You know, for the longest time, the matchup between the Texans vs the Colts was about as one-sided as a conversation with a brick wall. If you grew up watching the Peyton Manning years, you remember. It wasn't really a "rivalry"—it was a scheduled beatdown. The Colts would roll into town, Manning would point at some confused safety, and suddenly Marvin Harrison was standing in the end zone. Again.
But things have changed. Fast.
If you caught the Week 18 finale on January 4, 2026, you saw exactly why this is now one of the must-watch games in the AFC South. The Texans walked away with a 38-30 victory at NRG Stadium, but the score doesn't even tell half the story. It was chaotic. It was sloppy. It was brilliant. It was basically everything we love about divisional football when the stakes are high and the players are gassed.
The January 2026 Clash: A Masterclass in Chaos
Let's talk about that last game because it perfectly encapsulates where these two franchises are right now. Houston came in hot, eventually finishing the season 12-5 and grabbing the No. 5 seed in the AFC. They were resting some starters, but the depth on that roster is legitimate.
C.J. Stroud didn't even play the whole game, yet he still managed to look like the best player on the field for the first two quarters. He hit Jayden Higgins for a touchdown and then decided to run one in himself. He’s got that "it" factor that Houston fans have been starving for since, well, forever.
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Then you have the Colts. Poor Indy. They finished 8-9, and this game was the cherry on top of a seven-game losing streak. They actually led 30-29 late in the fourth. It looked like they might play spoiler. But then Ka’imi Fairbairn—who is basically a human cheat code at this point—nailed a 43-yarder with 12 seconds left.
And the ending? Absolute madness.
Indy tried one of those desperate lateral plays on the final snap. Riley Leonard, the rookie who’s been thrown into the fire with Philip Rivers coming in and out of retirement (seriously, Philip, stay home), fumbled the ball. Tommy Togiai scooped it up and ran it back 17 yards for a touchdown as the clock hit zero. A eight-point swing on a play that didn't even matter for the spread. Vegas must have loved that one.
Why the Texans vs the Colts Actually Matters Now
For nearly two decades, the Colts led this series by a country mile. The all-time record still favors Indianapolis at 33-15-1. But if you look at the recent trend, the Texans have won five straight. Five.
This isn't your older brother's AFC South.
The Stroud Effect
C.J. Stroud has completely flipped the script. In 2024, he swept the Colts. In 2025? He swept them again. He plays with a level of calm that makes veteran pass rushers look like they're moving through molasses. He isn't just winning; he’s taking the soul out of the Indy defense.
The Quarterback Carousel in Indy
Meanwhile, the Colts are trying to find their identity. We saw Riley Leonard get the start in that January 2026 game, becoming the 11th different quarterback to start for the Colts against Houston since 2015. 11! That is a staggering amount of turnover. You can't build a rivalry when your signal-caller changes more often than the oil in your car.
They even brought 44-year-old Philip Rivers back for a three-game stint late in the 2025 season. It was nostalgic, sure, but it wasn't a long-term plan. Until Indy settles on a guy—whether it's Leonard or someone else—they’re going to be fighting an uphill battle against DeMeco Ryans and this Houston buzzsaw.
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Breaking Down the Numbers (The Real Ones)
If you’re a betting person or just a stat nerd, the numbers from the Texans vs the Colts matchups lately are wild.
- Defensive Dominance: Houston’s defense under DeMeco Ryans led the league in 2025, allowing only 16.6 points per game. They are fast, they are physical, and they haunt the dreams of AFC South offensive coordinators.
- The Ground Game: Jonathan Taylor is still a beast, don't get it twisted. He finished 2025 with 1,585 yards, second in the NFL. But in that last game against Houston? He had 14 carries for 26 yards. Houston just shut the door.
- The Kicker Factor: We have to talk about Ka’imi Fairbairn. In the 38-30 win, he hit six field goals. A career high. When your kicker is that reliable, you don't have to be perfect in the red zone. You just have to get close.
What Most Fans Get Wrong About This Matchup
A lot of people still treat the Colts like the "big brother" in this relationship because of the Manning and Luck eras. That’s a mistake. The power dynamic hasn't just shifted; it’s been demolished and rebuilt in Houston's image.
The Texans are no longer the expansion team trying to find their footing. They are a legitimate Super Bowl contender with a roster built for the long haul.
Indy, on the other hand, is in that weird "too good to tank, too bad to win" limbo. They have talent—Alec Pierce had a career-high 132 yards in that last game—but they lack the consistency to close out games against elite competition.
Actionable Insights for the Next Matchup
If you’re looking ahead to when these two meet again in the 2026 season, keep a few things in mind.
- Watch the Turnovers: Riley Leonard had three turnovers in the last game. If Indy can't protect the ball, they can't beat Houston. Period.
- The "After Contact" King: Keep an eye on Woody Marks for the Texans. In 2025, he had 319 yards after contact. He’s a nightmare to bring down and usually wears the Indy front seven out by the fourth quarter.
- Red Zone Efficiency: The Texans settled for a lot of field goals in their last win. If they start turning those into six points instead of three, these games won't even be close.
The Texans vs the Colts is no longer a game you skip on the NFL calendar. It's a barometer for the AFC. Houston is the gold standard right now, and Indy is the desperate hunter trying to find a way back to the top. It’s gritty, it’s loud, and honestly? It’s exactly what the AFC South needed.
Check the 2026 schedule as soon as it drops. You’ll want to be in the building for the next chapter.
Next Steps for Fans:
Follow the AFC South standings throughout the 2026 preseason to see if the Colts address their QB stability issues or if the Texans continue to bolster their league-leading defense. Monitor the injury reports for Jonathan Taylor, as his health remains the single biggest factor in Indy's ability to compete with Houston's defensive front.