If you’ve lived in the Twin Cities for more than a week, you know the drill. You wake up, check the window, and realize the thermometer is basically a random number generator. Honestly, the ten day forecast st paul mn right now looks like a rollercoaster that someone forgot to finish building.
We just came off a weirdly warm Monday where it hit 43 degrees at KMSP. That is 20 degrees above what we usually see. Now, the atmosphere is about to pull the rug out from under us.
The Immediate Mess: Rain, Ice, and Then the Flurries
Today, Wednesday, January 14, is actually pretty decent. It’s sunny with a high near 18°F. Cold? Yeah. But it’s that "crisp" Minnesota cold that doesn't make your face hurt immediately. Enjoy it while it lasts.
Tomorrow is where things get messy. We are looking at a high of 31°F, which sounds great until you realize there’s a 35% chance of snow showers moving in. According to the National Weather Service in Chanhassen, we are staring down a "clipper wave train."
What does that even mean?
Basically, it’s a series of fast-moving systems that just keep dropping annoying amounts of snow. We aren't talking about a Halloween Blizzard of '91 situation here. It’s more like 1 to 2 inches on Thursday into Friday, and maybe another 1 to 3 inches by Sunday. Paul Douglas, the local legend over at the Star Tribune, is calling for a "colder, snowier pattern" as we slide into the weekend.
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Breaking Down the Next Few Days
- Friday, Jan 16: High of 30°F. Snow showers are likely. The humidity is going to be high (around 84%), so it’ll feel damp and heavy.
- Saturday, Jan 17: This is the pivot point. The high drops to a brutal 6°F. Lows will be around -5°F.
- Sunday, Jan 18: High of 8°F. More snow showers.
If you were planning on a long walk at Como Park this weekend, maybe... don't? Or at least wear the heavy-duty parka.
Why the Ten Day Forecast St Paul MN Feels So Chaotic
You’ve probably heard people blaming La Niña. They aren't wrong. We are currently in a weak La Niña phase, which historically means Minnesota gets the short end of the stick. About 77% of weak La Niña years result in colder-than-normal temperatures for our area.
But there’s a catch.
Climate change is fighting back. Over the last 30 years, 70% of our Januarys have actually been warmer than the historical average. We are seeing this weird "whiplash" effect where one day it’s 40°F and raining, and three days later, the frost is deep enough to crack a pipe.
Monday, Jan 19, is looking like the bottom of the pit. We’re talking a high of only 3°F and a low of -7°F. That’s the "Arctic outbreak" the meteorologists have been warning us about all week. It’s dry, it’s clear, and it’s absolutely numbing.
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The Long-Range Outlook (Jan 20 - Jan 24)
By Tuesday, January 20, we start to see a slight recovery.
We might hit 22°F. It’ll feel like a heatwave compared to Monday. But don't go putting your shovel away just yet. The end of the 10-day window shows another dip. By Friday, Jan 23, light snow returns with a high of 17°F.
Saturday, Jan 24, looks like it could bring another sub-zero night, with lows potentially hitting -10°F.
What Most People Get Wrong About January Weather
People always think "it’s too cold to snow." That’s a myth. While it’s true that very cold air holds less moisture, those clippers thrive on the temperature contrast. When that Arctic air slams into the lingering warmth from earlier this week, it squeezes out snow like a sponge.
Also, the "Urban Heat Island" effect is real in St. Paul. If you’re living in Lowertown, you might be 3 to 5 degrees warmer than your cousins out in Woodbury or Eagan. It sounds small, but that’s often the difference between a messy slush and a solid sheet of ice on your windshield.
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Survival Tips for the Next 10 Days
Don't just look at the high temperatures. Look at the wind.
North winds are expected to stay around 11 to 16 mph for most of this stretch. That puts the wind chill in the basement.
- Check your tires now. Pressure drops when it gets this cold. You don't want a "Low Tire" light to be the reason you're late for work on a -5°F morning.
- Top off the washer fluid. The salt spray on I-94 will be brutal once those flurries start.
- Layer like a pro. Wool socks are non-negotiable this weekend.
The ten day forecast st paul mn is basically telling us that winter has finally arrived in earnest. We had a soft start, but the "clipper wave train" and the Arctic air are taking over. Keep an eye on the radar Thursday evening; that's when the commute is likely to get dicey.
Stay warm out there. It’s going to be a long crawl to February.
Actionable Next Steps:
- Check your vehicle's antifreeze levels and battery health before the temperatures drop into the single digits on Saturday.
- Update your home emergency kit with extra blankets and salt for the upcoming "clipper" snow Thursday and Friday.
- Monitor local NWS updates for specific snowfall accumulation totals as the Friday system approaches.