Honestly, if you just stepped off a plane at TPA thinking you’d be basking in 80-degree sunshine immediately, you’re in for a bit of a shock. It is chilly. Like, "actually need a real coat" chilly. Today, January 16, 2026, we are waking up to a crisp 48°F under a bright sun, but don't let the blue skies fool you. There is a Freeze Warning in effect until 9:00 AM for parts of Hillsborough and the surrounding counties.
Basically, the tampa florida weather forecast 14 day is looking like a rollercoaster. We are currently trapped in a cold snap that has temperatures dipping as low as 36°F tonight. That’s not "Florida cold"—that’s just cold.
The Immediate Outlook: Fronts and Flakes?
You’ve probably heard the rumors. People are talking about "Florida flakes." While the chance of actual snow in Tampa is basically zero (sorry to the kids hoping for a snow day), there’s a real winter storm pushing through the Southeast this weekend.
Here is what the next few days look like on the ground:
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- Saturday, Jan 17: We bounce back. A high of 70°F feels much more like the vacation weather you paid for. It’ll be mostly sunny, though clouds will start creeping in by evening.
- Sunday, Jan 18: This is the "messy" day. We’re looking at a 65% chance of light rain during the day with a high of 60°F. The wind is going to kick up too, hitting 17 mph from the north.
- Monday, Jan 19 (MLK Day): Back to the bright stuff, but it stays cool. High of 57°F and a low of 38°F.
The National Weather Service is calling this a "prolonged and significant cooldown." Usually, we get one day of cold and then it's back to shorts. Not this time. This is a reinforcing shot of Arctic air that is sticking around longer than a bad relative.
Breaking Down the tampa florida weather forecast 14 day
If you are planning your life two weeks out, things do eventually get better. You just have to survive the first week. We are in a weak La Niña pattern right now. Typically, that means Florida stays warmer and drier, but January 2026 is throwing us a curveball.
Week One: The Struggle
Expect a slow climb. By Wednesday, Jan 21, we should see 70°F again, but the nights remain stubborn in the 40s. Thursday brings another round of light rain (about a 45% chance) which keeps the humidity high at 78%. It’s that damp cold that gets into your bones.
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Week Two: The Return of the Sun
This is where the tampa florida weather forecast 14 day finally starts to look like a postcard again.
- Friday, Jan 23: High of 72°F.
- Saturday, Jan 24: We hit 75°F—finally, pool weather for the brave.
- The Final Stretch: Forecast models are showing a steady trend into the upper 70s and even hitting 81°F by the following Monday.
What Most People Get Wrong About Tampa Winters
Everyone thinks Florida is a tropical paradise year-round. It's not. Tampa is technically humid subtropical. We get these cold fronts that "pipe" air directly from Canada down the center of the peninsula.
Kinda weirdly, the sea temperature right now is sitting around 18°C (64°F). If you try to jump in the Gulf at Clearwater Beach today, you’re going to experience a very immediate biological regret.
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Survival Guide for the Next 14 Days
If you’re living through this 14-day window, stop looking for your flip-flops for a minute.
- Layers are everything. You’ll need a heavy sweater at 7:00 AM and a T-shirt by 2:00 PM.
- Watch the wind. A 17 mph wind from the North on Sunday will make 60°F feel like 50°F.
- Check the plants. If you have hibiscus or palms in pots, bring 'em in tonight. 36°F is the danger zone for tropicals.
While the "Southern snow" talk is mostly for the Panhandle, the wind chills in Tampa this morning are the real story. We've seen local shelters opening up because this isn't our normal "light jacket" weather.
Practical Next Steps:
Keep an eye on the Sunday rain totals. If that low-pressure system shifts even fifty miles, those "light showers" could turn into a washout. For now, plan your outdoor activities for Saturday afternoon or wait until the following weekend when the 80s finally make their comeback. Use this week for indoor stuff—visit the Florida Aquarium or the Dali Museum while the Arctic air does its thing.