Texas is red. It’s been red since 1994, the year George W. Bush ousted Ann Richards and changed the trajectory of the Lone Star State for a generation. But when you look back at the Texas 2016 election results, things feel... different. It wasn’t just another blowout.
Donald Trump won. Obviously. He took the state’s 38 electoral votes and beat Hillary Clinton by about nine points. 52.2% to 43.2%, if we’re being precise. But honestly? That nine-point margin was the closest a Democrat had come to winning Texas in twenty years. People forget that Mitt Romney blew Obama out of the water by 16 points just four years prior. McCain won by 12. Bush? He won by over 20.
So, 2016 was a massive, vibrating wake-up call. It was the moment the "Big Three" counties—Harris, Dallas, and Bexar—stopped being purple-ish and turned deep, bruised blue. It was the year the suburbs started to crack.
The Night the Red Wall Thinned
If you were sitting in a watch party in Austin or Houston on election night in 2016, you probably saw something you didn't expect. The rural areas were behaving exactly as predicted. Trump was racking up 80% or 90% of the vote in places like Roberts County or Glasscock County. That’s standard. That's the bedrock of Texas Republicanism.
But then the urban returns started trickling in.
In Harris County, which is basically the heartbeat of Houston, Hillary Clinton didn't just win; she crushed it. She took the county by 161,000 votes. Compare that to 2012, when Obama won it by less than a percentage point. That is a gargantuan shift. It’s a tectonic plate moving five miles in a single night.
Why? It wasn't just one thing. It was a cocktail of changing demographics, a massive surge in Latino voter registration, and—crucially—college-educated white voters in the suburbs who found Trump's brand of populism a bit too loud for their tastes.
Breaking Down the Numbers
Let's look at the raw data because the numbers tell a story that vibes and "gut feelings" usually miss.
Trump finished with 4,685,047 votes.
Clinton finished with 3,877,868 votes.
That gap of roughly 800,000 sounds like a lot until you realize that in 2012, the gap was almost 1.3 million. Clinton found half a million more voters in Texas than Obama did, while Trump only grew the Republican total by about 115,000 over Romney.
You’ve gotta realize how weird that is for a state that was supposedly getting "more Republican" according to some pundits.
The Suburbs: Where the Real War Was Fought
If you want to understand the Texas 2016 election results, you have to look at the "Donut Counties." These are the affluent, suburban rings around the big cities. Think Fort Bend outside of Houston or Williamson County north of Austin.
Historically, these were the places where Republicans went to get their margins. These were "safe" areas.
In 2016, Fort Bend County flipped blue. It was the first time that had happened since the Reconstruction era. Imagine that. A place that stayed red through the civil rights movement and the Reagan era finally flipped because of the specific dynamic between Trump and Clinton.
Tarrant County—home to Fort Worth—stayed red, but just barely. Trump won it by about 8 points. Again, Romney had won it by 16. The erosion was everywhere. It was like watching a levee start to sweat before it actually breaks.
The Third Party Factor
We can't talk about 2016 without mentioning Gary Johnson and Jill Stein. In Texas, they actually mattered.
Gary Johnson, the Libertarian candidate, pulled over 283,000 votes. That’s 3.2% of the total. In a state where the margin was 9%, three percent is a massive slice of the pie. Many of those voters were traditional "country club" Republicans who couldn't bring themselves to vote for Trump but weren't ready to pull the lever for a Democrat yet.
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They stayed in the "none of the above" camp.
The Hispanic Vote: A Complex Reality
There is a common misconception that Texas would "turn blue" solely because of the growing Latino population. The Texas 2016 election results proved that it's way more complicated than a simple demographic calculation.
While Clinton did well in South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, the margins weren't as astronomical as some Democrats hoped. Trump actually performed better with Latino men in certain border counties than previous Republicans had.
It turns out, religious values, border security concerns, and energy sector jobs (oil and gas are huge in Texas, obviously) matter just as much as ethnic identity. You can't just put people in a box and assume they’ll vote for the blue team.
What Actually Happened in the RGV?
Take Starr County or Hidalgo County. These are overwhelmingly Hispanic areas. Clinton won them comfortably, sure. But the seeds of the Republican shift we saw in later elections (like 2020 and 2024) were already being sown in 2016.
The turnout was lower than expected in some of these strongholds. There was a lack of enthusiasm. While the urban centers were on fire for the Democrats, the border regions were starting to feel a bit neglected by the national platform.
The Down-Ballot Ripple Effect
Everyone looks at the President, but the Texas 2016 election results for the State House and Senate were equally fascinating.
Republicans maintained their iron grip on the state legislature, but they lost a few seats in the suburbs. It was a hint of the "Blue Wave" that would eventually hit in 2018 during the Beto O'Rourke vs. Ted Cruz Senate race.
Without the specific results of 2016, you don't get the political climate of 2018. The 2016 election was the "Proof of Concept" for Texas Democrats. It showed them that the state wasn't a lost cause—it was just an "under-organized" one.
Misconceptions and Surprises
One thing people get wrong? They think Trump was unpopular in Texas across the board.
He wasn't.
He was wildly popular in the Panhandle and East Texas. In some counties, he was outperforming the "establishment" Republicans of the past. The rural-urban divide in Texas didn't just grow; it became a canyon.
Also, people often forget that Texas had record-breaking turnout in 2016. Nearly 9 million people voted. That was an increase of over a million voters from 2012. Usually, high turnout favors Democrats, but in 2016, the "new" voters were split. Trump brought out people in rural areas who hadn't voted in years, effectively canceling out some of the Democratic gains in the cities.
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Why the Polls Were Off
If you remember the lead-up to the election, some polls actually showed Texas as a "toss-up" or within 4 points.
They were wrong.
Pollsters underestimated the "shy Trump voter" in the Texas exurbs. They also overestimated how much the "Never Trump" movement within the GOP would actually affect the final tally. At the end of the day, Texas Republicans came home. They might have complained about him in the primary (remember, Ted Cruz won the Texas primary handily), but in the general, they voted for the "R" next to the name.
Actionable Insights for the Future
Looking at the Texas 2016 election results isn't just a history lesson. It's a roadmap.
If you are analyzing Texas politics today, keep these factors in mind:
- Watch the "Donut Counties": If a Republican candidate isn't winning Collin, Denton, and Hays counties by double digits, they are in trouble statewide.
- Rural Turnout is the GOP's Lifeblood: The red wall in West Texas and the Panhandle is so thick it can absorb massive losses in Houston and Dallas, but only if those rural voters actually show up.
- Demographics aren't Destiny: Assuming a group will vote a certain way based on race or age is a losing strategy. The 2016 results showed that economic concerns (oil, cattle, trade) often override "identity politics" in the Lone Star State.
- The 10-Point Threshold: Since 2016, Texas has consistently hovered around a 5-to-9 point margin. It is no longer a +20 Republican state, but it’s also not a "swing state" yet. It’s in a political purgatory.
To truly understand where Texas is going, you have to dig into the raw precinct data from 2016. Look at how the neighborhoods in North Dallas shifted. Look at the precinct-level changes in the Houston suburbs. That is where the future of American politics is being written.
The 2016 election wasn't an ending; it was the start of a new, much more competitive era for Texas.
Next Steps for Deeper Analysis:
- Compare the 2016 results to 2020: Focus specifically on the Rio Grande Valley to see how the "Trump effect" accelerated among Latino voters.
- Audit Voter Registration Trends: Check the Texas Secretary of State's archive to see the surge in registration between 2014 and 2016; it explains the jump in raw vote totals.
- Map the "Texas Triangle": Analyze the area between Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, and San Antonio/Austin. This region contains the vast majority of the state's population and is the only reason Texas is even remotely competitive.