Honestly, if you’re looking at your phone right now and seeing a simple little sun icon for the taos nm weather forecast, you’re only getting about half the story. Taos isn't just a town; it’s a vertical puzzle. One minute you’re standing in the Plaza under a crisp, 36°F sky, and the next, you’re up at the Ski Valley where the wind is whipping at 15 mph and the "feels like" temp is hovering in the single digits.
It’s January 17, 2026. The high today in town is hitting around 36°F, but that number is deceptive.
The Yo-Yo Effect
The National Weather Service out of Albuquerque just issued a discussion about "yo-yo" temperatures across the region. Basically, we’ve got these backdoor cold fronts sliding in from the plains, hitting the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, and just... hanging out.
Tonight, the temperature is going to tank. We're looking at a low of 20°F in town, but if you're up in the canyon or near the Pueblo, it’ll feel much sharper. The dewpoints are in the single digits. That means the air is bone-dry. When the sun goes down in the high desert, there’s no moisture to hold the heat. It just escapes into space.
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Tomorrow, Sunday, January 18, things take a weird turn. The high jumps up to 45°F. That’s a 25-degree swing in less than 24 hours. You’ve gotta dress like an onion—layers are the only way to survive without losing your mind.
What’s Happening at the Mountain?
If you’re here to ski, the taos nm weather forecast for the mountain is its own beast. Right now, the base depth at Taos Ski Valley is sitting at 25 inches. Not exactly a record-breaker, but the surface is mostly packed powder.
Current conditions at the top of Lift 7 are showing a chilly 13°F.
Wind is the real enemy today.
We’re seeing northwest gusts around 16 mph in town, but up on the ridges, the NWS is calling for gusts between 30 and 35 mph. If you’re planning on hitting the ridge, check the lift status first. High winds often mean the upper mountain goes on standby.
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- Today (Jan 17): Sunny, High 36°F, Low 20°F. Wind 16 mph NW.
- Tomorrow (Jan 18): Sunny, High 45°F, Low 21°F. Wind 9 mph W.
- Monday (Jan 19): Sunny, High 39°F, Low 19°F.
Notice that dip on Monday? That’s another one of those "backdoor" fronts. It’s a constant battle between the warm air trying to creep in from the west and the cold stuff pushing over the mountains from the east.
The Snow Drought (For Now)
We’re in a bit of a dry spell. The precipitation chance is basically zero percent for the next few days. According to the latest Area Forecast Discussion, we aren't likely to see any real moisture until at least next Friday, January 23, or possibly the following weekend.
There’s a Pacific low-pressure system sitting off the coast of California. Forecasters are watching it like hawks. If it shifts east fast enough, we might get a "frozen mix" by Saturday, January 24. But honestly? Models are all over the place. One says snowstorm, the other says a few stray clouds.
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Expert Tips for the High Desert
People forget that Taos is at 6,967 feet. The Ski Valley base is at 9,207 feet. At this altitude, the UV index is a 2 or 3 even when it’s cold. You will get burned.
Also, the humidity is sitting at 32%. You’re basically a human raisin. Drink twice the water you think you need. If you start getting a headache, it’s not just the altitude; it’s dehydration.
Fire crews are actually using this dry, cold window to do some work. On the Carson National Forest, they’ve been pile burning near Capulin Peak and Taos Canyon. If you see smoke, don't panic—it’s likely a prescribed burn. They’re taking advantage of the "good ventilation" rates (that’s weather-speak for the wind blowing the smoke away from town) to clear out 134 acres of thinning piles.
Your Action Plan
If you are heading out in the next 48 hours:
- Check the wind: Anything over 20 mph in the valley means it's a gale on the peaks.
- Hydrate now: Don't wait until you're thirsty.
- Sunscreen: Even on a 36°F day. Especially on a 36°F day.
- Watch the Friday shift: Keep an eye on the forecast for January 23. That Pacific system could turn a sunny trip into a powder day (or a slushy mess) very quickly.
Basically, enjoy the sun while it's here, but keep your heavy coat in the trunk. This is Taos. The weather changes faster than the prices at a tourist shop.