If you woke up and checked your portfolio today, January 19, 2026, you probably saw a sea of red where your TSLA ticker used to be. It’s been a rough ride lately. Honestly, seeing Tesla stock drop today feels a bit like deja vu for anyone who has followed Elon Musk’s car-turned-AI company for more than a week. The stock is hovering around that $437 mark, and the vibes are, well, complicated.
We’re sitting just nine days out from the big Q4 2025 earnings call on January 28, and the market is acting like a nervous wreck.
The Delivery Hangover
Basically, the biggest anchor dragging on the price right now is the delivery data we got earlier this month. Tesla confirmed they moved about 418,000 vehicles in the final quarter of 2025. On paper, that sounds like a lot of cars. But in the world of high-stakes growth stocks, it was a gut punch.
That number represents a 16% drop compared to the same period in 2024. For the full year of 2025, deliveries were down about 9% total, landing at roughly 1.64 million units. When you're valued like a tech company that’s supposed to take over the world, seeing your core product sales shrink for two years straight is a tough pill for investors to swallow.
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You've got analysts like Gordon Johnson at GLJ Research basically shouting from the rooftops that the stock is still "outrageously expensive." He’s got a price target down in the double digits, which sounds crazy until you look at the shrinking market share in China. Tesla’s slice of the Chinese New Energy Vehicle (NEV) market slipped to under 5% last year. Meanwhile, local giants like Geely are seeing their sales explode.
The FSD Pivot: Genius or Desperation?
Then there’s the whole "Full Self-Driving" (FSD) drama that really heated up this week. Musk recently dropped a bombshell on X: Tesla is killing the option to buy FSD for a one-time flat fee after February 14. From then on, it’s subscription-only.
It’s a massive shift. For years, the narrative was that FSD was an "appreciating asset." You buy it now for $8,000 (down from that peak of $12,000), and it gets more valuable as the software improves. By moving to a monthly subscription model—likely around $99—Tesla is essentially admitting it's a service, not a permanent part of the car's value.
Some people think this is a clever way to build recurring revenue. Others, kinda like Fred Lambert over at Electrek, suspect it might be a legal maneuver to dodge California’s strict false advertising laws. If you aren't "selling" a finished product but rather a month-to-month service, it's a lot harder for regulators to sue you for not delivering "unsupervised" driving.
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Why Today Felt Extra Heavy
The mood today isn't just about car sales; it’s about the NHTSA. Yesterday was supposed to be the deadline for Tesla to respond to a federal investigation into FSD defects. The government is looking into why these cars sometimes behave erratically without warning.
Tesla actually got a bit of breathing room—they were granted an extension until February 23—but the cloud of "what if" is still hanging over the stock. If the NHTSA comes back with a massive recall or hardware mandate, that $41 billion cash pile Tesla is sitting on could start looking a lot smaller.
Also, let’s be real: the "Trump Effect" is starting to settle in. While Musk and the President seem to be on good terms, the administration’s lack of interest in EV subsidies is making investors jumpy. If the federal tax credits for EVs vanish or get nerfed further in 2026, Tesla loses its biggest competitive edge in the U.S. market.
The Valuation Gap
You look at the P/E ratio and it’s still north of 290. That’s wild. Most car companies trade at a P/E of 6 or 7. To justify a 290 P/E, you have to believe—heart and soul—that the Robotaxi and the Optimus robot are going to be generating billions in pure profit very soon.
But right now, the Robotaxi is still a "maybe next year" story. We saw the demo in Austin, but we haven't seen the scale. Investors are tired of the "jam tomorrow" promises. They want to see the margins in the Q4 report. Last we checked, automotive gross margins were at 4.5-year lows. If those slip again on January 28, today’s drop might just be the opening act.
What You Should Actually Do
If you’re holding TSLA or thinking about jumping in, here’s the reality of the situation:
- Watch the $421 level. This is the 100-day moving average. If the stock closes below this, technical traders are going to freak out, and we could see a slide toward $400 or even $380 before the earnings call.
- Ignore the "buy the dip" noise for a week. With earnings so close, the volatility is going to be insane. Unless you have a ten-year time horizon, trying to time a bottom here is basically gambling.
- Focus on the Margin, not the Revenue. When the report drops on the 28th, don't look at how much money they made. Look at the Automotive Gross Margin (ex-credits). If that number is stabilizing, the stock might find a floor. If it's still dropping, the "price war" with China is winning.
- Check the FSD take rate. If Tesla shares how many people are actually subscribing to the new model, that’s your lead indicator for whether the software-as-a-service (SaaS) pivot is working.
Tesla isn't just a car company, but it's currently being punished for being a car company that's selling fewer cars. Whether the AI and robotics side can bridge that gap is the $1.4 trillion question. For now, the market is choosing to be skeptical.
Next, you might want to look at the specific delivery targets for the Model Y Refresh, as that’s the only vehicle likely to move the needle on volume in the first half of 2026.