can finally—finally—crack the statewide code. With the primary scheduled for March 3, 2026, the gloves are already off. Money is pouring in. Endorsements are being traded like baseball cards.
The Republican Civil War
On the Republican side, it’s a four-way street fight. You’ve got the MAGA purists, the institutionalists, and the firebrands.
Chip Roy is currently the elephant in the room. A U.S. Representative with a penchant for bucking leadership, Roy is leading the pack in early polling. A November 2025 Pulse Decision Science poll put him at 40%. That’s a huge lead when you consider his closest rival, State Senator Joan Huffman, was sitting at 13%.
Roy’s pitch? He knows the office. He was the First Assistant Attorney General under Paxton. He’s got Ted Cruz in his corner.
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But don’t count out Mayes Middleton. The man is a fundraising machine. As of mid-January 2026, Middleton has a staggering $11.8 million in the bank. He’s running as a "steadfast ally" of Donald Trump, even though Trump’s actual endorsement hasn’t landed on his desk yet. Middleton is literally giving away his salary and rejecting his state pension to prove he’s not a "career politician." It’s a move that plays well with the base, even if his rivals call it a stunt.
Then there’s Aaron Reitz. He’s the guy Paxton actually endorsed. Reitz served as a Deputy AG under Paxton and briefly ran the Office of Legal Policy at the DOJ. He’s the "true MAGA" candidate in his own words. He’s currently polling in the single digits (around 7-8%), but with Paxton’s blessing, he’s trying to consolidate the hardcore loyalists.
Joan Huffman is the outlier. She’s the moderate—at least by Texas standards. She’s a former prosecutor and judge with the backing of the Combined Law Enforcement Associations of Texas (CLEAT). She’s betting that voters are tired of the constant national headlines and want a "law and order" AG who focuses on the nuts and bolts of the office.
Can Democrats actually win this time?
The Democratic primary is a bit more civil, but no less competitive.
You’ve basically got three main contenders:
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- Joe Jaworski: The former Mayor of Galveston. He’s been here before, running in 2022. He’s got the name recognition and a legacy (his grandfather was Leon Jaworski of Watergate fame).
- Nathan Johnson: A State Senator from Dallas. He’s the "policy guy." He’s smart, articulate, and thinks he can win over suburban voters who are leaning blue but scared of "radical" labels.
- Tony Box: A Dallas attorney and former FBI agent. He’s the wild card.
The polling for the Dems is... well, it’s a lot of "I don't know." A December 2025 Texas Southern University poll showed 57% of Democratic primary voters are still undecided. Jaworski is leading with 21%, followed closely by Johnson at 19%.
The "Paxton Factor" and 2026 Dynamics
You can't talk about the Texas attorney general race without talking about the man who’s leaving. Ken Paxton has spent years turning the AG's office into a "battering ram" against federal overreach. Whether you love him or hate him, he redefined the role.
The next AG will have to decide: Do they keep the lawsuits against the White House coming, or do they pivot back to consumer protection and child support?
Aaron Reitz says he’ll be an "offensive coordinator" just like he was for Paxton. He’s already talked about trying to remove Democratic District Attorneys in Harris and Travis counties. Chip Roy wants to fight the border "invasion." On the flip side, Nathan Johnson and Joe Jaworski are screaming for transparency and a return to "rule of law" that doesn't involve constant litigation against the federal government.
The numbers suggest a Republican lean, obviously. Sabato’s Crystal Ball has the seat as "Safe Republican." But a generic Republican vs. Democratic poll from August 2025 showed a tight 47% to 44% margin. That’s within the margin of error. If the GOP primary gets too bloody—which it usually does—the winner might come out bruised enough for a Democrat to make a real run in November.
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What most people get wrong
Most people think this race is just about who gets the most TV ads. Wrong.
In Texas, it’s about the runoff.
If no one gets 50% plus one vote on March 3, the top two go to a runoff on May 26. This is where things get weird. Turnout drops. The most motivated (and usually most extreme) voters show up. A candidate like Middleton, with $11 million to spend on a two-man race in May, could easily steamroll a frontrunner who ran out of gas in March.
Summary of Candidates (By the Numbers)
| Candidate | Party | Key Stat | Current Polling (High) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chip Roy | GOP | 40% in recent polls | 40% (Pulse/TSU) |
| Mayes Middleton | GOP | $11.8M cash on hand | 13% (Pulse/TSU) |
| Joan Huffman | GOP | Endorsed by CLEAT | 13% (Pulse/TSU) |
| Aaron Reitz | GOP | Endorsed by Ken Paxton | 8% (UofH/TSU) |
| Joe Jaworski | Dem | Former Galveston Mayor | 21% (TSU) |
| Nathan Johnson | Dem | State Senator (Dallas) | 20% (TSU) |
Actionable Steps for Texas Voters
If you're trying to make sense of the Texas attorney general race, don't just look at the glossy mailers.
- Check the campaign finance reports: You can see who is buying your candidate. Use the Texas Ethics Commission website. If a candidate is funded by three billionaires, they probably aren't "independent."
- Verify the endorsements: Don't take a "MAGA" or "Conservative" label at face value. Look at who actually put their name on the line. Did the police unions back them? Did the grassroots groups?
- Understand the primary rules: Texas has open primaries. You don't have to register as a Republican or Democrat beforehand. You just show up and ask for the ballot of the party you want to vote in. But remember: if you vote in the GOP primary, you can only vote in the GOP runoff if one happens.
- Mark your calendar: Early voting starts February 17, 2026. The primary is March 3. If you wait until November, the most important decisions might have already been made for you.
The race is heating up, and honestly, it’s going to be a wild ride through the spring. Whether Texas stays on the Paxton path or pivots to something new depends entirely on which side shows up to the polls in March.