Missoula is doing that thing again. You know, the mid-winter stall where the sky turns into a permanent lid of gray and the temperature just... sits there. Honestly, if you’re looking at the ten day forecast Missoula is sporting right now, you might be wondering where the big Montana winter went.
The short answer? High pressure is hogging the Northern Rockies.
Basically, we’re stuck in a stagnant pattern that’s keeping the arctic air at bay but also locking in some pretty classic valley funk. If you were hoping for a massive powder dump to fix the ski season this week, the numbers say you’ll have to wait. It’s mostly a game of dodging freezing fog and waiting for the sun to poke through the "pea soup."
The Current Breakdown: Cold Mornings and Gray Afternoons
Right now, Missoula is hovering in the mid-20s at night, with daytime highs struggling to break past 33°F or 35°F. It’s not "shut down the city" cold, but it’s that damp, bone-chilling cold that makes you want to live inside a puffer jacket.
Today, Friday, January 16, we’re looking at a high of 33°F. It’s mostly cloudy, and there’s a tiny 10% chance of some stray flakes, but don't hold your breath. Tonight drops to 22°F. It's clear, which sounds nice until you realize that clear nights in January usually mean the heat is just escaping into space, leaving us with frosty windshields by 7 AM.
Looking Toward the Weekend
Saturday and Sunday (January 17-18) are actually looking like the "bright spots" of the week. We’re talking 35°F for the high both days.
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The wind is practically non-existent, coming out of the northwest at maybe 3 mph. It’s actually kind of eerie how still the valley gets during these high-pressure stints. One thing to watch for: Sunday night the mercury dips down to 16°F. That’s the coldest point in the immediate forecast. If you’ve got outdoor pipes that are finicky, that’s your "pay attention" night.
Why the Ten Day Forecast Missoula Shows So Little Snow
It feels weird to be in western Montana in mid-January and see "10% chance of snow" repeated like a broken record. Usually, we’re talking about shoveling every other morning.
The culprit is a persistent ridge of high pressure.
In a typical year, we get these "clipper" storms that roll through from the north, or moist Pacific systems that dump snow on the Bitterroots. Right now, that moisture is being pushed around us. The National Weather Service in Missoula has been pointing out that this stagnation leads to something every local dreads: the valley inversion.
The Inversion Reality Check
When that warm air sits on top of the cold air in the valley, it acts like a lid on a pot. All the woodsmoke, car exhaust, and moisture get trapped. That’s why you’ll see "patchy freezing fog" in the forecast for Monday, January 19, and Tuesday, January 20.
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While the mountains might be sunny and 40°F, we’re down here in the 32°F gloom.
Honestly, the best way to keep your sanity during a ten day forecast Missoula inversion is to drive up to Snowbowl or out toward Lolo Pass. Ten minutes of climbing and you’ll usually pop right out of the clouds into blindingly blue skies. It’s a total trip.
Mid-Week Shifts and Late-January Trends
By the time we hit Wednesday, January 21, the temperature starts a slow slide. We’re looking at a high of 27°F.
- Thursday, Jan 22: High of 30°F, partly sunny.
- Friday, Jan 23: High of 25°F. This is where it starts feeling like "real" winter again.
- Saturday, Jan 24: 27°F with a slightly higher (20%) chance of snow overnight.
The humidity is actually dropping mid-week, hitting about 44% on Thursday. That’s dry. Your skin will probably feel it before the thermometer even moves. Use the good lotion.
What Most People Get Wrong About Missoula Winters
People think because we're in Montana, we're basically the North Pole. But the Continental Divide actually protects Missoula from the truly brutal arctic fronts that hammer Great Falls or Havre.
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We’re a "Garden City" for a reason. Our winters are technically "temperate" by Montana standards.
But temperate doesn't mean easy. The lack of sun is usually the harder part. In late January, we’re only gaining about two minutes of daylight a day. By the end of this ten-day stretch on January 25, the sun will be setting around 5:28 PM. It’s a slow crawl back toward spring.
Survival Steps for the Next 10 Days
Since the ten day forecast Missoula isn't bringing a major blizzard, you don't need to panic-buy milk, but there are a few things to keep in mind.
- Watch the Black Ice: With highs around 33°F and lows in the teens, anything that melts during the day is going to be a skating rink by sunset. The side streets in the Slant Streets or near the University get notoriously slick.
- Check Your Air Quality: If the inversion holds through Tuesday as predicted, the air quality index (AQI) might dip into the "unhealthy for sensitive groups" range. Keep an eye on the Missoula City-County Health Department updates if you have asthma.
- Head for Elevation: If the gray gets to you, remember that the "35 degrees and cloudy" forecast only applies to the valley floor. The mountains are where the Vitamin D is hiding.
- Humidity Management: With humidity swinging between 72% and 44%, your house is going to feel like a desert one day and a swamp the next. Keep those humidifiers cleaned out.
By Sunday, January 25, the forecast shows a high of 34°F with a 20% chance of snow. It's a boring forecast, but in Montana, boring is usually better than "historic blizzard." Take the quiet days while you can get them; February always has a way of making up for lost time.
Stay warm, keep your headlights on in the fog, and maybe grab a coffee at a local spot to wait out the gray. We'll get through the inversion soon enough.