Honestly, if you stepped outside in Buffalo this morning, you probably thought, "Hey, this isn't so bad."
The temperature in Buffalo New York today is hovering right around 31°F as we settle into the evening hours of Saturday, January 17, 2026. It's that classic Western New York winter baseline. Not bone-chillingly cold yet, but just enough to keep the slush firm and the air crisp.
But don't let that 31-degree reading fool you.
Buffalo is currently the atmospheric equivalent of a suspense thriller. While the mercury hit a high of 36°F earlier today, the real story isn't the number on the thermometer—it’s the wind and the looming Arctic monster currently waking up over Lake Erie.
The numbers you actually need to know right now
If you're looking at the raw data, the current temperature is 31°F, but it feels like 20°F.
That's thanks to a persistent 20 mph wind coming straight out of the west. Humidity is sitting at 61%, and the UV index is a big fat zero, which shouldn't surprise anyone who has lived through a Buffalo January. We haven't seen the sun in what feels like decades, right?
📖 Related: Weather Forecast Lockport NY: Why Today’s Snow Isn’t Just Hype
Tonight, we're looking at a low of 23°F.
- Current Temp: 31°F
- Wind Chill: 20°F
- Wind Speed: 20 mph (West)
- Tonight's Low: 23°F
- Precipitation: Light snow showers (31% chance tonight, but sticking around)
The National Weather Service (NWS) has been busy today. We’ve already seen a Snow Squall Warning clip the region earlier this afternoon, and a Code Blue has been issued for the city. When the city calls a Code Blue, it means the conditions are officially dangerous for anyone without shelter. It’s a somber reminder that "mild" by Buffalo standards is still life-threatening without the right gear.
Why everyone is talking about Sunday and Monday
Basically, today is the "easy" day.
The lake temperature off Buffalo is currently 33°F. Why does that matter? Because there is a massive Arctic airmass moving in that's going to drop temperatures into the teens and single digits by early next week. When that -15°C air at the 850mb level hits that relatively "warm" 33-degree lake water, it’s like throwing water into a deep fryer.
The result? A massive lake effect snow machine.
👉 See also: Economics Related News Articles: What the 2026 Headlines Actually Mean for Your Wallet
We are currently under a Winter Storm Watch that transitions into a full-blown Winter Storm Warning starting Monday morning. While the temperature in Buffalo New York today feels manageable, we are looking at a forecast that includes:
- Wind chills between -5°F and -15°F by Monday night.
- Snowfall rates of 2 inches per hour.
- Total accumulations that could easily top 20 inches in the Southtowns.
The "Feels Like" factor is about to plummet
Temperature is a liar in Buffalo.
You can have a 30-degree day that feels like a spring afternoon if the air is still. But today, that 20 mph wind is just a preview. By Monday and Tuesday, we're looking at gusts up to 45 or 50 mph.
When you combine a 20°F ambient temperature with a 45 mph wind, you aren't just cold; you're looking at frostbite in under 30 minutes. The NWS is already warning of "whiteout conditions" and "treacherous travel." If you've lived here long enough, you know the drill: check the generator, stock up on Wegmans essentials, and make sure the snowblower actually starts.
Historical context: Is today normal?
Sorta. The average high for January 17th in Buffalo is about 31.8°F, so today's high of 36°F was actually slightly above the norm.
✨ Don't miss: Why a Man Hits Girl for Bullying Incidents Go Viral and What They Reveal About Our Breaking Point
We’ve seen much weirder. Back in 1952, it hit a record 56°F on this date. On the flip side, in 1982, the city bottomed out at a horrific -16°F. So, sitting at 31°F right now feels like a fairly balanced middle ground. It’s the "Goldilocks" of Buffalo winter—not too hot, not too cold, just right for a heavy coat and a decent pair of boots.
What you should do before the mercury drops further
Since the temperature in Buffalo New York today is the last "warm" reading we’re going to see for a while, use this evening to prep.
The transition from the current 31°F to the sub-zero wind chills expected by Monday night is going to be jarring. This isn't just about comfort; it's about the fact that the lake is wide open and ready to dump.
- Clear your vents: With snow showers already starting and heavy snow coming, make sure your furnace and dryer vents stay clear of drifts.
- Check your neighbors: With the Code Blue in effect, the 31°F temp tonight is cold enough to be a serious problem for the elderly or vulnerable.
- Gas up now: Don't be the person waiting in a line at the Delta Sonic when the squalls are whiteout-level on Monday morning.
- Drip the pipes: If you're in one of the older Victorians in Elmwood Village or North Buffalo, start thinking about those drafty spots before the deep freeze hits Tuesday.
The bottom line is that the temperature in Buffalo New York today is just the opening act. It’s 31°F, it’s snowing lightly, and the wind is kicking up. Enjoy the "warmth" while it lasts, because by the time Martin Luther King Jr. Day rolls around on Monday, we’re going to be looking at a completely different landscape.
Stay inside, stay warm, and keep an eye on that lake band—it's coming for us.