Honestly, if you’ve spent any time looking at energy infrastructure, you know that TC Energy (TRP) is basically the "slow and steady" heavyweight of the Canadian and U.S. pipeline world. It’s the kind of company people buy when they want to sleep at night. But lately, the TC Energy stock price has been doing a bit more than just sitting there collecting dust.
As of mid-January 2026, the stock is hovering around the $54.94 mark on the NYSE. It recently hit an all-time high of $55.93 earlier this month, which is a pretty big deal for a company that spent years under the shadow of massive debt and project delays. You've probably heard about the Coastal GasLink headaches or the multi-billion dollar budget overruns in the past. Well, things are finally looking... different.
The South Bow Split: What Actually Changed?
One of the biggest reasons the TC Energy stock price is acting like a new person is the 2024 spinoff of its liquids business. Basically, they took their oil pipelines, called them South Bow (SOBO), and sent them packing.
Why? Because the market likes "pure plays."
Before the split, TC Energy was a bit of a messy junk drawer. Now, it's a focused natural gas and power machine. If you held shares during the split, you got 0.2 shares of South Bow for every TRP share you owned. This left TC Energy as a leaner, more "green-leaning" company focused on gas-to-power and nuclear (through their stake in Bruce Power).
The market has rewarded this. By ditching the oil segment, they've simplified the story for investors. It’s easier to value a gas pipeline utility than a hybrid monster.
💡 You might also like: AOL CEO Tim Armstrong: What Most People Get Wrong About the Comeback King
Digging Into the Numbers: Dividends and EBITDA
Let's talk about the dividend, because that’s why 90% of people look at this stock anyway. TC Energy recently declared a quarterly dividend of $0.85 per share. That works out to about $3.40 annually.
At the current TC Energy stock price, you’re looking at a yield of roughly 4.5% to 4.6%.
Is it safe?
Management thinks so. They’ve actually hiked the dividend for 25 years straight. That’s a quarter-century of "here's your cash, thanks for staying." For 2026, they are projecting a comparable EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, etc.) of $11.6 to $11.8 billion. That’s a solid 6% to 8% growth over last year.
- 2025 EBITDA: ~$10.9 billion
- 2026 Target: ~$11.7 billion
- Long-term Goal: 5-7% annual growth through 2028
The company has been knocking it out of the park with project execution lately. In 2025, they placed about $8.5 billion worth of projects into service—and they did it about 15% under budget. If you follow this industry, you know "under budget" is basically a miracle.
📖 Related: Wall Street Lays an Egg: The Truth About the Most Famous Headline in History
Why Some People Are Still Skeptical
It’s not all sunshine and rising charts. Some analysts, including those at Simply Wall St, have raised eyebrows at the valuation. They argue that based on free cash flow models, the stock might be trading significantly above its "fair value."
The debt is the elephant in the room. We're talking about roughly $60 billion in net debt. While they’ve been selling off assets (like a stake in the NGTL system) to pay it down, the interest rates in 2025 and early 2026 haven't exactly been doing them any favors. If rates stay higher for longer, that massive pile of debt becomes more expensive to carry.
Also, earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 actually trended a bit lower than 2024. That’s mostly due to the costs of building out new stuff and the "noise" from the spinoff.
Data Centers and the AI Tailwinds
Here’s the surprising part: TC Energy is becoming an "AI play" in a very roundabout way.
Every time you hear about a massive new data center, remember that those things need power. A lot of it. TC Energy’s Northwoods project and several expansions on their Columbia Gas system are specifically designed to feed natural gas-fired power plants that serve data centers in the U.S. Midwest and Virginia.
👉 See also: 121 GBP to USD: Why Your Bank Is Probably Ripping You Off
Basically, the tech boom needs the "boring" pipeline boom to keep the lights on.
What Should You Do Next?
If you’re watching the TC Energy stock price and wondering if you missed the boat, keep an eye on these specific triggers over the next few months:
- February 13, 2026: This is the next big earnings report. Watch the "Comparable EPS." If they beat expectations here, it could push the stock toward that $60 ceiling analysts have been talking about.
- Asset Sales: Watch for news on further minority interest sales. Every billion they shave off the debt is a win for the share price.
- Interest Rate Shifts: If the Fed or the Bank of Canada hints at more cuts, utility-like stocks like TRP usually jump.
Check your portfolio's exposure to the energy sector. If you’re already heavy on oil producers, TRP offers a nice "regulated" hedge. If you're looking for a quick 20% gain in a month, this probably isn't the stock for you. It’s a marathon runner, not a sprinter.
The move now is to look at the debt-to-EBITDA ratio when the February report drops. If that number keeps shrinking, the long-term case for holding TRP gets a lot stronger.