If you’ve spent any time looking at the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX), you know Telstra is basically the "comfort food" of the Aussie share market. It’s reliable, it’s always there, and it’s usually paying you to stick around. But honestly, looking at the telstra corporation limited share price over the last few years is enough to give anyone a bit of a headache.
Is it a growth stock? No. Is it a "dinosaur" about to be disrupted? Also no.
The reality is way more nuanced. As of early 2026, Telstra (ASX: TLS) is sitting in this weird, fascinating middle ground. We’re seeing a company that has finally finished its massive "T25" transformation and is now pivoting toward something called "Connected Future 30." But if you’re just looking at the ticker on your phone, you’re missing the actual story of why the price moves the way it does.
The 2025 "Pop" and the Reality of 2026
Last year was actually pretty great for Telstra shareholders. While the broader ASX 200 was kind of limping along with a 6.25% gain, Telstra shares shot up by about 21% in 2025. People were stoked.
Why? Because the company finally showed it could grow its "underlying" profit without needing a bunch of accounting magic. They reported a massive 31% jump in statutory net profit—reaching $2.34 billion—partly because they didn't have to deal with the huge one-off restructuring costs that haunted them in 2024.
But here’s the thing about the telstra corporation limited share price today.
We’ve entered a phase of "disciplined growth." The company is currently trading around the $4.80 mark, and analysts are split. Some, like the folks over at Morningstar, have seen a fair value closer to $4.90 or $5.00, while others think it’s already priced for perfection.
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It's All About the Mobiles (and the Price Hikes)
If you want to understand Telstra’s value, forget about landlines. Landlines are dead. It’s all about the mobile division. It is the absolute engine room of this business.
In the 2025 financial year, mobile service revenue grew by about 3.5%. That doesn't sound like much until you realize they did it by basically telling everyone, "Hey, your monthly plan is going up by $3 to $5."
And guess what? People stayed.
That "pricing power" is exactly what institutional investors look for. When Telstra can raise prices in an inflationary environment and not lose a massive chunk of customers to Optus or TPG, the share price gets a floor put under it. They’ve also been dumping a ton of cash—an extra $800 million over four years—into making their 5G network faster and more "AI-enabled."
- 95% 5G Population Coverage: They are miles ahead of the competition here.
- Average Revenue Per User (ARPU): This is climbing because we’re all addicted to data.
- Infrastructure: They own the "pipes" through InfraCo, which is basically a gold mine in a world where everyone needs more bandwidth for AI.
The Dividend Trap vs. The Dividend Reality
Most people buy Telstra for the dividends. Period.
Right now, the yield is hovering around 3.9% to 4%. If you include those lovely franking credits, it looks even better. In FY25, they bumped the final dividend to 9.5 cents, bringing the total for the year to 19 cents.
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Some analysts, like those at Goldman Sachs, have been whisper-quiet about the possibility of dividends hitting 20 cents or even higher by 2027. But you’ve gotta be careful. If the telstra corporation limited share price climbs too high, that yield starts to look a bit skinny compared to what you can get in a high-interest savings account or a term deposit.
"Time is the friend of the wonderful business, and the enemy of a business with poor economics."
That’s a classic line often applied to Telstra. For a decade, Telstra had "poor economics" because of the NBN rollout. Now? The NBN pain is mostly in the rearview mirror.
What’s Actually Moving the Needle Right Now?
It’s not just about how many people have a Telstra SIM card. There are three big catalysts that are keeping the market on its toes in 2026:
- The $1 Billion Buyback: Telstra has been actively buying back its own shares. When a company does this, it reduces the total number of shares on the market, which (theoretically) makes each remaining share more valuable. It’s a huge vote of confidence from CEO Vicki Brady.
- The "Optus Factor": Let’s be real—Optus has had a rough couple of years with outages and data breaches. Telstra has been the primary beneficiary of that reputational damage. If Optus manages to stage a massive comeback or starts a price war, Telstra’s margins might feel the squeeze.
- The AI Infrastructure Play: This is the "hidden" part of the telstra corporation limited share price story. Telstra isn't just a phone company anymore; they are an infrastructure company. They are building an "Intercity Fibre Network" (over 4,400km already in the ground) specifically designed to handle the massive data loads required by AI and cloud computing.
The Risks: What Could Go Wrong?
It’s not all sunshine and franking credits.
Inflation is still a pest. It drives up the cost of labor and electricity, which hits Telstra's bottom line. They’ve had to cut thousands of jobs (over 3,200 roles in 2025) just to keep their margins steady.
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Also, TPG and Optus aren't just sitting there. They’ve entered into regional network-sharing agreements to try and close the gap on Telstra’s coverage. If they successfully bridge that gap, Telstra loses its "best network" premium, which is the only reason many people pay their higher prices.
How to Look at Telstra in Your Portfolio
If you’re holding Telstra, you’re likely looking for a "defensive" play. It’s a stock that generally doesn't drop 50% overnight because someone tweeted something weird. It’s a utility.
But you shouldn't expect it to double in value in six months. That’s not what this is. The telstra corporation limited share price is a play on the digitalization of Australia. As long as we keep using more data and as long as Telstra keeps its network at the top of the pile, the company remains a cash-flow machine.
Actionable Insights for Shareholders
- Watch the Interim Results: The half-year results (usually in February) are the first real indicator of whether those mobile price hikes are sticking.
- Keep an eye on the RBA: Since Telstra is often viewed as a "bond proxy," its share price can be sensitive to interest rate changes. When rates go down, Telstra often goes up.
- Monitor the Buyback Progress: If the company finishes its $1 billion buyback ahead of schedule, look for what they do with the extra cash next—maybe a special dividend?
Basically, Telstra is no longer the "dying giant" people claimed it was five years ago. It’s leaner, it’s more focused on infrastructure, and it’s finally starting to act like a tech leader rather than just a legacy utility. Just don't expect it to be a smooth ride every single day.
To keep a pulse on your investment, set up alerts for "Intercity Fibre Network" updates and "ARPU growth" in their quarterly statements. These are the boring-sounding metrics that actually determine whether the telstra corporation limited share price stays at these levels or finally breaks through its long-term resistance. Don't just watch the daily fluctuations; focus on the underlying cash flow and the 5G leadership gap. That’s where the real value lives.