If you want to understand the pure, unadulterated chaos of the NFC South, you just have to look at the mess that is Tampa Bay vs New Orleans. It isn't just a football game. It's a twice-yearly exercise in frustration, unexpected heroics, and defensive coordinators losing their minds.
Honestly, the 2025 season felt like a fever dream for both fanbases. You had the Buccaneers, sitting pretty at 6-2 at one point, looking like they’d waltz to a fifth straight division title. Then you had the Saints, who basically spent the first half of the year in a tailspin before deciding to play spoiler in the most annoying way possible.
The Week 14 Disaster That Changed Everything
Most people expected the Week 14 matchup in December 2025 to be a formality. Tampa Bay was 7-5. New Orleans was a dismal 2-10. It was supposed to be a "get right" game for Baker Mayfield and company at Raymond James Stadium.
Instead, it rained.
And in that rain, a rookie named Tyler Shough—a second-round pick out of Louisville—decided he was Mike Vick for an afternoon. He didn't even tear them apart through the air; he did it with his legs. Shough ripped off a 34-yard touchdown run in the third quarter that left the Bucs' secondary looking at each other in confusion. Then he added a 13-yard scramble in the fourth to seal a 24-20 upset.
It was ugly. The Bucs went 3-of-12 on third downs. You can’t win games like that, especially when Todd Bowles is screaming about "owning what we did" in the post-game presser. That single loss to a "bad" Saints team is exactly why the division race stayed alive until the final seconds of the season.
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Why This Rivalry Is So Weirdly Personal
You’ve got to remember where this started. For a long time, the Saints absolutely owned the Buccaneers. From 2011 to 2014, they won seven straight. Then Tom Brady showed up in Tampa, and things got... heated.
Remember the 2017 sideline brawl? Mike Evans leveling Marshon Lattimore? That wasn't an isolated incident. These teams genuinely don't like each other. Even when the Saints were struggling in 2025, they played the Bucs like it was the Super Bowl.
There’s a weird psychological thing happening here.
- The Turnover Factor: As Todd Bowles says, "Any time we play them, it’s always who wins the turnover battle."
- The Superdome Factor: Tampa actually went into New Orleans in Week 8 and dismantled them 23-3. They forced four turnovers.
- The Spoiler Mentality: The Saints knew they weren't winning a ring in 2025, so they shifted their entire focus to making sure Tampa Bay didn't have a smooth ride either.
Mayfield vs. The Saints' Defense
Baker Mayfield had a statistically solid 2025. He threw for 3,693 yards and 26 touchdowns. But against New Orleans? It was like he was playing a different sport. In that rain-soaked Week 14 loss, he was held to just 144 yards.
The Saints' defense, led by guys like Carl Granderson and Alontae Taylor, has a way of baiting Mayfield into "hero ball." Taylor picked him off in critical moments, and the pressure-to-sack rate was through the roof.
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It’s interesting to look at the contrast.
In the Week 8 win, Mayfield looked like an MVP candidate. He was efficient, moving the chains with Chris Otton and Bucky Irving. But when the pressure mounting in the December rematch, the offense froze. They were 2-of-7 on fourth downs. That’s not just bad luck; that’s a defense knowing exactly what’s coming.
The Todd Bowles and Kellen Moore Chess Match
By 2025, the Saints had moved on to Kellen Moore as head coach. Moore brought a much more aggressive, "volatility-first" approach. This clashed perfectly with Todd Bowles' heavy-blitz defensive identity.
In their first meeting of 2025, Bowles won. He sent the house, forced Spencer Rattler into mistakes, and eventually forced the Saints to bench him for Shough. But Moore learned. By the second game, he used Shough's mobility to neutralize the Bucs' pass rush. If Vita Vea and Calijah Kancey got too deep in the backfield, Shough just tucked it and ran for 20 yards.
It’s a classic battle of old-school defensive grit versus new-school offensive flexibility.
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What Most People Get Wrong About Tampa Bay vs New Orleans
There's this narrative that the Saints are "rebuilding" and the Bucs are "contending." In reality, the gap is way smaller than the records suggest.
The Saints finished 2025 on a four-game winning streak. They played their best football when the stakes were highest for everyone else. They didn't make the playoffs, but they basically decided who did make it. Because the Saints beat Tampa in Week 14, it forced a three-way tie atop the NFC South at 8-9 between Tampa, Carolina, and Atlanta.
Think about that. A 6-10 Saints team held the keys to the kingdom.
Actionable Insights for the 2026 Season
If you're betting on or following Tampa Bay vs New Orleans next year, throw the record books out the window. Here is how you actually evaluate these matchups:
- Watch the "Home-and-Home" Splits: These teams almost never sweep each other anymore. Since 2022, the "split" has become the standard. If one team wins big in the first game, expect the other to come back with a vengeance in the second.
- Monitor the Rookie QB Progression: Tyler Shough proved he’s the "Bucs-Killer" of the future. If he starts both games in 2026, the Saints have a massive mobility advantage that Bowles’ defense struggled to contain.
- Third-Down Conversions are the Only Stat That Matters: In every 2025 matchup, the team that converted over 40% of their third downs won. It’s that simple. The Bucs' failure to convert short-yardage plays in December was their undoing.
- The Marshon Lattimore/Mike Evans Dynamic: Keep an eye on the injury report. If one of these two is out, the entire offensive/defensive game plan for both teams changes. This matchup dictates the geometry of the whole field.
The 2025 season ended with the Buccaneers technically winning the division at 8-9, thanks to a Week 18 win over Carolina and the Saints doing them a "favor" by beating Atlanta. It was a messy, loud, and confusing finish—which is exactly how a rivalry like this should be.
To stay ahead of the curve for the 2026 meetings, focus on the Saints' defensive line health and whether the Bucs can find a consistent secondary rushing option to help Bucky Irving. The ground game, surprisingly, has become the deciding factor in a rivalry once defined by Drew Brees and Tom Brady.