Manhattan, Kansas, is a weird place to play football. It’s windy, the crowd is right on top of you, and for some reason, if you're wearing TCU purple, everything that can go wrong usually does. Honestly, watching the TCU vs Kansas State game on October 11, 2025, felt like a fever dream for Horned Frog fans.
TCU rolled into Bill Snyder Family Stadium with a decent 4-2 record, looking like a team that could actually make some noise in the Big 12. Then the game started. By the time the fourth quarter rolled around, the Frogs had surrendered two defensive touchdowns and were staring at a 41-28 loss. It wasn't just a loss; it was a continuation of a trend that’s becoming a real problem for Sonny Dykes.
The Manhattan Curse and the 2025 Breakdown
You've probably heard analysts talk about "finding a way to win." Well, TCU keeps finding spectacular ways to lose when they visit the Wildcats. This latest matchup was the fourth consecutive time TCU has left Manhattan with a loss. They haven’t won there since 2017.
The box score tells a story of "empty stats." Josh Hoover, the TCU quarterback, actually put up massive numbers: 376 passing yards and three touchdowns. On paper, that looks like an All-American performance. But the reality? Two of his passes ended up in the hands of Kansas State defenders, including a back-breaking pick-six by Des Purnell.
Why the 41-28 Scoreboard Lied
If you just saw the final score, you might think it was a close-ish game. It wasn't. K-State led 28-7 late in the third quarter. TCU’s offense looked totally out of sorts for the middle two quarters.
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- The Fumble That Wasn't: A backwards pass to freshman Ed Small was ruled a lateral. It hit the turf, and Wesley Fair scooped it for a 15-yard score.
- The Purnell Show: Des Purnell didn't just have an interception; he had a sack and a 25-yard return for a touchdown that basically ended the competitive phase of the game.
- Garrett Oakley’s Night: K-State’s tight end was a nightmare for the TCU secondary, hauling in two touchdowns from Avery Johnson.
Avery Johnson is the Real Deal
We need to talk about Avery Johnson. He isn't the kind of quarterback who's going to throw for 500 yards, but he’s exactly what Chris Klieman needs. He went 16-of-26 for 198 yards and three touchdowns. More importantly, he didn't turn the ball over once.
While Hoover was out there slinging it into tight windows and hoping for the best, Johnson was methodical. He used his legs when he had to—grinding out 29 yards on 13 carries—but it was his connection with Oakley and Jerand Bradley that kept the chains moving. K-State dominated the time of possession, holding the ball for over 36 minutes. That’s how you kill a high-tempo offense like TCU’s. You just keep them on the sideline until they get cold.
The Ground Game Disparity
K-State didn't even have their star rusher Dylan Edwards for this one. Didn't matter. Joe Jackson stepped in and carried the rock 27 times for 110 yards. TCU, meanwhile, could only muster 72 rushing yards as a team. You can't be one-dimensional in the Big 12, especially not in a stadium where the wind can turn a deep ball into a turnover in a heartbeat.
A Look at the All-Time Series
The TCU vs Kansas State rivalry is one of those that feels older than it is because of how intense the games have been since TCU joined the Big 12. After the 2025 meeting, Kansas State holds a significant edge in the recent history.
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Historically, the series is actually closer than you might think, but the Wildcats have won six of the last seven. The only real bright spot for TCU in recent years was that 2022 regular-season win during their Cinderella run to the National Championship. But even that year, K-State got the last laugh by beating them in the Big 12 Championship game in overtime.
Beyond the Gridiron: The 2026 Basketball Shock
It's not just football where these two schools are trying to kill each other's seasons. If you follow Big 12 hoops, you saw what happened in early January 2026.
While K-State and TCU were battling for position in the middle of the pack, the broader conference context saw some wild results. TCU actually had a 16-point lead against Kansas (the Jayhawks, not the Wildcats) recently and blew it in overtime. It's a recurring theme: TCU gets a lead, things get weird, and the opponent from Kansas finds a way to steal it.
In the women's game, the script flipped a bit. Back in late 2025, the TCU women absolutely dismantled Kansas State 77-55. Olivia Miles and the Frogs showed a level of defensive intensity that the football team could honestly learn a thing or two from.
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Actionable Insights for the Next Matchup
If you’re a bettor or just a die-hard fan looking toward the next TCU vs Kansas State clash, keep these three things in mind:
- Watch the Turnover Margin: Under Sonny Dykes, TCU is 6-11 when they lose the turnover battle. In their last several losses to K-State, they’ve been at least -2 in turnovers.
- The "Manhattan Factor": Unless the game is in Fort Worth, lean toward the Wildcats. The home-field advantage at Bill Snyder Family Stadium is statistically one of the most consistent in the conference.
- Tight End Matchups: K-State loves using their tight ends (like Oakley) to exploit TCU’s tendency to play aggressive nickel coverage. If the Frogs don't fix their safety play, this will happen every year.
The next time these two meet, don't get blinded by the offensive "explosiveness" of TCU. Look at the trenches. Look at who’s taking care of the ball. Until the Frogs prove they can play a clean game in the Little Apple, the Wildcats are going to keep owning this matchup.
To stay ahead of the next game, keep an eye on the injury reports regarding TCU's secondary, as their inability to cover the middle of the field has been the deciding factor in three of the last four meetings. You should also track the development of Jeremy Payne, who showed flashes of being the goal-line back TCU desperately needs to balance out Hoover’s passing attack.