Honestly, trying to pin down Tesla's current stock price is like trying to catch a greased pig in a thunderstorm. One minute you think you’ve got a handle on the momentum, and the next, a single post on X (formerly Twitter) sends the algorithms into a tailspin.
As of Thursday's market close on January 15, 2026, Tesla (TSLA) sat at $438.57. It’s been hovering in this weird, shaky consolidation zone for a bit now. We saw a tiny dip of about 0.14% on the day, but that doesn’t really tell the whole story. The stock opened at $441.13 and hit a high of $445.36 before losing steam.
It’s a tense time.
Why? Because everyone is looking ahead to January 28. That’s when the Q4 2025 earnings report drops. Right now, the market feels like it’s holding its breath.
The FSD Subscription Gamble
Elon Musk just threw a massive wrench into the gears. He announced that after February 14, 2026, you can’t buy Full Self-Driving (FSD) for a flat fee anymore. No more $8,000 one-and-done payments.
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From then on, it’s strictly a $99 monthly subscription.
Investors are torn on this. On one hand, recurring revenue is the holy grail of Wall Street. It makes earnings predictable. On the other hand, Tesla loses that immediate cash injection from upfront sales. Plus, people are wondering if this is a push to get more users into the ecosystem or a way to mask slowing hardware sales.
Why the $438 level matters
Technical traders are obsessed with the 50-day moving average, which is currently sitting around $445. Since the price is struggling to stay above that line, some folks are getting nervous. If it breaks below the $420 support level, things could get ugly fast. But if the earnings report on the 28th shows strong margins, $500 isn't out of the question.
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What’s Actually Driving the Price Right Now?
It isn't just about how many Model Ys were sold last year—though with 357,000 units, it was the top-selling EV in the US for 2025. It's about the "AI Story."
If you talk to analysts like Ben Kallo at Baird, they’ll tell you 2026 is the year of the Robotaxi and Optimus. The Tesla Semi is also supposed to finally hit higher-volume production this year. That’s a lot of "supposed to."
- Q4 Deliveries: Tesla delivered over 418,000 vehicles in the final quarter of 2025.
- Energy Storage: This is the sleeper hit. They deployed 14.2 GWh of energy storage last quarter. That's a record.
- The Valuation Gap: Tesla still has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio near 300. That is astronomical compared to Ford or GM.
Basically, you aren't buying a car company. You're buying a bet on a robotic future.
The Regulatory Headache
The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) is still sniffing around. They’ve been investigating FSD after reports of crashes and traffic violations involving nearly 2.9 million vehicles. Any headline about a mandatory recall usually results in an immediate 2-3% haircut for the stock.
Is it a Buy at $438?
Most of the "smart money" is cautiously optimistic but wary of the volatility. Wells Fargo recently gave it an "Underweight" rating, while others are holding out for the $548 price target set by some of the bigger bulls.
Honestly, it depends on your stomach for risk.
Tesla’s revenue is expected to hit $107.5 billion in 2026. That’s a 14% jump. If they actually hit the 32% increase in earnings per share (EPS) that some analysts are forecasting, today's price might look like a bargain by December.
Actionable Steps for Investors
If you're watching Tesla's current stock price and trying to decide your next move, don't just stare at the daily ticker.
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- Watch the Jan 28 Earnings Call: Pay attention to the "Average Selling Price" (ASP). If margins are shrinking because of price cuts, the stock will likely suffer even if delivery numbers are high.
- Monitor FSD Subscription Growth: Since the one-time buy option ends Feb 14, look for any data in the next quarter about how many people are switching to the $99/month plan.
- Check the 200-Day Moving Average: It’s way down near $260. While a drop that far seems unlikely without a global catastrophe, it shows just how much "air" is in the current rally.
- Set Limit Orders: Given how much this stock swings, trying to time the exact bottom is a fool's errand. Use limit orders to buy at prices you're comfortable with during the inevitable "Musk-induced" dips.
The next two weeks are going to be a rollercoaster. Keep your hands inside the vehicle at all times.