Honestly, if you looked at the standings right now, you’d think the Tampa Bay Lightning vs NY Islanders games would be a foregone conclusion. Tampa is currently sitting atop the Eastern Conference with 61 points, riding the kind of high that makes them look like the juggernaut that won back-to-back Cups. But then you look at the head-to-head results from December, and things get confusing. Real confusing.
The Islanders beat them. Three times. In two weeks.
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It started on December 2, 2025, with a gritty 2-1 Islanders win that snapped a seven-game Lightning winning streak. Then came a 2-0 shutout at the Benchmark International Arena (Amalie Arena) on December 6, where Ilya Sorokin basically turned into a brick wall. To cap it off, on December 13, the Isles took a 3-2 shootout win at UBS Arena. How does a team leading the conference get swept in a December season series by a team fighting for a wild card spot?
Hockey is weird. That's the short answer. The long answer involves a mix of Patrick Roy’s defensive structure, a rookie defenseman named Matthew Schaefer making everyone look silly, and the fact that the Islanders seem to have found the "off" switch for Nikita Kucherov.
The Sorokin Factor: What Most People Get Wrong
People love to talk about the Islanders' defense as this "boring" trap system. It’s not boring; it’s calculated. And at the center of it is Ilya Sorokin. During that December 13 game, Tampa outshot New York 17-1 in the second period. Read that again. One shot for the Islanders. Seventeen for the Bolts.
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And yet, the period ended with the Islanders still in the lead.
Sorokin made 32 saves that night. He didn't just stop pucks; he demoralized the Lightning's top six. When you have Jake Guentzel—who has been a revelation since signing that massive seven-year deal—and Nikita Kucherov (currently leading the Bolts with 61 points) coming at you, most goalies blink. Sorokin doesn't. He’s currently tied for the most shutouts in Islanders history with Chico Resch, and he’s doing it against the most high-powered offenses in the league.
The New Blood Changing the Dynamic
We have to talk about Matthew Schaefer. Most people didn't have the rookie defenseman on their radar as a game-changer this early, but the kid is quarterbacking the power play like a ten-year vet. He scored the opening goal in that last Tampa Bay Lightning vs NY Islanders meeting through the legs of Jonas Johansson.
On the other side, Tampa’s lineup has shifted. Gone is the Steven Stamkos era, replaced by the relentless production of Jake Guentzel. Guentzel leads the team in goals and sits second in points (44). He’s been exactly what Julien BriseBois hoped for: a clinical finisher who fits perfectly with Brayden Point’s speed.
But even with that firepower, Tampa’s depth took a hit with injuries to Zemgus Girgensons and Nick Paul earlier in the season. It forced guys like Gage Goncalves into elevated roles. While Goncalves has been solid, the Islanders' "Identity Line" types—guys like Casey Cizikas—have been feasting on those matchups. Cizikas even managed an empty-netter on December 6 to seal a 2-0 win while he was so gassed he could barely skate back to the bench.
Tactical Breakdown: Why Tampa Struggles With the Isles
Jon Cooper is arguably the best coach in the world. He’s got eleven of his players headed to the 2026 Winter Olympics in Italy. But Patrick Roy seems to have found a specific crack in the Lightning’s armor.
- Neutral Zone Clogging: The Islanders aren't letting the Lightning use their speed. Brayden Point thrives on north-south transition. Roy has the Islanders playing a hybrid system that forces Tampa to dump the puck, which plays right into the hands of big, physical blueliners like Adam Pelech and Ryan Pulock.
- The Power Play Vacuum: Tampa’s power play is usually lethal. However, in their recent meetings, the Isles have limited high-danger chances by staying compact. Darren Raddysh managed a 5-on-3 goal in mid-December, but otherwise, the Bolts have been frustrated.
- Goaltending Variance: Andrei Vasilevskiy is still a god in Tampa, but he’s had a heavy workload. Jonas Johansson got the start in the December 13 loss, and while he wasn't "bad," he wasn't Sorokin. In a matchup this tight, that 2% difference in save percentage is the whole game.
The J.J. Moser and Darren Raddysh Evolution
One bright spot for Tampa in this specific rivalry has been the emergence of J.J. Moser and Darren Raddysh as genuine offensive threats from the back end. Raddysh was named the Bolts' Best Player of the Month in early January for a reason. He’s got a heavy slap shot that finally beat Sorokin on that 5-on-3.
Moser, for his part, showed some serious ice water in his veins when he tied the December 13 game late in the third period. It was a clean faceoff win by Tampa, a quick slide from Kucherov, and Moser beat Sorokin over the glove. It’s these depth contributions that have kept Tampa at #1 in the East despite their struggles against the Islanders.
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What This Means for the Playoffs
If the season ended today, these two teams probably wouldn't meet in the first round. Tampa is locked into a top seed, while the Islanders are hovering around the 5th spot in the East with 55 points. But a second-round matchup? That’s where things get terrifying for Lightning fans.
The Islanders are built for the postseason. They play a heavy, low-scoring game that translates well to the "whistle-swallowing" officiating of May and June. They’ve proven they can beat Tampa in a three-game stretch. Doing it four times in seven games is a different beast, but the blueprint is there.
Actionable Insights for Fans and Bettors
If you’re watching the next Tampa Bay Lightning vs NY Islanders game, keep an eye on these specific trends:
- The First Ten Minutes: The Islanders have been jumping on Tampa early. In their last win, they were up 2-0 before the first period was halfway over. If Tampa doesn't survive the initial surge at UBS Arena, they tend to spiral into a "catch-up" mode that results in risky turnovers.
- The Guentzel-Barzal Tradeoff: Watch the matchup between Jake Guentzel and Mathew Barzal. Barzal has been the face of the Isles' offense, while Guentzel is the new spearhead for Tampa. Whichever of these two stars manages to create more 5-on-5 chances usually dictates the outcome.
- Live Betting Value: If Tampa goes down by one in the second period, don't count them out. They outshot the Isles 17-1 in a single period recently. They have the "burst" potential to score three goals in four minutes. The "under" is often a trap in this matchup because of Tampa's late-game desperation.
The next time these two face off, forget the standings. Ignore the "on paper" advantage. The Islanders have found a way to make the Lightning look human, and until Tampa proves they can solve the Sorokin puzzle, this remains the most lopsided "top vs. middle" rivalry in the NHL.
Keep a close eye on the injury reports for Anthony Cirelli and Brandon Hagel leading up to the next clash. Their two-way play is the only thing that consistently disrupts the Islanders' cycle. If they're at 100%, Tampa might finally break the streak.