If you’ve spent any time at the Jersey Shore, you know the weather here has a bit of an attitude. It’s not just "warm" or "cold." It’s a specific, salty, humidity-driven experience that can change the second you cross the bridge over the Barnegat Bay. Honestly, the temperature in Toms River NJ is a topic of conversation at basically every local diner and Wawa for a reason.
The town sits in a unique spot. It’s far enough inland to bake in the summer but close enough to the water to get those weird, bone-chilling damp winters. You’re looking at a yearly swing that goes from 20°F in the dead of January to 90°F+ in July, but the raw numbers don’t tell the whole story.
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The Reality of Winter: More Than Just the Thermostat
January is, without a doubt, the toughest month here. The average high struggles to hit 42°F, and the lows hover around 25°F. But it’s the "Barnegat Bite"—that damp wind coming off the water—that makes 35°F feel like 15°F.
Just this past week, in mid-January 2026, we’ve seen exactly how unpredictable things get. A coastal low sliding offshore can mean the difference between a light dusting of snow and a full-blown mess on the Garden State Parkway. According to the National Weather Service in Mount Holly, the coastal regions like Toms River often see "warming low-level temperatures" during winter storms. This basically means we get stuck with that gross, slushy rain while people up in North Jersey are actually enjoying pretty snow.
The January Chill
The coldest day of the year usually hits right around January 30th. Historically, the mercury has dropped into the single digits, though that’s becoming a bit rarer. When it does get that cold, the river and the bay start to ice over near the docks. It looks beautiful, but local fire officials are constantly warning people to stay off the ice because the currents make it dangerously thin.
Spring: The Great Ocean Tug-of-War
April and May are the "don't put your coat away yet" months. You’ll have a Tuesday where it’s 72°F and everyone is at Huddy Park thinking summer is here. Then Wednesday hits. The wind shifts to the east, coming off the Atlantic (which is still a freezing 45°F), and the temperature in Toms River NJ drops 20 degrees in an hour.
- March: Average highs of 52°F. Still feels like winter.
- April: The "windiest month" average of 16 mph. It’s great for the sailors but keeps things chilly.
- May: Finally, we hit the 70s consistently. This is when the dew point starts to climb, and you lose that crisp spring air.
Summer Heat and That Famous Jersey Humidity
If you think 85°F sounds reasonable for July, you’ve never felt Jersey humidity. By mid-July, the dew point often climbs above 65°F. That’s the threshold where sweat stops evaporating and you just feel... sticky.
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July is the hottest month, with average highs of 85°F, but it's the nights that get you. The "mean minimum" temperature has been rising over the last few decades. In many recent years, the temperature doesn't even drop below 70°F at night. This is partly due to the "urban heat island" effect as the town has grown, but also just the general warming trend Dave Robinson, the State Climatologist, has been tracking for years.
Why the Bay Matters
The Barnegat Bay acts like a giant heat sink. In early June, it keeps the town cooler than somewhere like Trenton or Philly. But by August, the bay water is 78°F or 80°F. It stops providing that cooling relief and instead just adds more moisture to the air.
The Fall Sweet Spot
Ask any local: September and October are the best months in Toms River. Hands down.
The "hot season" officially ends around September 15th. The sweltering humidity breaks, and you get these clear, "mostly clear" skies about 63% of the time. The water is still warm enough for a beach day at Seaside Park, but the air is crisp.
Highs and Lows: The Record Books
Toms River isn't usually breaking national records, but it holds its own.
- Highest Temp Recorded: We've seen it hit over 100°F during extreme heat waves, like the ones in July 2020.
- Lowest Temp Recorded: It can dive well below zero, though -5°F is a rare, once-in-a-decade event.
- Precipitation: July is actually the wettest month on average (about 3.74 inches), mostly due to those massive afternoon thunderstorms that roll in from the west and dump rain for 20 minutes before the sun comes back out.
Microclimates in Ocean County
It’s kinda wild how much it varies within the town limits. If you’re in Silverton or near the Toms River Country Club, you’re getting that direct water influence. Head out toward the border of Manchester or Jackson (The Pine Barrens side), and the temperature in Toms River NJ can be 5 degrees different. The sandy soil in the Pines loses heat way faster at night than the paved-over areas near the mall.
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Dealing with the Toms River Climate
If you're moving here or just visiting, you need a strategy for the weather. It's not just about the temperature; it's about the moisture and the wind.
- Check the Dew Point: Ignore the "Feels Like" temp for a second and look at the dew point. Anything over 65°F means you're going to be miserable doing yard work.
- The "Bay Breeze" Rule: If you're planning a boat day, remember that the air over the water is almost always 10 degrees cooler in May and 10 degrees warmer in October.
- Winter Prep: Since the humidity stays high even in winter, the "dry cold" of the Midwest doesn't happen here. It’s a "damp cold" that gets into your joints. Layering is basically a local religion.
Honestly, the weather here is why the landscape is so green and why we have such great summers. It’s a trade-off. You deal with the slushy Januaries to get those perfect 76°F September afternoons where the air smells like salt and pine needles.
If you're planning an event or just trying to figure out when to plant your garden, keep an eye on the Rutgers NJ Weather and Climate Network. They have a station nearby that gives the most accurate local data compared to the generic "Philadelphia" reports you see on TV.
Next Steps for Staying Weather-Wise in Toms River:
- Install a localized weather app: Use one that pulls from the KMCRR (Monmouth Executive Airport) or local Ocean County sensors rather than Newark or Philly.
- Check the Barnegat Bay water temp: Use the USGS real-time gauges if you’re planning on being on the water; it tells you more about how the air will feel than the land-based sensors.
- Monitor the Drought Warning status: As of late 2025/early 2026, the NJDEP has been watching precipitation deficits closely, so keep an eye on local watering restrictions if the summer heat stays dry.